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Video

Is High Productivity Growth Returning? with Cleveland Fed Economist Rob Rich

02.04.2025

Key takeaways

Since World War II, the US economy has shifted between periods of high and low growth in productivity.
A mathematical model used by Rich gives a 40% probability that higher growth in productivity seen since the beginning of 2023 marks the onset of a sustainable trend.
Several more quarters of data are needed to sort out whether factors like AI are driving an enduring surge in productivity or if their impact is being misread.

Video summary

Cleveland Fed Senior Economic and Policy Advisor, Robert Rich, shares findings from his latest Economic Commentary: "Is High Productivity Growth Returning?" with authors Alexander Cline and James A. Kahn.

Productivity growth has shown a notable pickup since the fourth quarter of 2019, and some commentators cite artificial intelligence and other factors as reasons why technological progress can sustain this faster pace. Motivated by this consideration, our researchers use a model designed to detect trend shifts to examine the behavior of productivity growth in the postwar period.

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Is High Productivity Growth Returning?

Economists find preliminary evidence that productivity may be on a higher growth trajectory, contributing to a faster pace of growth for the economy.

Abstract financial graphic, with dollar sign and charts

Inflation 101

Here is your guide to understanding inflation. The Cleveland Fed's Center for Inflation Research provides inflation basics and explanations of inflation essentials for you to explore.