| Title |
Date |
Publication |
Author(s) |
Type |
| Employment Report
|
July, 2008 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Nonfarm payroll employment fell by 62,000 in June, its sixth consecutive monthly decline. The only other time nonfarm payrolls have strung together this many consecutive monthly decreases not encompassed by a NBER-dated recession was during World War II (from December 1943 to September 1944). Since the beginning of the year, nonfarm payrolls have trimmed 438,000 jobs. Employment in the goods–producing industry fell by 69,000 in June, with construction losing 43,000 jobs and manufacturing trimming 33,000 (natural resource and logging gained 7,000). Private service–providing payrolls decreased by 22,000 during the month, following a loss of 37,000 in May, with the largest decrease coming from employment services (−58,900). Education, health, leisure, and hospitality services combined to add 53,000 in June.
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| Factory Orders
|
July, 2008 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: New orders for manufactured goods increased 0.6 percent (nonannualized rate) in May, following a 1.3 percent increase in April. New orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft fell 0.4 percent during the month but are up 2.4 percent over the past 12 months. Shipments for all manufacturing industries were flat in May, and unfilled orders ticked up 0.9 percent. Inventories increased 0.5 percent in May, after remaining virtually unchanged in April, and are up 6.1 percent over the past 12 months.
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| May Price Statistics
|
July, 2008 |
|
Brent Meyer; Michael F Bryan; |
Economic Trends |
| Abstract: The CPI rose 8.1 percent (annualized rate) in May, pushed up, in part, by a 67.8 percent increase in energy components. Over the past three months, the CPI is up 4.9 percent. Looking forward, professional forecasts see headline consumer prices remaining elevated throughout the rest of 2008 and falling to 2.4 percent by the end of 2009.
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| ISM Manufacturing
|
July, 2008 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: The ISM manufacturing index rose 0.6 points to 50.2 in June, rising above the threshold of 50 (which indicates that the manufacturing economy is expanding, according to the ISM), after four consecutive months of contraction. The overall ISM diffusion index gives equal weights to five subindexes: new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories. The increase in the overall ISM index in June was mostly due to an increase in the inventories index of 6.7 percent (nonannualized) to a value of 51.2, combined with a 2.6 percent increase in supplier deliveries. The new orders and production indexes were virtually unchanged during the month, while the employment index dropped 1.8 points to 43.7, its lowest index value since May 2003. The ISM also constructs indexes that do not factor into the composite manufacturing index, such as the prices index (not seasonally adjusted), which jumped 4.5 points to 91.5 in June (nearing the series high it reached in July 1979 of 93.2).
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| CPI
|
June, 2008 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: The CPI rose 8.1 percent (annualized rate) in May, pushed up by a 67.8 percent increase in energy components. Over the past 12 months, the CPI is up 4.2 percent. Excluding food and energy (core) the CPI increased 2.5 percent in May, following a 1.3 percent increase in April. There was an unusual amount of dispersion between the median and 16 percent trimmed-mean CPI in May, as the 16 percent trimmed-mean measure rose 4.0 percent, while the median CPI increased just 2.2 percent. Looking at the component distribution reveals that nearly 36 percent of the CPI’s components rose at rates in excess of 5.0 percent during the month. This, coupled with 38 percent of the index rising at rates less than 1 percent, shows that 74 percent of the CPI was in the tails of the component price distribution, and the 16 percent trimmed-mean incorporated some of those wild component price swings, while the median CPI did not. Over the past 12 months, both trimmed-mean measures of underlying inflation have risen 3.0 percent.
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| Consumer Sentiment
|
June, 2008 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: The University of Michigan?s Index of Consumer Sentiment fell to a 28-year low of 56.7 in June, down 3.1 points from May. While both the current conditions and consumer expectations components fell during the month, the current conditions component fell further, from 73.3 to 68.7. Average inflation expectations in both the short– and long-term ticked down in June—at 6.6 percent and 3.9 percent, respectively—but remain elevated compared to the past few years.
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| Retail Sales
|
June, 2008 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Total retail sales rose 12.9 percent (annualized rate) in May, beating expectations of a modest gain, and following an upwardly revised gain of 5.0 percent (from −2.2 percent) in April. Over the past three months, retail sales are up 8.0 percent. Retail sales excluding motor vehicles increased 15.1 percent in May, after a 12.8 percent increase last month. Sales at building material, garden equipment, and supply dealers jumped up 33.5 percent during the month, but are still down 3.2 percent over the past 12 months. Sales at gasoline stations, most likely driven by price effects, increased 35.6 percent in May.
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| Import and Export Prices
|
June, 2008 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Import prices continued to surge ahead in May, rising 30.9 percent (annualized rate), following an upwardly revised 32.9 percent jump in April. Over the past three months, import prices are up 35.4 percent. Petroleum import prices continue to soar, up 147.0 percent in May and 98.1 percent in April. Nonpetroleum imports rose 6.6 percent in May, a month after posting their largest increase on record (17.4 percent). Nonpetroleum import prices have shot up 6.6 percent over the past 12 months. Export prices, which have averaged increases of 12.6 percent over the past three months, rose 3.9 percent in May.
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| Productivity and Costs
|
June, 2008 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Nonfarm business sector productivity (output per hour of all persons) rose at an annualized rate of 2.6 percent in the first quarter, according to the revised release, up from a preliminary growth rate of 2.2 percent. The revision was primarily due to an upward adjustment to output, from 0.4 percent to 0.7 percent, as the revised estimate for hours worked—a decline of 1.8 percent—remained the same as the preliminary. Compensation per hour was revised up to a 4.9 percent increase, from one of 4.4 percent in the preliminary release. After adjusting for price effects, compensation per hour rose slightly, up 0.6 percent during the first quarter. Unit labor costs, a measure some use to detect the onset of inflationary pressures, increased 2.2 percent in the first quarter, down from a 2.8 percent increase in the fourth quarter. Over the past 4 four quarters, unit labor costs are up only 0.7 percent.
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| Factory Orders
|
June, 2008 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: New orders for manufactured goods increased 1.1 percent (nonannualized rate) in April, following a 1.5 percent increase in March. New orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft—which had decreased in each of the past three months—jumped up 4.0 percent in April. This is a slight downward revision from the advance report on durable goods, which had the series increasing 4.2 percent in April. Over the past 12 months, new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft have risen 2.2 percent. Shipments for all manufacturing industries rose 2.2 percent during the month and are up 5.0 percent over the past 12 months. Overall manufacturing inventories were flat in April, but inventories of consumer goods fell 1.8 percent, their largest contraction since February 2001.
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| Real GDP First-Quarter 2008 Preliminary Estimate
|
June, 2008 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Economic Trends |
| Abstract: The BEA’s preliminary estimate of first-quarter real GDP growth was revised up a bit from the advance release (to 0.9 percent at an annualized rate). The Blue Chip consensus economic forecast is predicting that the economy will grow a shade above zero next quarter, before snapping back in the third quarter and rising to near trend growth by the end of 2009.
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| Personal Income
|
May, 2008 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Nominal personal income increased 2.0 percent (annualized rate) in April, following a revised 4.6 percent increase in March. Disposable personal income rose 2.7 percent, its lowest growth rate in a year. Nominal personal consumption advanced 2.6 percent during the month. However, after adjusting for prices, real personal consumption was slightly negative, falling 0.2 percent in April. Over the past 12 months, real personal consumption has increased 1.6 percent.
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| PCE Price Index
|
May, 2008 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: The Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index increased 2.8 percent in April, following a 3.7 percent increase in March. The PCE was pushed up by an 11.4 percent jump in food prices, their largest increase since January of 1990. Fuel and other energy goods actually fell 17.4 percent in April after seasonal adjustment. Over the past 12 months, the PCE has increased 3.2 percent. The PCE excluding food and energy prices (core PCE) rose just 1.7 percent during the month and 2.1 percent over the past 12 months.
