Cleveland Fed: What’s Driving High and Persistent Inflation?

New research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland finds that strong demand and supply factors—including supply chain disruptions—have been the most significant contributors to high and persistent inflation seen during the pandemic and aftermath.

In “The Impact of Supply Chain Disruptions on Inflation,” researchers Matthew V. Gordon and Todd E. Clark examine the extent to which supply chain disruptions influence inflation compared with other factors, including shocks to demand, interest rates, and financial conditions. Although they conclude that further research is needed to confidently isolate supply chain changes on inflation, they find that both aggregate demand and supply forces, including supply chain disruptions, have driven inflation since the pandemic.

“Supply shocks contributed significantly to unexpected inflation from 2020 through 2022,” Gordon and Clark write. “Other shocks, including to demand and interest rates, also played important roles in the high inflation that began in early 2021.”

Read the Economic Commentary: https://www.clevelandfed.org/publications/economic-commentary/2023/ec-202308-impacts-supply-chain-disruptions-on-inflation

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland is one of 12 regional Reserve Banks that along with the Board of Governors in Washington DC comprise the Federal Reserve System. Part of the US central bank, the Cleveland Fed participates in the formulation of our nation’s monetary policy, supervises banking organizations, provides payment and other services to financial institutions and to the US Treasury, and performs many activities that support Federal Reserve operations System-wide. In addition, the Bank supports the well-being of communities across the Fourth Federal Reserve District through a wide array of research, outreach, and educational activities.

The Cleveland Fed, with branches in Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, serves an area that comprises Ohio, western Pennsylvania, eastern Kentucky, and the northern panhandle of West Virginia.

Media contact

Doug Campbell, doug.campbell@clev.frb.org, 513.455.4479