A Regional Economic Forecasting Procedure Applied to Texas

A method for building a time series regional forecasting model is proposed and implemented for the state of Texas. The forecasting ability of this method is subjected to a number of diagnostic tests and is found to be useful. The method places little reliance on economic theory, is available to any regional economist with know1edge of ordinary least squares regression analysis, and provides insights into the regional economic process. This paper complements "Some Time Series Methods of Forecasting the Texas Economy," by Hoehn, Gruben, and Fomby, Working Paper No. 8402, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.