Cleveland Fed researcher measures COVID-19 by mortality rates and percentage changes, finds epidemic in US has a similar mortality rate to those in Europe and is more deadly than in China and South Korea

Comparing the trajectory of the COVID-19 epidemic in the United States to that of other countries can provide important insights into how the virus is progressing in the United States and the effectiveness of our response.

In this report, Cleveland Fed policy economist Joel Elvery argues that cumulative mortality rates and their percentage changes are the best available measures for comparing the trajectory of the COVID-19 epidemic in different countries. Based on these measures, Elvery finds the epidemic in the United States has a similar mortality rate to those in Europe and is more deadly than in China and South Korea.

In a follow-up report, Elvery will present similar trends for US states, particularly those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland’s Fourth District.

Read more: Getting to Accuracy: Measuring COVID-19 by Mortality Rates and Percentage Changes

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland is one of 12 regional Reserve Banks that along with the Board of Governors in Washington DC comprise the Federal Reserve System. Part of the US central bank, the Cleveland Fed participates in the formulation of our nation’s monetary policy, supervises banking organizations, provides payment and other services to financial institutions and to the US Treasury, and performs many activities that support Federal Reserve operations System-wide. In addition, the Bank supports the well-being of communities across the Fourth Federal Reserve District through a wide array of research, outreach, and educational activities.

The Cleveland Fed, with branches in Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, serves an area that comprises Ohio, western Pennsylvania, eastern Kentucky, and the northern panhandle of West Virginia.

Media contact

Doug Campbell, doug.campbell@clev.frb.org, 513.455.4479