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TIPS Expected Inflation Estimates

The yields on two different kinds of Treasury securities—nominal treasury notes and treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) can be used to calculate a measure of inflation expectations. Because the market's expectations for inflation are priced into one of these securities, the measure that is derived from the yields is a good estimate of the market's estimate of future inflation. The calculation involves correcting for some biases, and the method is described here. The measure is charted below and for comparison a series that has not been corrected for the biases is charted alongside. You can also chart two other measures of inflation expectations,too.

Click here to view/download the entire TIPS data text file

Chart [Customize Chart]	TIPS
10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2005/1 Percent 2.502   10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2005/2 Percent 2.533   10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2005/3 Percent 2.714   10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2005/4 Percent 2.637   10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2005/5 Percent 2.5   10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2005/6 Percent 2.333   10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2005/7 Percent 2.301   10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2005/8 Percent 2.367   10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2005/9 Percent 2.5   10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2005/10 Percent 2.518   10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2005/11 Percent 2.469   10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2005/12 Percent 2.34   10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2006/1 Percent 2.401   10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2006/2 Percent 2.519   10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2006/3 Percent 2.525   10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2006/4 Percent 2.579   10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2006/5 Percent 2.665   10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2006/6 Percent 2.576   10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2006/7 Percent 2.576   10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2006/8 Percent 2.581   10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2006/9 Percent 2.391   10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2006/10 Percent 2.309   10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2006/11 Percent 2.3   10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2006/12 Percent 2.308   10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2007/1 Percent 2.32   10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2007/2 Percent 2.363   10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2007/3 Percent 2.388   10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2007/4 Percent 2.437   10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2007/5 Percent 2.375   10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2007/6 Percent 2.413   10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2007/7 Percent 2.358   10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2007/8 Percent 2.232   10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2007/9 Percent 2.262   10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2007/10 Percent 2.315   10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2007/11 Percent 2.382   10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2007/12 Percent 2.306   10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2008/1 Percent 2.254   10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2008/2 Percent 2.342   10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2008/3 Percent 2.413   10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2008/4 Percent 2.328   10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2008/5 Percent 2.456   10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2008/6 Percent 2.504   10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2008/7 Percent 2.432   10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2008/8 Percent 2.211   10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2008/9 Percent 2.024   Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2005/1 Percent 2.468   Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2005/2 Percent 2.439   Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2005/3 Percent 2.727   Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2005/4 Percent 2.558   Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2005/5 Percent 2.333   Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2005/6 Percent 2.096   Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2005/7 Percent 1.996   Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2005/8 Percent 2.167   Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2005/9 Percent 2.389   Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2005/10 Percent 2.491   Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2005/11 Percent 2.669   Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2005/12 Percent 2.461   Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2006/1 Percent 2.327   Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2006/2 Percent 2.509   Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2006/3 Percent 2.599   Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2006/4 Percent 2.488   Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2006/5 Percent 2.537   Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2006/6 Percent 2.421   Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2006/7 Percent 2.245   Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2006/8 Percent 2.277   Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2006/9 Percent 2.169   Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2006/10 Percent 1.983   Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2006/11 Percent 1.935   Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2006/12 Percent 1.975   Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2007/1 Percent 1.98   Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2007/2 Percent 2.14   Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2007/3 Percent 2.259   Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2007/4 Percent 2.262   Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2007/5 Percent 2.182   Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2007/6 Percent 2.277   Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2007/7 Percent 2.22   Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2007/8 Percent 2.504   Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2007/9 Percent 2.374   Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2007/10 Percent 2.32   Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2007/11 Percent 2.763   Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2007/12 Percent 2.904   Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2008/1 Percent 2.861   Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2008/2 Percent 3.194   Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2008/3 Percent 3.326   Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2008/4 Percent 3.213   Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2008/5 Percent 3.325   Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2008/6 Percent 3.361   Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2008/7 Percent 3.236   Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2008/8 Percent 2.954   Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Date Range (monthly: yyyy/mm) 2008/9 Percent 2.749 Include Liquidity Premium series in the Download   Source(s): Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Note: Household inflation expectations (5-10 years ahead) series is for charting purposes only. It cannot be downloaded from here as we don't have permission to redistribute.
Customize Chart
1. Choose one or more data series 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Adjusted 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation Household inflation expectations (5-10 years ahead) SPF expected inflation over the next 10 years	2. Time Frame:   Start Date:   End Date:  3. Frequency:   daily  monthly  quarterly  yearly