Yuliya Demyanyk

Post-crisis stress tests have altered banks’ credit supply to small business. Banks affected by stress tests reduce credit supply and raise interest rates on small business loans. Banks price the implied increase in capital requirements from stress tests where they have local knowledge, and exit markets where they do not, as quantities fall most in markets where stress-tested banks do not own branches near borrowers, and prices rise mainly where they do. These reductions in supply are concentrated among risky borrowers. Stress tests do not, however, reduce aggregate credit. Small banks increase their share in geographies formerly reliant on stress-tested lenders.

This working paper has been removed due to concerns that the underlying data sample used in the analysis does not support the paper’s conclusions.

In this paper, we empirically investigate whether expansionary fiscal stimulus is effective during a consumer-debt-overhang-induced recession. Using transaction-level data on Department of Defense (DOD) spending during the 2007–2009 recessionary period, we document that the open-economy relative fiscal multiplier is higher in geographies with higher pre-recession consumer indebtedness.

This study empirically investigates whether fiscal stimulus is effective during periods of high consumer indebtedness. Using detailed data on Department of Defense spending for the 2006-2009 period, we document that the open-economy relative fiscal multiplier is higher in geographies with higher consumer indebtedness.

Mortgage companies do not fall under the strict regulatory regime of depository institutions. We show that this gap resulted in regulatory arbitrage and allowed bank holding companies to circumvent consumer compliance regulations.

We document that the explanatory power of different factors on consumption varies by subperiods, implying that a successful modeling of this decade needs to allow for multiple causal determinants of consumption.

This paper debunks the common perception that "foreclosure will ruin your credit score."

Mortgage companies do not fall under the strict regulatory regime of depository institutions. We show that this gap resulted in regulatory arbitrage and allowed bank holding companies to circumvent consumer compliance regulations.

Using individual-level credit reports merged with loan-level data on mortgages, we estimate how mobility relates to home equity and labor market conditions.

Mortgage companies do not fall under the strict regulatory regime of depository institutions. We show that this gap resulted in regulatory arbitrage and allowed bank holding companies to circumvent consumer compliance regulations.

Using individual-level credit reports merged with loan-level data on mortgages, we estimate how mobility relates to home equity and labor market conditions.

Mortgage companies do not fall under the strict regulatory regime of depository institutions. We show that this gap resulted in regulatory arbitrage and allowed bank holding companies to circumvent consumer compliance regulations.

Mortgage companies do not fall under the strict regulatory regime of depository institutions. We show that this gap resulted in regulatory arbitrage and allowed bank holding companies to circumvent consumer compliance regulations.

We use a unique data set of borrower-level credit information from TransUnion, which is linked to a database containing detailed information on the borrowers' mortgages, to study links between credit scores and mortgage default.

In this article we provide a summary of empirical results obtained in several economics and operations research papers.

In this article we provide a summary of empirical results obtained in several economics and operations research papers.

The Federal Reserve conducts stress tests of the largest bank holding companies to ensure that the banking system has sufficient capital to stay financially sound in the event of worsening economic conditions. Some groups have raised concerns that the stress tests will reduce lending to small businesses. This article describes recent research investigating the impact of the stress tests on small-business lending. It finds that the banks that are most affected by stress tests have reduced their small-business credit, but aggregate credit to small businesses has not fallen.

This Economic Commentary has been removed due to concerns that the underlying data sample used in the analysis does not support the paper’s conclusions.

We argue that fiscal stimulus funded by public debt is effective for increasing economic activity and employment even in recessions that are caused by overborrowing in the private sector. We analyze the impact of government spending on local economies between 2007 and 2009 and find evidence that the fiscal multiplier is higher in geographical areas characterized by higher individual household debt.

We describe research that quantifies the relative impact of nine significant determinants of consumption growth and find that the explanatory power of these factors varies by period.

New research highlights how disparities in the regulatory treatment of banks and shadow banking organizations before the financial crisis allowed heavily-regulated bank holding companies to lend through their less-regulated subsidiaries.

Some reports have suggested that employers can’t fill job openings in some places because they can’t entice workers to move.

The Great Recession brought an end to a 20-year expansion of consumer debt. In its wake is a lively debate about what caused the turnaround.

Credit scores affect many important aspects of our lives, so it’s no wonder that people are concerned with improving their scores. Once they pay attention to them, though, consumers often find their scores changing in unpredictable ways.

On close inspection many of the most popular explanations for the subprime crisis turn out to be myths. Empirical research shows that the causes of the subprime mortgage crisis and its magnitude were more complicated.

A review of economic history and a thoughtful look at Federal Reserve policies over the past century.