How much more money would you need to offset anticipated price changes over the next 12 months?

That’s the question at the center of a new Cleveland Fed Economic Commentary that takes a new approach to solving an old problem: How to most accurately measure consumers’ expectations for future inflation.

“Instead of directly asking consumers to report what they expect to happen to inflation,” say the researchers, “we ask them to report the income change required over the next 12 months such that they are equally well-off and are able to afford the same basket of goods and services.”

The result is a new, indirect measure of consumer inflation expectations coming from high-frequency surveys conducted by Morning Consult.

The novel survey question, the weekly survey frequency, and the massive weekly sample of 20,000 respondents make this work unique among inflation expectations measures. Regularly updated survey data will be made available in the near future.

Read more: Indirect Consumer Inflation Expectations

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland is one of 12 regional Reserve Banks that along with the Board of Governors in Washington DC comprise the Federal Reserve System. Part of the US central bank, the Cleveland Fed participates in the formulation of our nation’s monetary policy, supervises banking organizations, provides payment and other services to financial institutions and to the US Treasury, and performs many activities that support Federal Reserve operations System-wide. In addition, the Bank supports the well-being of communities across the Fourth Federal Reserve District through a wide array of research, outreach, and educational activities.

The Cleveland Fed, with branches in Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, serves an area that comprises Ohio, western Pennsylvania, eastern Kentucky, and the northern panhandle of West Virginia.

Media contact

Doug Campbell, doug.campbell@clev.frb.org, 513.455.4479