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Todd E. Clark
Person

Todd E. Clark

Senior Vice President
Areas of Expertise macroeconomics, time-series econometrics, forecasting
Department Research
Education
  • AB,
  • Economics and Mathematics,
  • Wabash College,
  • 1985
  • MA,
  • Economics,
  • University of Michigan,
  • 1988
  • PhD,
  • Economics,
  • University of Michigan,
  • 1992

Todd Clark is a senior vice president in the Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. He leads the department’s macroeconomics group.

Dr. Clark joined the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in 1992 as an economist. He was appointed senior economist in 1996, promoted to assistant vice president in 1999, named vice president in 2003, and appointed the head of the Kansas City Reserve Bank’s macroeconomics group in 2007. In 2010, he joined the Cleveland Reserve Bank as a vice president and in 2017 assumed his current position.

Dr. Clark specializes in research related to macroeconomics and economic forecasting. He has published research on a variety of topics, including the measurement of inflation, forecasting methods, the evaluation of forecasts, and measuring uncertainty. He served as co-editor of the Journal of Business and Economic Statistics from 2016 to 2018 and continues to serve as an associate editor of the Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking. In 2019, Dr. Clark was elected as a fellow of the International Association of Applied Econometrics.

A native of Indiana, Dr. Clark holds a BA in economics and mathematics from Wabash College and an MA and a PhD in economics from the University of Michigan.