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| Consumer Sentiment
|
May, 2008 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment was revised up to 59.8, according to the final May report. The revision represents a slight increase over the preliminary estimate’s 59.5. Since January 2008 the index has fallen 18.6 points. The slight upward adjustment was due to a correction to the current conditions component (from 71.7 to 73.3), which was partially offset by a downward revision to expectations (from 51.7 to 51.1). Long-run (5-10 year) average inflation expectations were revised up from 3.8 percent to 4.0 percent in May, an increase of 0.5 percentage point over April. Expectations for one year ahead remained at 7.0 percent, up 1.3 percentage points from April.
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| First Quarter Preliminary Real GDP
|
May, 2008 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: First-quarter real (inflation-adjusted) GDP was revised up to 0.9 percent (annualized rate) from 0.6 percent, according to the preliminary estimate by the BEA. The revision was primarily due to upward adjustments to nondurable consumer spending, nonresidential fixed investment, and net exports. Nondurable consumer spending was revised up from −1.3 percent to −0.3 percent. Nonresidential investment in structures was adjusted up from −6.2 percent to 1.1 percent. While export growth was revised down from 5.5 percent to 2.8 percent in the first quarter, import growth fell further, from of 2.5 percent to −2.6 percent. All of these upward adjustments added 0.9 percentage point to real GDP growth. However, they were tempered by a downward revision to private inventories—from an accumulation of $20.1 billion to just $3.9 billion—which subtracted 0.6 percentage point from growth.
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| Durable Goods
|
May, 2008 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: New orders for durable goods fell 0.5 percent (nonannualized) in April, following a 0.3 percent decrease in March, and are now down 3.4 percent over the past 12 months. On the other hand, new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft jumped up 4.2 percent in April, pushing their 12-month growth rate to 2.4 percent. Shipments of durable goods rebounded during the last month, rising 1.2 percent after two consecutive monthly declines. Inventories expanded 0.5 percent in April and are up 5.0 percent over the past 12 months.
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| April Price Statistics
|
May, 2008 |
|
Brent Meyer; Michael F Bryan; |
Economic Trends |
| Abstract: The CPI rose at an annualized rate of 2.5 percent in April, following a 4.2 percent increase in March. Over the past six months, the CPI has risen 4.5 percent (annualized rate). In contrast to the rather well-behaved headline and core price indexes, the median and 16 percent trimmed-mean CPI measures rose 2.9 percent and 2.7 percent, respectively.
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| PPI
|
May, 2008 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: The Producer Price Index (PPI) increased 2.1 percent (annualized rate) in April, following a 13.9 percent spike in March. The PPI was tempered by a 2.0 percent decrease in energy prices, as the PPI for finished goods excluding food and energy rose 5.2 percent. It seems that the same seasonal factors that underestimated gasoline and fuel prices in the CPI are also affecting the PPI, as unadjusted energy prices jumped up 40.5 percent. The 12-month growth rate in the core PPI for finished goods rose 3.0 percent in April to its largest growth rate since December 1991. Further back on the production line, both intermediate and core goods production is showing price pressure. Core intermediate goods prices increased 16.1 percent during the month, while prices of core crude goods—a more volatile series—spiked 157.1 percent.
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| Consumer Sentiment
|
May, 2008 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: The University of Michigan?s Index of Consumer Sentiment fell to 59.5 in May, below 60.0 for the first time since June 1980. The current economic conditions component decreased 5.3 points to 71.7 and the expectations component fell from 53.3 to 51.7 . The details of the survey revealed that half of all families surveyed reported weaker finances due to increasing food and fuel prices, and 90 percent of the consumers surveyed thought the economy was in a recession. Average one–year–ahead inflation expectations jumped up to 7.0 percent in May from 5.7 percent in April. Also, the five–to–ten year–ahead inflation expectations ticked up 0.3 percentage point to 3.8 percent.
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| Industrial Production
|
May, 2008 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Industrial production fell 8.3 percent (annualized rate) in April, following a 2.2 percent gain in March, and is now up only 0.2 percent on a year-over-year basis. Manufacturing production decreased 9.4 percent, although half of the downturn was due to a 64.4 percent drop in motor vehicle and parts production that, according to the release, was held down by strikes and strike-related parts shortages. Industrial production excluding motor vehicles and parts decreased 4.1 percent in April. The output of other industry groups was mixed, as mining production fell 9.7 percent and utilities output increased 3.5 percent during the month. Capacity utilization declined 0.7 percentage point to 79.7 percent, its first dip under 80 percent since October 2005.
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| CPI
|
May, 2008 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose at an annualized rate of 2.5 percent in April, following a 4.2 percent increase in March. The CPI was pushed up by an 11.9 percent jump in food prices, which was tempered by curious decreases in energy prices and lodging away from home. Gasoline prices fell 21.4 percent (annualized rate) after seasonal adjustment, compared to the nonseasonally adjusted increase of 91.7 percent. The seasonal factors for gasoline were rather large in April, as the Easter holiday that usually falls in April actually occurred in March. Another component related to holiday travel-lodging away from home-exhibited a similar trend in its seasonal behavior as well, and fell 20.1 percent in April. The CPI excluding food and energy (core CPI) increased only 1.3 percent during the month. The median and 16 percent trimmed-mean CPI measures, which are less vulnerable to large, transitory price swings, rose 2.9 percent and 2.7 percent, respectively, in April. Over the past 12 months, the median CPI has increased 3.1 percent, while the 16 percent trimmed-mean CPI has risen 2.8 percent.
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| Retail Sales
|
May, 2008 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Total retail sales fell 2.2 percent (annualized rate) in April, erasing most of March’s 2.4 gain. The decrease was largely due to a 30.9 percent drop in auto sales, as retail sales excluding motor vehicles and parts rose 4.8 percent. Sales at gasoline stations fell 5.1 percent during the month, but are still up 16.4 percent over the past 12 months. Sales at electronics and appliance stores increased 18.6 percent in April, pushing their 12-month growth rate up to 4.0 percent from 2.4 percent last month.
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| Import and Export Prices
|
May, 2008 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Import prices continued to surge ahead in April, rising 23.9 percent (annualized rate), following an upwardly revised 40.9 percent jump in March. Over the past three months, import prices are up 21.3 percent. While it comes as no surprise that petroleum import prices are continuing to soar—up 66.9 percent in April and 187.9 percent in March—nonpetroleum imports rose 13.7 percent, a month after posting their largest increase on record (13.9 percent). Nonpetroleum import prices have shot up 6.2 percent over the past 12 months. Export prices increased 4.0 percent in April, following double-digit monthly gains over the past three months, and are up 7.7 percent over April of last year.
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| International Trade
|
May, 2008 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: The nominal trade deficit decreased $3.5 billion in March to a deficit of $58.2 billion. Export growth fell 1.7 percent in March, following a 1.8 percent increase in February. Despite the oil price increases in March, imports decreased 2.9 percent in March, pulling their 12-month growth rate down to 7.9 percent from 16.0 percent in February. The improvement to the trade balance in March, combined with a slight revision to February’s trade balance—from -$62.3 billion to -$61.7 billion—implies a small upward revision to first-quarter GDP.
