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Yield Curve and Predicted GDP Growth

  • Background: The yield curve—which measures the spread between the yields on short- and long-term maturity bonds—is often used to predict recessions.
  • Description: We use past values of the slope of the yield curve and GDP growth to provide predictions of future GDP growth and the probability that the economy will fall into a recession over the next year.

Percent change from previous month

August July June
3-month Treasury bill rate (percent) 2.71 2.50 1.67
10-year Treasury bond rate (percent) 2.87 2.94 3.17
Yield curve slope (basis points) 16 44 150
Prediction for GDP growth (percent) 1.0 1.9 4.6
Probability of recession in 1 year (percent) 27.0 13.2 4.4

  • Yield-Curve-Predicted GDP Growth
  • Probability of Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve
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