What are the potential economic impacts of the war in Ukraine on the Fourth District? New Cleveland Fed analysis finds the net change may be modest.

In a new District Data Brief, Cleveland Fed economist Stephan Whitaker examines the trade connections between Ukraine and Russia and the Fourth Federal Reserve District, which includes Ohio, western Pennsylvania, eastern Kentucky, and the northern panhandle of West Virginia, and the potential impacts to the District’s economy.

Supplies to the District will be substantially reduced for several items that Ukraine and Russia export, such as primary metals and fertilizer and consumers should expect prices to rise for these goods, as they have already for petroleum, Whitaker finds. Some industries in the District, including coal mining and corn and soybean farming, could experience increased demand because the trade partners of Ukraine and Russia will need to replace these countries’ exports.

“There are generally alternate global suppliers for many of the goods sold by Ukraine and Russia, so Fourth District firms will probably not be forced to halt production because of lack of materials,” says Whitaker. “As of the end of April 2022, several of our contacts in the steel industry said that prices for various inputs had risen, but they did not expect work stoppages because of the impact of the war, indicating that US steel producers have successfully substituted imported iron and scrap steel from other countries.”

Compared to the District’s gross domestic product, the increase in additional demand for raw materials and products produced in the District is less than one tenth of 1 percent. While there will be winners and losers among the District’s exporters, it appears the net change may be modest.

Read More: Potential Impacts of the War in Ukraine on the Fourth District

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland is one of 12 regional Reserve Banks that along with the Board of Governors in Washington DC comprise the Federal Reserve System. Part of the US central bank, the Cleveland Fed participates in the formulation of our nation’s monetary policy, supervises banking organizations, provides payment and other services to financial institutions and to the US Treasury, and performs many activities that support Federal Reserve operations System-wide. In addition, the Bank supports the well-being of communities across the Fourth Federal Reserve District through a wide array of research, outreach, and educational activities.

The Cleveland Fed, with branches in Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, serves an area that comprises Ohio, western Pennsylvania, eastern Kentucky, and the northern panhandle of West Virginia.

Media contact

Doug Campbell, doug.campbell@clev.frb.org, 513.455.4479