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| Productivity and Costs (1Q preliminary)
|
May, 2008 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Nonfarm business sector productivity (output per hour of all persons) rose at an annualized rate of 2.2 percent in the first quarter, higher than expected, but due more to a decline in hours worked than an increase in output. Hours worked fell 1.8 percent (annualized rate), while output in the nonfarm business sector only increased 0.4 percent (annualized rate) during the quarter. Compensation per hour increased 4.4 percent in the first quarter. However, after adjusting for price effects, compensation per hour was virtually flat, rising only 0.1 percent at an annualized rate. On a year-over-year basis, real compensation has decreased 0.7 percent. Unit labor costs, a measure some use to detect the onset of inflationary pressures, increased 2.2 percent, down from last quarter’s 2.8 percent increase. Over the past 4 four quarters, unit labor costs are up only 0.2 percent.
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| Real GDP 2008:Q1 Advance Estimate
|
May, 2008 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Economic Trends |
| Abstract: Real GDP grew at an annualized rate of 0.6 percent in the first quarter of 2008, the same growth rate as last quarter, according to the advance release by the BEA. Over the past four quarters, real GDP has increased 2.5 percent, slightly below its long term (30-year) average of 3.0 percent. Growth in the first quarter was primarily due to increases in exports and private inventories, which were partly offset by a decrease in private investment and an increase in imports (which subtract from real GDP).
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| Employment Report
|
May, 2008 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Nonfarm payrolls fell by 20,000 in April, following a loss of 81,000 in March and a loss of 83,000 in February. Since the beginning of the year, nonfarm payrolls have trimmed 260,000 jobs. Employment in goods-producing industries, which has decreased in each of the past 13 months, fell by 110,000 workers in April. Manufacturing payrolls lost 46,000 jobs, 43,000 from durable goods industries. There were also broad-based losses in construction employment, which fell by 61,000. The service sector added 90,000 workers, mostly in health care and food services. In contrast, 26,800 jobs were lost in retail trade—with nearly half coming from building material and supply stores—bringing the year-to-date loss to 105,100 workers. Payrolls in the financial sector gained 3,000, which may come as somewhat of a surprise to those who were expecting fallout from the ongoing financial stress.
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| Factory Orders
|
May, 2008 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: New orders for manufactured goods increased 1.4 percent (nonannualized rate) in March, following a 0.9 percent decrease in February. The 12-month growth rate in new orders fell to 3.7 percent in March from 6.5 percent in February, but this had more to due with a rather sizeable (4.1 percent) jump in orders last March. New orders for durable goods excluding aircraft decreased for the third consecutive month, falling 1.0 percent in March. Shipments for all manufacturing industries rose 1.1 percent during the month and are up 4.7 percent over the lpast 12-months. Inventories continued to expand in March, rising 0.9 percent, pushing their 12-month growth rate to 6.5 percent, the highest since November 2006.
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| Personal Consumption Expenditures
|
May, 2008 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: The Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index, pushed up by a 26.8 percent jump in gasoline and energy goods, rose 3.7 percent (annualized rate) in March, following a revised increase of 1.7 percent in February. Over the past 12 months, the PCE index has risen 3.2 percent. The PCE price index excluding food and energy (core PCE) increased 2.0 percent during the month, and 2.1 percent over the past 12 months. Because apparel components for the PCE are taken directly from the CPI, the extreme downward swing in clothing prices—a decline of 17.2 percent—affected the Core PCE as well.
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| Personal Income
|
May, 2008 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Nominal personal income rose 4.0 percent (annualized rate) in March, following a revised 6.0 percent increase in February. Nominal disposable personal income rose 3.4 percent in during the month, after three consecutive increases above 5.0 percent.After accounting for inflation, however, real disposable personal income was virtually flat, falling 0.2 percent. Real (inflation-adjusted) personal consumption expenditures reversed course in March, rising 1.6 percent, after posting a decrease of 0.4 percent in February. Spending on durable goods continued to fall, however, dropping 5.4 percent in March, its fifth decrease in the past six months.
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| ISM Manufacturing
|
May, 2008 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: The ISM manufacturing index remained unchanged from last month at 48.6, its third straight month below 50, which—according to the ISM—would indicate that the manufacturing economy is contracting. The new orders, production, and supplier deliveries components were little changed during the month. However, the employment component fell 3.8 points to 45.2, and the inventories index jumped up 3.2 points to 48.1. The prices index continued to increase from a recent low of 59.0 in September 2007, rising 1.0 point in April to 84.5.
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| March Price Statistics
|
May, 2008 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Economic Trends |
| Abstract: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose at an annualized rate of 4.2 percent in March, returning to its recent elevated trend after a respite in February, when it increased only 0.3 percent (annualized rate). The CPI is up 4.6 percent over the past six months.
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| Employment Cost Index
|
April, 2008 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: The Employment Cost Index (ECI) for civilian workers rose 3.0 percent (annualized rate) in the first quarter of 2008, following a 3.4 percent increase last quarter, slightly less than its ten-year average of 3.6 percent. For the first time since 2004:Q3, quarterly growth in private compensation outpaced its government counterpart, rising 3.0 percent and 2.6 percent, respectively. On a year-over-year basis, the ECI remained at 3.3 percent. Wages and salaries rose 3.4 percent during the quarter, after three straight quarters of 3.1 percent increases. Benefits for civilian workers increased 2.3 percent in the first quarter, compared to 3.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2007.
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| Real GDP (1Q advance)
|
April, 2008 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Real GDP grew at an annualized rate of 0.6 percent in the first quarter of 2008, the same growth rate as last quarter, according to the advance release by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. While headline growth remained the same, growth among the components varied significantly. Real personal consumption increased 1.0 percent (annualized rate) in the first quarter, compared to 2.3 percent last quarter. Spending on consumer durables, which posted a small increase in 2007:Q4, fell 6.1 percent in the first quarter. Real fixed investment decreased 2.5 percent during the quarter, actually taking away 0.3 percentage point from real GDP growth, compared to an average contribution of 0.6 percentage point over the past four quarters. Residential investment continued to fall in the first quarter, dropping 26.6 percent, and is now down 21.2 percent from 2007:Q1. Inventory accumulation was the main contributor to growth this quarter, adding 0.8 percentage point to real GDP growth after a 1.5 percentage point take away last quarter. Exports continued to perform well, rising 5.5 percent in the first quarter, while imports showed a somewhat surprising gain of 2.5 percent, given the backdrop of the recent dollar depreciation and weak consumer sentiment.
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| Consumer Sentiment
|
April, 2008 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Consumer sentiment, according to April?s final report, was revised down 0.6 point from the preliminary report, slipping 6.9 points from March to an index value of 62.6. The consumer expectations component was revised down slightly, to 53.3, its lowest reading since December 1990. Short-term average inflation expectations jumped up over a full percentage point, from 4.6 in March to 5.7 in April. The movement in longer-term (5-year to 10-year) average inflation expectations was less dramatic, rising 0.3 percentage point to 3.5 percent.
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| Durable Goods
|
April, 2008 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: New orders for durable goods fell 0.3 percent (nonannualized) in March, marking the third consecutive decrease in the series. Over the past 12 months, new orders have decreased 2.1 percent. Orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft were virtually unchanged in March, following a 2.0 percent decrease in February. Shipments of durable goods decreased 0.4 percent in March and have fallen 0.8 percent over the last three months. The rate of inventory accumulation increased during the month, rising 1.1 percent and bringing the 12-month growth rate to 5.1 percent.
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| The Consumer Price Index
|
April, 2008 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose at an annualized rate of 4.2 percent in March, returning to its elevated trend after a brief respite in February, when it rose only 0.3 percent (annualized rate). The CPI is up 4.6 percent over the past six months. The CPI excluding food and energy (core CPI) increased only 1.8 percent during the month, contrasting the rather sizeable increase in the overall CPI. While energy prices spiked in March (up 25.9 percent), the core CPI was affected by a near 10-year record decrease in apparel prices—14.4 percent—in March. The median and 16 percent trimmed-mean CPI measures, which measure underlying inflation trends, rose 3.1 percent and 3.7 percent, respectively, in March. Over the past 12 months, the median CPI has increased 3.0 percent, while the 16 percent trimmed-mean CPI has risen 2.8 percent.
