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Daniela Dean Avila

Contributing Author

Daniela Dean Avila is a contributing author and former employee of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

    • Economic Commentaries

      • Economic Commentary
        Underemployment Following the Great Recession and the COVID-19 Recession
        Daniela Dean Avila Kurt G. Lunsford
        02.03.2022 | EC 2022-01
        The underemployment rate, the percent of employed people who are working part-time but prefer to be working full-time, moves closely with the unemployment rate, rising during recessions and falling during expansions. Following the Great Recession, the underemployment rate had stayed persistently elevated when compared to the unemployment rate, that is, until the COVID-19 recession. Since then, it has been consistent with its pre-2008 levels. We find that changes in relative industry size account for essentially none of the underemployment rate increase after the Great Recession nor the underemployment rate decrease after the COVID-19 recession. Based on this finding, we do not expect the underemployment rate to revert to its pre-COVID-19 levels if industry composition reverts to its pre-COVID-19 structure.

        Topics: Labor economics, Econometrics modeling and forecasting