Featured Publications

  • “Capturing Macroeconomic Tail Risks with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions.” With Andrea Carriero and Massimiliano Marcellino. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, forthcoming.
  • “Addressing COVID-19 Outliers in BVARs with Stochastic Volatility.” With Andrea Carriero, Elmar Mertens, and Massimiliano Marcellino. Review of Economics and Statistics, forthcoming.
  • “Using Time-Varying Volatility for Identification in Vector Autoregressions: Endogenous Uncertainty.” With Andrea Carriero and Massimiliano Marcellino. Journal of Econometrics, 2021, 225(1): 47-73.
  • "Tail Forecasting with Multivariate Bayesian Additive Regression Trees.” With Florian Huber, Gary Koop, Massimiliano Marcellino, and Michael Pfarrhofer, International Economic Review, forthcoming.
  • “Capturing Macroeconomic Tail Risks with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions.” With Andrea Carriero and Massimiliano Marcellino. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, forthcoming.
  • “Addressing COVID-19 Outliers in BVARs with Stochastic Volatility.” With Andrea Carriero, Elmar Mertens, and Massimiliano Marcellino. Review of Economics and Statistics, forthcoming.
  • “Macroeconomic Forecasting in a Multi-Country Context.” With Yu Bai, Andrea Carriero, and Massimiliano Marcellino. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2022, 37(6): 1230-1255.
  • “Nowcasting Tail Risks to Economic Activity at a Weekly Frequency.” With Andrea Carriero and Massimiliano Marcellino. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2022, 37(5): 843-866.
  • “Corrigendum to ‘Large Bayesian Vector Autoregressions with Stochastic Volatility and Non-Conjugate Priors.’” With Andrea Carriero and Massimiliano Marcellino. Journal of Econometrics, 2022, 227(2), 506-512.
  • “Using Time-Varying Volatility for Identification in Vector Autoregressions: Endogenous Uncertainty.” With Andrea Carriero and Massimiliano Marcellino. Journal of Econometrics, 2021, 225(1): 47-73.
  • “No Arbitrage Priors, Drifting Volatilities, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates.” With Andrea Carriero and Massimiliano Marcellino. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2021, 36(5): 495-516.
  • “Assessing International Commonality in Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Its Effects.” With Andrea Carriero and Massimiliano Marcellino. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2020, 35(3): 273-293.
  • “Modeling Time–Varying Uncertainty of Multiple–Horizon Forecast Errors.” With Michael W. McCracken and Elmar Mertens. Review of Economics and Statistics, 2020, 102(1): 17–33.
  • “Large Bayesian Vector Autoregressions with Stochastic Volatility and Non-Conjugate Priors.” With Andrea Carriero and Massimiliano Marcellino. Journal of Econometrics, 2019, 212(1): 137-154.
  • “A New Model of Inflation, Trend Inflation, and Long–Run Inflation Expectations.” With Joshua Chan and Gary Koop. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 2018, 50(1): 5-53.
  • “Measuring Uncertainty and Its Impact on the Economy.” With Andrea Carriero and Massimiliano Marcellino. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2018, 100(5): 799–815.
  • “Have Standard VARs Remained Stable since the Crisis?” With Knut Are Aastveit, Andrea Carriero, and Massimiliano Marcellino. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2017 (August).
  • “Using Entropic Tilting to Combine BVAR Forecasts with External Nowcasts.” With Fabian Krueger and Francesco Ravazzolo. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 2017 (July).
  • “Tests of Predictive Ability for Vector Autoregressions Used for Conditional Forecasting.” With Michael W. McCracken. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2017 (April/May).
  • “Common Drifting Volatility in Large Bayesian VARs.” With Andrea Carriero and Massimiliano Marcellino. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 2016 (July).
  • “Real–Time Nowcasting with a Bayesian Mixed Frequency Model with Stochastic Volatility.” With Andrea Carriero and Massimiliano Marcellino. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A, 2015 (October).
  • “Nested Forecast Model Comparisons: A New Approach to Testing Equal Accuracy.” With Michael W. McCracken. Journal of Econometrics, 2015 (May).
  • “Macroeconomic Forecasting Performance under Alternative Specifications of Time-Varying Volatility.” With Francesco Ravazzolo. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2015 (June/July).
  • “Bayesian VARs: Specification Choices and Forecast Accuracy.” With Andrea Carriero and Massimiliano Marcellino. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2015 (January).
  • “Evaluating Alternative Models of Trend Inflation.” With Taeyoung Doh. International Journal of Forecasting, 2014 (July–September).
  • “Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy for Overlapping Models.” With Michael W. McCracken. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2014 (April/May).
  • “In–Sample Tests of Predictive Ability: A New Approach.” With Michael W. McCracken. Journal of Econometrics, 2012 (September).
  • “Reality Checks and Comparisons of Nested Predictive Models.” With Michael W. McCracken. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 2012 (January): 53–66.
  • “Decomposing the Declining Volatility of Long–Term Inflation Expectations.” With Troy Davig. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2011 (July): 981–999.
  • “Real–Time Density Forecasts from VARs with Stochastic Volatility.” Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 2011 (July): 327–341.
  • “Time Variation in the Inflation Passthrough of Energy Prices.” With Stephen J. Terry. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 2010 (October): 1419–1433.
  • “Averaging Forecasts from VARs with Uncertain Instabilities.” With Michael W. McCracken. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2010 (January–February): 5–29.
  • “Tests of Equal Predictive Ability with Real–Time Data.” With Michael W. McCracken, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 2009 (October): 441–454.
  • “Combining Forecasts from Nested Models.” With Michael W. McCracken. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2009 (June): 303–329.
  • “Improving Forecast Accuracy by Combining Recursive and Rolling Forecasts.” With Michael W. McCracken. International Economic Review, 2009 (May): 363–395.
  • “Approximately Normal Tests for Equal Predictive Accuracy in Nested Models.” With Kenneth D. West. Journal of Econometrics, 2007 (May): 291–311.
  • “Using Out–of–Sample Mean Squared Prediction Errors to Test the Martingale Difference Hypothesis.” With Kenneth D. West. Journal of Econometrics, 2006 (November): 155–186.
  • “Disaggregate Evidence on the Persistence of Consumer Price Inflation.” Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2006 (July/August): 563–587.
  • “The Predictive Content of the Output Gap for Inflation: Resolving In–Sample and Out–of–Sample Evidence.” With Michael W. McCracken. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 2006 (August): 1127–1148.
  • “Estimating Equilibrium Real Interest Rates in Real Time.” With Sharon Kozicki. North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 2005 (December): 395–413.
  • “Evaluating Direct Multistep Forecasts.” With Michael W. McCracken. Econometric Reviews, 2005 (October): 369–404.
  • “The Power of Tests of Predictive Ability in the Presence of Structural Breaks.” With Michael W. McCracken. Journal of Econometrics, 2005 (January): 1–31.
  • “Can Out–of–Sample Forecast Comparisons Help Prevent Overfitting?’ Journal of Forecasting, 2004 (March): 115–139.
  • “Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy and Encompassing for Nested Models.” With Michael W. McCracken. Journal of Econometrics, 2001 (November): 85–110.
  • “Borders and Business Cycles.” With Eric van Wincoop. Journal of International Economics, 2001 (October): 59–85.
  • “Forecasting an Aggregate of Cointegrated Disaggregates.” Journal of Forecasting, 2000 (January): 1–21.
  • “Finite–Sample Properties of Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy.” Journal of Forecasting, 1999 (December): 489–504.
  • “The Responses of Prices at Different Stages of Production to Monetary Policy Shocks.” The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1999 (August): 420–433.
  • “Employment Fluctuations in US Regions and Industries: The Roles of National, Region–Specific, and Industry–Specific Shocks.” Journal of Labor Economics, 1998 (January): 202–229.
  • “Cross–Country Evidence on Long–Run Growth and Inflation.” Economic Inquiry, 1997 (January): 70–81.
  • “Small Sample Properties of Estimators of Nonlinear Models of Covariance Structure.” Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 1996 (July): 367–373.
  • “Rents and Prices of Housing across Areas of the US: A Cross–Section Examination of the Present Value Model.” Regional Science and Urban Economics, 1995 (April): 237–247.