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| Industrial Production
|
April, 2008 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Industrial production increased 4.0 percent (annualized rate) in March, following an 8.5 percent decrease in February. Much of the increase was due to a 25.7 percent jump in utilities output and an 11.0 percent increase in the mining sector. Manufacturing production was virtually unchanged from February, rising only 0.6 percent during the month. Over the past 3 months, manufacturing production has fallen 1.6 percent. Total industry capacity utilization inched up slightly in March, rising from 80.3 to 80.5 percent of capacity.
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| Producer Price Index
|
April, 2008 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: The Producer Price Index (PPI) jumped 13.9 percent (annualized rate) in March, following a 4.2 percent increase in February. The index's 12-month growth rate is now at 6.9 percent, its sixth consecutive month above 6 percent. Producer prices for finished goods excluding food and energy (core PPI) rose 3.0 percent during the month and have risen 5.0 percent over the past three months. Further back on the production line, both core intermediate goods prices and crude goods prices were elevated, advancing 14.0 percent and 50.6 percent, respectively.
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| Retail Sales
|
April, 2008 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Total retail sales increased 1.9 percent (annualized rate) in March, following a revised 4.2 percent decrease in February. The 12-month growth rate in total sales has fallen to 2.0 percent, the lowest since November 2002. Retail sales excluding motor vehicles and parts increased 1.7 percent during the month. Losses at furniture and home furnishing stores were not a severe as they have been over the past three months, falling 4.0 percent in March compared to an average decline of 15.6 percent over the prior three months. Sales at building materials, garden equipment, and supply dealers fell 17.7 percent in March, bringing the 12-month growth rate to a record low of -6.9 percent. Sales at food services and drinking places increased 3.6 percent in March, following declines of 2.4 percent in February and 3.0 percent in January.
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| Import and Export Prices
|
April, 2008 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Import prices surged ahead in March, rising 39.0 percent (annualized rate), following a 1.9 percent increase in February. Over the past three months, import prices are up 19.2 percent. In addition to a substantial spike in petroleum imports (up 183 percent at an annualized rate), nonpetroleum imports posted their largest increase on record, rising 13.9 percent during the month. Nonpetroleum import prices have shot up 5.4 percent over the last 12 months. Export prices, bolstered by weakness in the dollar, continued their recent upswing, rising 19.2 percent in March after increases of 13.7 percent in February and 15.0 percent in January. Since the beginning of the year, export prices have risen 16.0 percent.
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| Consumer Sentiment
|
April, 2008 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: The University of Michigan?s Index of Consumer Sentiment slipped another 6.3 points in April, falling to 63.2, a level consistent with past recessionary episodes. The consumer expectations component fell to 53.4, its lowest reading since December 1990. Short-term average inflation expectations jumped up a full percentage point from 4.6 in March to 5.6 in April. The movement in longer-term (5-year to 10-year) average inflation expectations was less dramatic, rising 0.2 percentage point to 3.4 percent.
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| The Employment Report
|
April, 2008 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Nonfarm payroll employment continued to deteriorate, falling 80,000 in March, after a downwardly revised 76,000 job loss in February. Over the past three months, nonfarm payrolls have decreased by 232,000. Employment losses in goods-producing industries accelerated during the month, falling by 93,000 jobs after decreases of 82,000 and 69,000 in February and January, respectively. Construction employment fell by 51,000 jobs in March, while the manufacturing industry cut 48,000 workers from its payrolls. The service sector—bolstered by job gains in health care (+22,800), food services (+23,400), and local government (+13,000)—showed a net gain of 13,000 workers. While there were some minor losses elsewhere in the service sector, employment services were hit the hardest, trimming 41,800 workers in March.
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| Factory Orders
|
April, 2008 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: New orders for manufactured goods surprised expectations of a 0.8 percent decrease, by falling 1.7 percent (nonannualized rate) in February, following a 2.3 percent drop in January. New orders for nondefense capital goods (excluding aircraft) decreased 2.4 percent during the month. Shipments of manufactured goods fell 1.0 percent in February, but are 1.3 percent over the last 6 months. Inventories continued to accumulate in February, rising 0.5 percent, and are up 5.5 percent over the 12 months.
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| ISM Manufacturing
|
April, 2008 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: The ISM manufacturing index remained in contractionary territory for the second straight month, although the diffusion index rose 0.3 point to 48.6 in March. While the employment and supplier deliveries components improved during the month, the new orders and production components decreased. The new orders component fell 2.6 points to 46.5 in March, its lowest reading since 2001. The production index slipped into contractionary territory, decreasing 2.0 points to 48.7. The prices paid index jumped 8.0 points to 83.5, as manufacturers continue to face significant price pressure.
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| Real GDP: Fourth-Quarter 2007 Final Estimate
|
March, 2008 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Economic Trends |
| Abstract: Real GDP, according to the final estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), was unchanged from both the preliminary and advance estimates, rising at an annualized rate of 0.6 percent in the fourth quarter. While the overall growth rate in GDP remained identical to the advance estimate, the performance of its underlying components changed.
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| February Price Statistics
|
March, 2008 |
|
Brent Meyer; Michael F Bryan; |
Economic Trends |
| Abstract: The (CPI) was virtually unchanged from January, rising only 0.3 percent at an annualized rate in February. This moderation from increases of 4.8 percent in January and 4.4 percent in December resulted from a modest increase in food prices, which was offset by a decrease in energy prices, and a slowdown in price appreciation among all items less food and energy.
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| PPI
|
March, 2008 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: The Producer Price Index (PPI) increased 4.2 percent (annualized rate) in February, following a 12.6 percent jump in January. The index's 12-month growth rate is now at 6.8 percent, the fifth consecutive month it has been above 6 percent. Maybe even more disconcerting is the fact that producer prices for finished goods excluding food and energy (core PPI) rose 6.8 percent during the month and have been rising fairly consistently from a low of 0.7 percent in September 2007. Over the past 12 months, core PPI prices have risen 2.5 percent. Further back on the production line, both core intermediate goods prices and crude goods prices were elevated as well, advancing 7.9 percent and 47.0 percent, respectively.
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| Industrial Production
|
March, 2008 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Industrial production fell 6.3 percent (annualized rate) in February, following a 1.1 percent increase in January. Much of the decrease was due to a 36.7 percent decrease in utilities output; however, manufacturing output declined as well, falling 3.0 percent during the month. Over the past 12 months, production has increased 1.0 percent, its lowest 12-month growth rate since November 2003. Total industry capacity utilization fell from 81.5 percent in January, to 80.9 percent in February.
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| CPI
|
March, 2008 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) was virtually unchanged from January, rising only 0.3 percent at an annualized rate in February. This moderation?from increases of 4.8 percent in January and 4.4 percent in December?reflected a modest increase in food prices that was offset by a decrease in energy prices, and a slowdown in price appreciation among all items less food and energy. The CPI excluding food and energy (core CPI) was unchanged during the month and has increased 2.3 percent over the past 12 months. The median and 16 percent trimmed-mean CPI measures rose 1.4 percent and 1.0 percent, respectively in February. This is in stark contrast to last month, when both measures of underlying inflation rose in excess of 4 percent. Over the past 12 months, the median CPI has increased 3.0 percent, while the 16 percent trimmed-mean CPI has risen 2.8 percent.
