Impact of Govt Shutdown on CPI; Inflation Expectations; Household Debt: Cleveland Fed Researchers

Economic Trends

Inflation Estimates: Implications of the Government Shutdown

The government shutdown will impact the accuracy of the monthly CPI estimates for at least seven months. However, year-over-year inflation estimates will continue to be quite reliable.

Short-and Long-Term Inflation Expectations

Market-based measures of inflation expectations suggest that investors expect lower inflation in the medium and long term, while short-term expectations measures are mixed.

Consumer Debt and the Housing Market

Household debt has been shrinking since 2009, and the latest data show the trend continues. However, two components of consumer debt rose in the second quarter of this year: auto loans and student loans.

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland is one of 12 regional Reserve Banks that along with the Board of Governors in Washington DC comprise the Federal Reserve System. Part of the US central bank, the Cleveland Fed participates in the formulation of our nation’s monetary policy, supervises banking organizations, provides payment and other services to financial institutions and to the US Treasury, and performs many activities that support Federal Reserve operations System-wide. In addition, the Bank supports the well-being of communities across the Fourth Federal Reserve District through a wide array of research, outreach, and educational activities.

The Cleveland Fed, with branches in Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, serves an area that comprises Ohio, western Pennsylvania, eastern Kentucky, and the northern panhandle of West Virginia.

Media contact

Doug Campbell, doug.campbell@clev.frb.org, 513.218.1892