Kristoph Naggert

Economic Commentaries

• Economic Commentary

  The Anchoring of US Inflation Expectations Since 2012

  Kristoph Naggert Robert W. Rich Joseph Tracy
  07.11.2023 | EC 2023-11
  A new measure of inflation expectations’ anchoring finds that medium-run expectations weakened notably during the pandemic before strengthening again recently.
  
  Topics: Inflation
  
• Economic Commentary

  Semiconductor Shortages and Vehicle Production and Prices

  Pawel M. Krolikowski Kristoph Naggert
  07.08.2021 | EC 2021-17
  Vehicle production has fallen since the beginning of the pandemic recession. We investigate reasons for this decline. Manufacturers in this industry cite insufficient materials, including a lack of semiconductors, as increasingly responsible. Demand seems to be less of an issue. In fact, demand has been strong, and together with accelerating prices and sharply declining inventories, it suggests an insufficient supply of new cars. Our best guess is that the materials shortages and their effects on new car prices will subside within the next six to nine months.
• Economic Commentary

  Flexible Average Inflation Targeting and Inflation Expectations: A Look at the Reaction by Professional Forecasters

  Kristoph Naggert Robert W. Rich Joseph Tracy
  04.06.2021 | EC 2021-09
  This Commentary examines the response of longer-run inflation expectations to the FOMC’s August 2020 announced switch to a flexible average inflation-targeting (FAIT) regime. 
  
  Topics: Inflation