Mehmet Pasaogullari

In this paper, I present a method for forecasting from a reduced-form VAR under the zero lower bound (ZLB) for the short-term nominal interest rate.

We propose a DSGE model with regime switching in the central bank’s inflation target to explain inflation compensation in the UK.

We show that the Fed’s new policy tools have not been perceived by professional forecasters or financial markets as harbingers of hyperinflation.

We analyze the accuracy of interest-rate forecasts in the periods before and after the introduction of new monetary policy tools.

Using a variety of statistical tests, we find that adding oil prices does little to improve forecasts of CPI inflation. Our results suggest that higher oil prices today do not necessarily signal higher CPI inflation next year.

There are many ways to forecast the future rate of inflation, ranging from sophisticated statistical models involving hundreds of variables to hunches based on past experience.

Frequently asked questions about inflation ranging from how to achieve price stability to the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate to how to gauge when people are concerned about inflation.