Book Chapters

  • “Evaluating the Accuracy of Forecasts from Vector Autoregressions.” With Michael W. McCracken. In Advances in Econometrics: VAR Models in Macroeconomics, Financial Econometrics, and Forecasting—New Developments and Applications. Emerald Insights. 2013.
  • “Advances in Forecast Evaluation.” With Michael W. McCracken. In Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Volume 2, 1107–1201. North Holland. 2013.
  • “Testing for Unconditional Predictive Ability.” With Michael W. McCracken. In Oxford Handbook on Economic Forecasting, edited by D. Hendry and M. Clements, 415-440. Oxford University Press. 2011.
  • “Forecasting with Small Macroeconomic VARs in the Presence of Instabilities.” With Michael W. McCracken. In Forecasting in the Presence of Structural Breaks and Model Uncertainty, edited by D. Rapach and M. Wohar, 93–147. Emerald Publishing. 2008.
  • “The Sources of Fluctuations within and across Countries.” With Kwanho Shin. In Intranational Macroeconomics, edited by G. Hess and E. van Wincoop, 189–217. Cambridge University Press, 2000.

Other Federal Reserve Publications

  • “Is the Great Moderation Over? An Empirical Analysis.” Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Economic Review, 2009 (Fourth Quarter).
  • “Has the Behavior of Inflation and Long-Term Inflation Expectations Changed?” With Taisuke Nakata. Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Economic Review, 2008 (First Quarter).
  • “The Trend Growth Rate of Employment: Past, Present, and Future.” With Taisuke Nakata. Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Economic Review, 2006 (First Quarter).
  • “An Evaluation of the Decline in Goods Inflation.” Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Economic Review, 2004 (Second Quarter).
  • “Comparing Measures of Core Inflation.” Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Economic Review, 2001 (Second Quarter).
  • “A Comparison of the CPI and the PCE Price Index.” Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Economic Review, 1999 (Third Quarter).
  • “Progress toward Price Stability: A 1997 Inflation Report.” Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Economic Review, 1998 (First Quarter).
  • “US Inflation Developments in 1996.” Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Economic Review, 1997 (First Quarter).
  • “Sources of New York Employment Fluctuations: Commentary.” Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Economic Policy Review, 1997 (February).
  • “US Inflation Developments in 1995.” Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Economic Review, 1996 (First Quarter).
  • “Do Producer Prices Lead Consumer Prices?” Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Economic Review, 1995 (Third Quarter).
  • “Nominal GDP Targeting Rules: Can They Stabilize the Economy?” Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Economic Review, 1994 (Third Quarter).