Caitlin Treanor

Economic Commentaries

• Economic Commentary

  Labor Market Tightness across the United States since the Great Recession

  Murat Tasci Caitlin Treanor
  01.16.2018 | EC 2018-01
  Though labor market statistics are often reported and discussed at the national level, conditions can vary quite a bit across individual states. We explore differences in these labor market conditions across US states before and after the Great Recession using a ratio of the number of unemployed workers to job vacancies. We show that the intensity of the adverse effects of the recession and the strength of the recovery varied geographically at all points in the process. We also demonstrate that wage growth is delayed until the ratio of unemployed workers to job vacancies returns to prerecession levels.
  
  Topics: Labor economics
  
• Economic Commentary

  The State of States’ Unemployment in the Fourth District

  Murat Tasci Caitlin Treanor Christopher Vecchio
  01.19.2017 | EC 2017-02
  Evaluating what constitutes a "normal" level for the unemployment rate is an important issue for policymakers, who need to assess how close the economy is to full employment. We introduce a framework that enables us to calculate the normal unemployment rate for each of the four states in the Fourth District and compare that rate to the national normal rate. We conclude that these states and the District as a whole have very little labor market slack left from the Great Recession.
  
  Topics: Labor economics
  
• Economic Commentary

  Geographic Mobility and Consumer Financial Health: Evidence from Oil Production Boom Towns

  Rawley Z. Heimer Timothy Stehulak Caitlin Treanor
  11.16.2016 | EC 2016-13
  One way a household might handle financial distress is to relocate to another area that offers greater income opportunities. This article examines the impact of geographic mobility on consumer finances by focusing on the residents of "boom towns" - areas that saw a surge of growth in oil-drilling activity around 2010 and a bust thereafter. We find that residents who move after the bust experience stronger consumer financial health than residents who stay put.
  
  Topics: Financial well-being
  
• Economic Commentary

  Federal Funds Rates Based on Seven Simple Monetary Policy Rules

  Edward S. Knotek II Randal J. Verbrugge Christian Garciga Caitlin Treanor Saeed Zaman
  07.11.2016 | EC 2016-07
  Monetary policymakers often use simple monetary policy rules, like the Taylor rule, as an input into their decision-making. However, there are many different simple rules, and there is no agreement on a single “best” rule. We look at the federal funds rates coming from seven simple rules and three economic forecasts to investigate the range of results that can be produced. While there are some commonalities, we document that the differences in the federal funds rates suggested by the rules can be quite pronounced.
  
  Topics: Monetary policy
  
• Economic Commentary

  Forecasting Unemployment in Real Time during the Great Recession: An Elusive Task

  Murat Tasci Caitlin Treanor
  11.30.2015 | EC 2015-15
  In the aftermath of the Great Recession, many researchers, analysts, and policymakers have taken a keener interest in the unemployment rate not only as a gauge of current economic conditions, but also as a variable of interest for forecasting.
  
  Topics: Econometrics, modeling, and forecasting