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| Import and Export Prices
|
March, 2008 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Import prices increased 1.9 percent (annualized rate) in February, after surging 21.7 percent in January. Imported petroleum prices fell 16.8 percent, helping to offset a 7.9 percent increase in nonpetroleum imports. On a year-over-year basis, nonpetroleum imports are up 4.6 percent, their largest growth rate since 1995. Export prices remained elevated, rising 11.5 percent during the month, following a 15.0 percent jump in January. Over the last 12 months, export prices have risen 6.9 percent.
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| Retail Sales
|
March, 2008 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Total retail sales fell 6.5 percent (annualized rate) in February, surprising forecasts of slight growth. Retail sales, excluding motor vehicles and parts decreased 2.6 percent during the month. Nine out of thirteen major components of retail sales had negative sales growth in February. The bright spots were health and personal care stores (+6.1 percent), clothing stores (+2.0 percent), sporting goods and hobby stores (+4.7 percent), and general merchandise stores (+4.8 percent). Sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers fell 20.9 percent, and are now 4.2 percent below sales from a year ago.
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| January Price Statistics
|
March, 2008 |
|
Brent Meyer; Michael F Bryan; |
Economic Trends |
top |
| Employment Report
|
March, 2008 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Nonfarm payrolls fell by 63,000 in February, their largest drop in five years, following a downwardly revised 22,000 job loss in January. Employment in goods-producing industries, which has been falling steadily since March 2007, decreased by 89,000 jobs, with 52,000 coming from manufacturing employment. Over the past 12 months, manufacturing payrolls have lost 299,000. The service sector faired better in February, increasing by 26,000 jobs. Education and health services gained 30,000 workers, while government payrolls added 38,000. Not everything was rosy on the service side, as retail trade fell by 34,000 jobs, financial activities pared back 12,000 workers, and professional and business services lost 20,000 (with a 28,000 drop in temporary help services).
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| Real GDP 2007: Fourth-Quarter Preliminary Estimate
|
March, 2008 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Economic Trends |
top |
| Factory Orders
|
March, 2008 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: New orders for manufactured goods fell 2.5 percent (nonannualized rate) in January, more than reversing December’s 2.0 percent gain. New orders for durable goods excluding aircraft decreased 1.5 percent during the month, following a 5.2 percent upward spike in December, but are still up 5.2 percent over the last 12 months. Shipments of manufactured goods rebounded from December’s 0.4 percent decrease, rising 1.1 percent in January. Inventories continued to accumulate in January, rising 1.3 percent, their largest increase in three years.
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| Productivity and Costs
|
March, 2008 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Nonfarm business sector productivity (output per hour of all persons) was revised up 0.1 percentage point to 1.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2007. The slight upward revision was due to a downward adjustment to hours, which was partially taken back by a small downward revision to output. Unit labor costs, a measure some use to track the onset of inflationary pressures, were also revised up, rising to 2.6 percent from −2.7 percent in the third quarter. This release also incorporates an annual benchmark revision from the BLS, which left productivity higher than was previously reported, up from 1.6 percent to 1.8 percent for 2007. Also, while real hourly compensation increased from a 1.8 percent gain during the year, to a 2.3 percent increase as a result of the benchmark, the increase in unit labor costs remained at 3.1 percent for 2007.
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| ISM Manufacturing
|
March, 2008 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: The ISM manufacturing index fell 2.4 points to 48.3, dipping into contractionary territory for the second time in three months. The production component decreased 4.5 points to 50.7. The employment index continued its decline, falling to 46.0 during the month, down from a recent high of 51.8 in October. The new orders index fared the best out of all the major components of the ISM manufacturing index, diminishing only by 0.4 point to 49.1 in February.
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| Construction Spending
|
March, 2008 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Total private construction spending fell 2.2 percent in January, its largest decline in 14 years. The decline was led lead by a 3.0 percent drop in private residential construction, which is the second largest drop in the series since it began declining in March 2006. For the first time in 16 months, the nonresidential side contributed to decline in private construction, as it fell 1.2 percent in January. Over the past 23 months, nearly 40 percent of the decline in private residential construction has been offset by gains on the nonresidential side.
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| Personal Income
|
February, 2008 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Nominal personal income rose 3.3 percent (annualized rate) in January, following a revised 5.6 percent increase in December. Wages and salaries increased 6.2 percent during the month, after two consecutive 5.1 percent increases. Disposable personal income increased 5.5 percent in December, in line with 2007’s average of 5.7 percent. Real (inflation-adjusted) personal consumption expenditures continued to grow slowly, rising only 0.4 percent in January, after posting a 0.1 percent gain in December. Spending on durable goods continued to fall, dropping 15.0 percent during the month, its fourth consecutive decrease.
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| PCE Price Index
|
February, 2008 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: The Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index rose 4.5 percent (annualized rate) in January, following revised increases of 3.8 percent in December and 8.0 percent in November. The PCE index excluding food and energy (core PCE) accelerated during the month, rising 3.7 percent and outpacing last quarter’s 2.7 percent increase. The 12-month growth rate in the core PCE price index remained at 2.2 percent.
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| Consumer Sentiment
|
February, 2008 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment slipped 7.6 points in February, falling from 74.8 in January to 70.8. The consumer expectations component fell to 62.4, its lowest reading since February 1992. The current economic conditions component dropped 10.6 points to a value of 83.8. Short-term average inflation expectations ticked down in February, decreasing 0.1 percentage point to 3.9 percent. Longer-term (5-year to 10-year) average inflation expectations remained unchanged at 3.4 percent.
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| Real GDP
|
February, 2008 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Real GDP grew at an annualized rate of 0.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2007, according to the preliminary estimate released by the BEA, and remained unchanged from the advanced estimate. Downward revisions to private investment and personal consumption were balanced by a positive improvementin net exports, leaving overall real GDP growth at 0.6 percent in the fourth quarter. Exports were adjusted up 0.9 percentage point, from 3.9 percent to 4.8 percent, while imports (which subtract from GDP growth) were revised down from 0.3 percent to −2.2 percent. Personal consumption of durable goods was adjusted down from 4.2 percent growth in the advanced estimate to 2.3 percent in the preliminary estimate.
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| Durable Goods
|
February, 2008 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: New orders for durable goods fell 5.3 percent (nonannualized) in January, more than reversing December’s 4.4 percent increase. Orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft decreased 1.4 percent during the month, following a 5.2 percent gain last month. Despite this month’s negative number, the 12-month growth rate in nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft is up 5.5 percent. Shipments of durable goods increased 1.8 percent in January and are up 2.8 percent over the past 12 months. Inventories continued to expand (albeit at a lower growth rate), rising 0.6 percent, after a 1.1 percent increase in December.
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| PPI
|
February, 2008 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: The Producer Price Index (PPI) jumped up 12.6 percent (annualized rate) in January, following a 4.1 percent decrease in December and a 35.5 percent increase in November. Both energy and food prices contributed to the overall increase, but finished goods excluding food and energy (core) prices were elevated as well, rising 5.3 percent during the month. On a year-over-year basis, core PPI is up 2.4 percent. Further back on the production line, both core intermediate and core crude goods prices spiked in January, increasing 10.3 percent and 60.7 percent, respectively.
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| CPI
|
February, 2008 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose at an annualized rate of 4.8 percent in January, following a 4.4 percent increase in December. The CPI excluding food and energy (core CPI) increased 3.8 percent during the month. The increase was the largest since March 2004, and it pushed the 12-month growth rate to 2.5 percent. There were strong price gains in many CPI components, as more than half of the index’s components increased at rates in excess of 4 percent. The median and 16 percent trimmed-mean CPI measures were elevated as well, rising 4.2 percent and 4.3 percent, respectively. Over the last 12 months, the median CPI has increased 3.2 percent, while the 16 percent trimmed-mean has advanced 3.0 percent.
