Cleveland Fed researchers review trends in inflation expectations

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland researchers review several measures of inflation expectations and find that:

• There has been a limited rise in short-term inflation expectations.
• Long-term inflation expectations are either rising slightly or falling quite a bit, depending on the measure consulted.

"Survey measures suggest that long-term inflation expectations have been largely stable or increasing only slightly over the last six months. In contrast, market measures of long-term inflation expectations showed large declines recently, possibly due to liquidity and inflation premiums among other things," say researchers Mehmet Pasaogullari and Sara Millington.

Read Survey and Market Measures of Inflation Expectations

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland is one of 12 regional Reserve Banks that along with the Board of Governors in Washington DC comprise the Federal Reserve System. Part of the US central bank, the Cleveland Fed participates in the formulation of our nation’s monetary policy, supervises banking organizations, provides payment and other services to financial institutions and to the US Treasury, and performs many activities that support Federal Reserve operations System-wide. In addition, the Bank supports the well-being of communities across the Fourth Federal Reserve District through a wide array of research, outreach, and educational activities.

The Cleveland Fed, with branches in Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, serves an area that comprises Ohio, western Pennsylvania, eastern Kentucky, and the northern panhandle of West Virginia.

Media contact

Doug Campbell, doug.campbell@clev.frb.org, 513.218.1892