Cleveland Fed research: Comparing the current house-price boom to the one preceding the Great Recession
There are important differences between the current US house-price boom and the one that preceded the Great Recession, according to a new report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
The period of rapid house price increases in the 2000s was most likely driven by expectations about future house-price growth. By contrast, house price increases in the 2020s have been largely driven by increased demand relative to supply. This suggests that house prices may follow a different trajectory than they did in the 2000s, according to Cleveland Fed researchers Lara Loewenstein and Jason Meyer.
Another key difference: The nature of mortgage lending during the 2000s house-price boom exposed financial markets to much more risk.
“While it is impossible to say with certainty, there are reasons to believe that the economy is situated differently than before the Great Financial Crisis of 2007–2008,” they write.
Read the Economic Commentary: Comparing Two House-Price Booms
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland is one of 12 regional Reserve Banks that along with the Board of Governors in Washington DC comprise the Federal Reserve System. Part of the US central bank, the Cleveland Fed participates in the formulation of our nation’s monetary policy, supervises banking organizations, provides payment and other services to financial institutions and to the US Treasury, and performs many activities that support Federal Reserve operations System-wide. In addition, the Bank supports the well-being of communities across the Fourth Federal Reserve District through a wide array of research, outreach, and educational activities.
The Cleveland Fed, with branches in Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, serves an area that comprises Ohio, western Pennsylvania, eastern Kentucky, and the northern panhandle of West Virginia.
Media contact
Chuck Soder, chuck.soder@clev.frb.org, 216.672.2798
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