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| Consumer Sentiment
|
February, 2008 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Consumer sentiment plummeted in February, according to the preliminary estimate, falling from 78.4 in January to 69.6. A slight decline, to 76.0, had been expected. Index levels this low have only been seen outside of recessions twice: in the early 1990s and in between recessions in the early 1980s. The current economic conditions component fell 9 points to 85.4 in February, and the consumer expectations component fell 8.7 points to 59.4. Consumer expectations have fallen 28.2 points from their peak in January 2007. Average inflation expectations for the year ahead remained unchanged at 4.0 percent during the month, and ticked up slightly from 3.4 percent to 3.5 percent over the longer term (5 to 10 years ahead).
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| Industrial Production
|
February, 2008 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Industrial production rose 1.1 percent (annualized rate) in January, following an upwardly revised 1.5 percent increase (from -0.5 percent) in December. Over the past 12 months, production has increased 2.3 percent. Output from the manufacturing sector was virtually unchanged, rising just 0.4 percent during the month, with durable goods activity remaining flat. A 20.0 percent drop in output from the mining sector was more than offset by a 30.0 percent increase in electric and utilities production. Total industry capacity utilization remained unchanged at 81.5 percent in January, 0.7 percentage point above its 1990-2007 average.
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| December Price Statistics
|
February, 2008 |
|
Brent Meyer; Michael F Bryan; |
Economic Trends |
top |
| Retail Sales
|
February, 2008 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Total retail sales surprised forecasts of negative growth, rising 4.0 percent (annualized rate) in January, erasing much of December’s 5.2 percent drop. Sales, excluding motor vehicles and parts, increased 3.2 percent during the month. Nondurable sales (i.e., food, energy, and clothing) fared well in January, but sales at furniture and electronics stores fell 8.6 percent, and building materials, garden equipment, and supply dealers sales fell further, posting an 18.6 percent decrease. Recreation sales shared the same fate as durable goods, with sporting goods, hobby, and book and music store sales falling 14.8 percent in January.
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| Productivity and Costs
|
February, 2008 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Nonfarm business sector productivity (output per hour of all persons) rose 1.8 percent (annualized rate) in the fourth quarter, after surging ahead 6.0 percent in the third quarter. On a year-over-year basis, productivity remained unchanged from the third quarter at 2.6 percent. Compensation per hour increased 3.9 percent, but after accounting for consumer prices, it fell 0.3 percent during the quarter. Unit labor costs, a measure some use to track the onset of inflationary pressures, increased 2.1 percent, after falling for the past two quarters. However, unit labor costs only rose 1.0 percent on year-over-year basis, compared to 3.0 percent in the third quarter.
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| Real GDP Fourth-Quarter 2007 Advance Estimate
|
February, 2008 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Economic Trends |
top |
| Real GDP Fourth-Quarter 2007 Advance Estimate
|
February, 2008 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Economic Trends |
top |
| Factory Orders
|
February, 2008 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: New orders for manufactured goods rose 2.3 percent (nonannualized rate) in November, following a 1.7 percent increase in November. New orders for durable goods excluding aircraft jumped up 4.5 percent during the month, following declines of 0.1 percent in November and 3.0 percent in October. Shipments of manufactured goods fell 0.3 percent in December, following 1.3 percent increase in November. Inventories continued to accumulate in December, rising 0.8 percent, their largest increase in seventeen months.
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| Consumer Sentiment
|
February, 2008 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment rebounded in January, rising to 78.4, after readings of 75.5 in December and 76.1 in November. Gains were seen in both the current conditions and consumer expectations components. Short-term inflation expectations ticked down in January, falling 0.4 percentage point to 4.0 percent. Longer-term (5-year to 10-year) inflation expectations declined slightly to 3.4 percent.
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| ISM Manufacturing
|
February, 2008 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: The ISM manufacturing index is indicating slight expansion, as it rose to 50.7 in January, a month after its first dip into contractionary territory in 11 months. The production component provided most of the bounce, jumping up from 48.6 in December to 55.2 in January. Both the new orders and inventories indexes increased slightly but remained in contractionary territory, posting values of 49.5 and 49.1, respectively. The employment index fell 1.6 points to 47.1, its lowest level since September 2003.
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| Employment Report
|
February, 2008 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Nonfarm payroll employment fell by 17,000 in January, well below expectations but accompanied by an upward revision of December’s number to an 82,000 job gain. The report was released with a benchmark revision that resulted in a downward adjustment of 191,000 to payrolls in 2007. Both construction and manufacturing employment continued to lose jobs in January, falling 27,000 and 28,000, respectively. Construction employment has fallen 284,000 since the peak of the housing boom in September 2006, and manufacturing employment has lost 269,000 over the past 12 months. In contrast, professional and business service payrolls have gained 290,000 over the past year. Government payrolls fell by 18,000 during the month, mostly because of reductions in state education workers, but added 185 workers over the past 12 months.
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| Existing Home Sales for December
|
January, 2008 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Existing home sales fell at a 9 percent annual rate in December, but remained flat with September's levels. Over the entire year, total sales are down about 8 percent, while single-family sales are down a bit over 7 percent. Median single–family home prices ticked up in December, but have been flat over the past year.
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| November Price Statistics
|
January, 2008 |
|
Brent Meyer; Michael F Bryan; |
Economic Trends |
top |
| Durable Goods
|
December, 2007 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: New orders for durable goods increased 0.1 percent (nonannualized) in November. The increase follows three consecutive monthly decreases including a 0.4 percent drop in October, leaving year-to-date growth at 0.6 percent. Orders for nondefense capital goods, excluding aircraft, decreased 0.4 percent during the month, following a 2.9 percent drop in October. Shipments of durable goods remained unchanged during the month after a 0.5 percent increase last month. The speed of inventory accumulation has been rising over the last three months, as inventories rose 0.8 percent in November, following increases 0.4 percent and 0.3 percent in October and September, respectively.
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| Consumer Sentiment
|
December, 2007 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment slid another 0.6 points to 75.5 in December, and is now down 21.4 points from the beginning of the year (January’s index value was 96.9). The consumer expectations component fell to 65.6, its lowest reading in two years. The current economic conditions component dropped 0.5 points to a value of 91, after falling 6.1 points in November. Short-term inflation expectations ticked up in December, rising 0.1 percentage points to 4.4 percent. Longer-term (5-year to 10-year) inflation expectations rose to 3.5 percent, up 0.4 percentage points from October’s low of 3.1 percent.
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| PCE Price Index
|
December, 2007 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: The Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index rose 7.1 percent (annualized rate) in November, after an upwardly revised 3.9 percent increase in October. While energy prices had much to do with the spike in the headline number, rising 192 percent during the month, the PCE index excluding food and energy (core PCE) was elevated as well, rising 2.8 percent. Core prices for October and September were revised upward, rising 2.7 and 3.2 percent, respectively. For the first time since May, the 12-month growth rate in core PCE edged above 2.0 percent, as it rose to 2.2 percent in November.
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| Personal Income
|
December, 2007 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Nominal personal income rose 4.5 percent (annualized rate) in November, following a revised 2.6 percent increase in October. Wages and salaries rebounded during the month, rising 7.8 percent after posting a 0.5 percent increase in October. Disposable personal income increased 3.9 percent in November and, on a year-over-year basis, increased 5.8 percent, which is in line with the average growth seen since the beginning of 2006. Real (inflation-adjusted) personal consumption expenditures increased 6.8 percent in November, as broad-based strength was seen in both goods (nondurable and durable) and services consumption.
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| Third-Quarter 2007 Final GDP
|
December, 2007 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Economic Trends |
top |
| Real GDP (3Q-final)
|
December, 2007 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Real GDP increased at an annualized rate of 4.9 percent in the third quarter, according to the final estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, unchanged from the preliminary estimate. Although headline growth remained the same, there was a small upward revision to personal consumption expenditures that was offset by a downward adjustment to private inventories. Third quarter corporate profits (released with GDP), decreased $20.5 billion, after rising $94.7 billion in the second quarter.
|
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| Current Account (3Q)
|
December, 2007 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: The current account deficit fell $10.5 billion in the third quarter to 5.1 percent of GDP, down from 5.5 percent of GDP in the second quarter. The drop in the deficit was the third decline in the past four quarters and brings the current account deficit to its lowest level relative to GDP since 2004.
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| Industrial Production
|
December, 2007 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Industrial production increased 3.4 percent (annualized rate) in November, following an 8.2 percent drop in October (its largest decrease in two years). Manufacturing production followed up a weak October with a 4.7 percent gain in November, pushing its 12-month growth rate to 2.2 percent, after three months below 2.0 percent. Production in the mining sector was relatively strong, advancing 14.2 percent during the month, its second strongest month this year. Utilities output fell for the third straight month, decreasing 14.9 percent in November.
|
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| CPI
|
December, 2007 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) advanced at a 10.0 percent annualized rate in November, driven largely by a 95.5 percent energy shock that pushed the index to its highest growth rate since September 2005. Consumer prices excluding food and energy (core CPI) rose 3.3 percent during the month. The last time the core CPI was above 3.0 percent was in January. The price increases are largely broad based: while the overall CPI grew 2.2 percent over the past three months, every major component of the index rose more than 3.0 percent over the period except education and communication. This recent acceleration is reflected in the median CPI and the 16 percent trimmed-mean CPI, which rose over the past three months 3.3 percent and 3.4 percent, respectively, and in November each increased 3.7 percent.
|
top |
| Retail Sales
|
December, 2007 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Total retail sales rose 15.7 percent (annualized rate) in November, after a 2.7 percent increase in October and a 10.2 percent advance in September. Sales excluding motor vehicles and parts jumped up 24.1 percent during the month, its largest increase in 22 months. While it was a bad month for autos, falling 12 percent, sales at furniture and home furnishing stores posted a strong 22.7 percent gain. Sales strength was also seen in building materials and supply stores, food and beverage stores, and general merchandise stores.
|
top |
| PPI
|
December, 2007 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: The Producer Price Index (PPI) spiked up 45.4 percent (annualized rate) in November, its largest monthly increase in 34 years. Energy prices were the culprit, jumping 388 percent during the month, the biggest energy shock the series has ever recorded. Prices excluding food and energy (core PPI) were somewhat elevated, rising 4.5 percent. However, on a year-over-year basis, the growth in core PPI fell 0.6 percentage point to 1.9 percent. Further back on the production line, price signals were mixed, as core intermediate goods increased 12.8 percent and core crude goods fell 5.9 percent in November.
|
top |
| Import and Export Price Indexes
|
December, 2007 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Import prices advanced 37.2 percent (annualized rate) in November, their largest increase since October 1990. The increase was due, in part, to a large spike in petroleum prices (up 208.5 percent). On a year-over-year basis, import prices are up 11.4 percent. Nonpetroleum imports rose 9.3 percent during the month. Export prices advanced as well in November, rising 10.7 percent, following a 9.7 percent increase in October. Prices of exported industrial supplies and materials increased 30.8 percent, accounting for most of the jump in overall export prices.
|
top |
| Employment Report
|
December, 2007 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 94,000 in November, slightly above expectations, and following a strong growth of 170,000 (revised up from 166,000) October. Service-providing industries added 127,000 jobs during the month on strong broad-based gains in most categories, outside of a 20,000 job loss in financial activities. Goods-producing industries lost 33,000 jobs, mostly on losses in specialty trade contractors (-11,000) and nondurable goods manufacturing (-10,000). Job gains in the service sector were divided among retail trade (24,200), Professional and business services (30,000), Education and health care services (28,000), Leisure and hospitality (26,000), and the government (30,000). The 20,000 job loss in financial activities was roughly split between credit intermediation and related activities and real estate services.
|
top |
| Third-Quarter Preliminary GDP Release
|
December, 2007 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Economic Trends |
top |
| Factory Orders
|
December, 2007 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: New orders for manufactured goods rose 0.5 percent (nonannualized rate) in October, following a slight (0.3 percent) increase in September. New orders for durable goods excluding aircraft fell 2.0 percent during the month and are down 1.9 percent on a year-over-year basis. Shipments of manufactured goods jumped 1.0 percent after a flat reading in September. Shipments of durable goods advanced 0.8 percent, changing course after two consecutive monthly decreases. Inventories remained steady in October and are 2.2 percent above October 2006.
|
top |
| Productivity and Costs
|
December, 2007 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Nonfarm business sector productivity (output per hour of all persons) was revised up to 6.3 percent (annualized rate) from the preliminary estimate of 4.9 percent. This surge in productivity—this was the highest quarterly growth rate in productivity since the third quarter of 2003—is partly due to a strong upward revision to third-quarter GDP. Compensation per hour was adjusted down to 4.2 percent growth from 4.7 percent, and it fell to 2.7 percent after accounting for consumer prices. Unit labor costs, a measure some use to track the onset of inflationary pressures, fell 2.0 percent after the revision. However, labor costs are up 3.0 percent from a year ago.
|
top |
| ISM Manufacturing
|
December, 2007 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing index was virtually unchanged in November, holding at 50.8, which indicates very slight growth (in this diffusion index, a value above 50 indicates expansion). While the new orders and production indexes stayed in positive territory this month, posting values of 52.6 and 51.9, respectively, the employment index fell into contractionary territory by dropping 4.2 points to end the month at 47.8. This is its lowest reading since September 2003, but it would need to fall another 10 to 12 points to approach the index values seen during the last recession.
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| Construction Spending
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November, 2007 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Total private construction spending fell 1.4 percent in October after being relatively steady over the previous two months. Private residential construction fell for the twentieth consecutive month, posting a 2.0 percent decline, while private nonresidential construction fell a modest 0.5 percent. The decline on the nonresidential side was the first drop in construction activity in just over a year.
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| PCE Price Index
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November, 2007 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: The Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index rose 3.4 percent (annualized rate) in September, after a 3.3 percent increase in September. The PCE index excluding food and energy (core PCE) rose 2.1 percent during the month, down from an upwardly revised and elevated core reading last month of 3.0 percent (September’s core PCE was originally 2.3 percent). The 12-month growth rate in the core PCE price index ticked up from a 42-month low of 1.8 percent, rising to 1.9 percent in October.
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| Personal Income
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November, 2007 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Nominal personal income rose 3.0 percent (annualized rate) in October, following a downwardly revised 4.1 percent increase in September. Wages and salaries increased 1.0 percent in October, following a nearly 8.0 percent spike last month. Disposable personal income (personal income less personal current taxes) grew decidedly less than last month's 5.2 percent gain, rising only 1.6 percent in October. On a nominal basis, consumer spending increased 3.0 percent during the month. However, after adjusting for inflation, real personal consumption expenditures fell 0.4 percent, and on a year-over-year basis, increased only 2.4 percent, their smallest increase since May 2005.
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| New Homes Sales
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November, 2007 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: New single-family-home sales increased 1.7 percent in October, following five consecutive monthly declines. Despite the small increase, sales are still down nearly 50 percent from their peak in July 2005. The inventory of homes as measured relative to the current sales pace fell for the second consecutive month. However, at 8.5 months it still remains about double the average seen in 2004 and 2005. The median sales price of new single-family homes is down 13.0 percent from October 2006, the largest year-over-year drop since 1970.
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| Real GDP
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November, 2007 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Real GDP was revised up from 3.9 percent (annualized rate) to 4.9 percent, according to the preliminary estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The one percentage point adjustment was primarily due to upward revisions to private inventories and exports, and a downward revision to imports. Private inventories added $27.1 billion in the third quarter, after a $17.2 billion revision. Exports were revised up 2.7 percentage points to 18.9 percent, while imports dropped a percentage point to settle at increase of 4.2 percent in the third quarter. Personal consumption expenditures were revised down from an increase of 3 percent to 2.7 percent, partially offsetting the upward revisions. If the preliminary estimate holds, it will be the largest annualized increase in GDP since the third quarter of 2003.
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| October Price Statistics
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November, 2007 |
|
Brent Meyer; Michael F Bryan; |
Economic Trends |
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| Durable Goods
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November, 2007 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: New orders for durable goods fell 0.4 percent (nonannualized) in October, following a 1.4 percent drop in September, but are still up 4.6 percent year-to-date. Orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft decreased 2.3 percent during the month, following an upwardly revised 1.2 percent increase (from 0.4 percent) in September. Shipments of durable goods crossed into the black after two months of decreases, rising 0.6 percent. Inventories posted a slight monthly increase and are 2.1 percent above last October. Unfilled orders have started to back down from the record year-over-year gains of the past two months, from 21.7 percent in August to 17.9 percent in October.
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| Consumer Sentiment
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November, 2007 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment slid 4.8 points to 76.1 in November, its lowest level in two years, following a 80.9 reading in October. The consumer expectations component dropped 3.9 points to 66.2. The current economic conditions component worsened considerably, falling 6.1 points to 91.5, and is now down 19.8 points from January’s recent high of 111.3 points. Short-term inflation expectations rose from 3.7 percent in October to 4.3 percent in November, returning to rates seen in May after consistently decreasing over the last five months. Longer-term (5 year to 10 year) inflation expectations ticked up from 3.1 percent in October to 3.4 percent in November.
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| Housing Starts
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November, 2007 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Total housing starts increased 3.0 percent in October, but the numbers were distorted by a 44.4 percent increase in multi-family starts. Single-family starts, which are typically less volatile, fell 7.3 percent over the course of the month. Single-family starts are now at their lowest level since 1991 and have fallen a total of 51.9 percent from their peak in January 2006. The total number of permits authorized, which includes multi-family homes, fell 6.6 percent in October, while permits for single-family homes fell 8.0 percent.
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| CPI
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November, 2007 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.6 percent (annualized rate) in October, its second straight increase after a drop of 1.7 percent in August. The 12-month growth rate now stands at 3.5 percent, up from 2.8 percent. Growth in the CPI excluding food and energy prices (core CPI) slowed to 1.8 percent after climbing to 2.7 percent in September. However, strong price gains in general services were picked up in the median and 16 percent trimmed-mean CPI inflation indicators, as they posted increases of 3.2 percent and 3.4 percent, respectively.
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| Industrial Production
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November, 2007 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Industrial production fell 5.9 percent (annualized rate) in October, its largest drop since September 2005. October’s drop followed a 2.1 percent gain in September. However, industrial production is still up 1.8 percent over October of last year. Production fell across all industry groups after strong third-quarter growth; mining, manufacturing, and utilities production fell 4.3 percent, 6.9 percent, and 17.5 percent, respectively during the month.
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| Retail Sales
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November, 2007 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Total retail sales increased 2.0 percent (annualized rate) in October, after a revised 8.1 percent increase in September and a 0.9 percent revised increase in August. Sales at auto dealers were virtually unchanged from the previous month and as a result, the rise in retail sales excluding autos was identical to the headline increase. Sales at furniture and home furnishing stores continued to fall, dropping 10.5 percent during the month. This month’s drop follows a 14.9 percent drop in September and a 7.6 percent drop in August.
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| PPI
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November, 2007 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: The Producer Price Index (PPI) edged up 0.7 percent (annualized rate) in October, following a 14.7 percent jump in September. Prices excluding food and energy (core PPI) for finished goods only were unchanged from a month ago. However, when compared with October 2006, core prices rose 2.5 percent. Further back on the production line, prices showed some signs of acceleration, as core intermediate and core crude goods increased 1.4 percent and 18.7 percent, respectively.
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| International Trade
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November, 2007 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: The nominal trade deficit decreased slightly in September, falling $0.4 billion from a downwardly revised August deficit of $56.8 billion. In total for the third quarter of 2007, the trade deficit decreased $5.4 billion to $172.3 billion, its lowest value since the second quarter of 2005. Exports grew 1.1% over the course of the month, in line with the average growth rate seen over the past two years. Import growth was also in line with its two-year average growth rate in September, growing 0.6% over the course of the month. Imports of petroleum products increased 0.2%, as prices rose slightly but the total quantity of petroleum imports fell. Nonpetroleum imports rose 0.6% in September. (Price and quantity data are not seasonally adjusted.
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| Import and Export Price Indexes
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November, 2007 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Import prices advanced 23.9 percent (annualized rate) in October, their largest increase since May 2006, and on a year-over-year basis jumped 9.6 percent in October, compared to September’s 5.0 percent increase. Oil is largely the cause for the spike, but nonoil import prices rose 5.8 percent. Export prices posted their largest annualized monthly increase since April 1995, rising 10.8 percent during the month. Increases were broad-based, as prices of both agricultural and nonagricultural exports led to the overall jump.
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| Productivity and Costs (3Q-Prel)
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November, 2007 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Nonfarm business sector productivity (output per hour of all persons) surged ahead, rising 4.9 percent (annualized rate) in the third quarter, its largest jump since 2003:IIIQ. Compensation per hour increased 4.7 percent, but after accounting for consumer prices, it rose 2.7 percent, up from last quarter’s decrease of 1.5 percent. Unit labor costs, a measure some use to track the onset of inflationary pressures, were virtually unchanged from the second quarter, falling 0.2 percent; however labor costs are up 4.3 percent from a year ago.
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| September Price Statistics
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November, 2007 |
|
Brent Meyer; Michael F Bryan; |
Economic Trends |
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| Employment Report
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November, 2007 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 166,000 in October, exceeding expectations, and following increases of 93,000 in August and 96,000 in September. Service-providing industries added 190,000 jobs during the month on strong gains in administrative services and health care. Goods-producing industries lost 24,000 jobs, but employment in the construction industry was virtually unchanged (-5,000). Residential specialty trade contractors dropped 13,000 jobs, but their nonresidential counterpart added 16,000. Local government education services, the source of some major revisions over the past few months, added 34,600 jobs in October for a total gain of 101,400 over the past three months.
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| Factory Orders
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November, 2007 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: New orders for manufactured goods inched up 0.2 percent (nonannualized) in September, following a 3.5 percent decrease in August. Excluding defense, new orders rose 1.3 percent, rebounding from August's 3.9 percent loss. However, durable goods orders fell 1.7 percent. Nondurable orders increased 2.1 percent. Shipments were virtually unchanged from August, while inventories expanded by 0.6 percent in September, its largest increase in a year.
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| ISM Manufacturing
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November, 2007 |
|
Brent Meyer; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: The ISM manufacturing index fell 1.1 points in October to 50.9 (a value above 50 equals growth), its lowest reading since March. The production index took a bit of a hit in October, falling 5 points to 49.6, and is now below 50 for the first time since January. The employment index continued to expand, rising from 51.7 to 52.0 in October. The prices paid index, which had been falling steadily since April, jumped 4 points t |
