Nonfarm payrolls edged down a slight 36,000 (changes of plus or minus 100k are needed for significance) in February, following a decrease of 26,000 in January. On net, back revisions (to the two previous months) added 35,000. Concerning the snow storms, the BLS added a technical note explaining that in order for the weather to have affected the estimates, employees must have been sidelined (not paid) for any part of that pay period (about half the survey has a pay period longer than one week). Also, there might have been additions due to hirings for snow removal, making any determination on the net effects of the storms “not possible to quantify precisely.” Turning to the details of February’s report, private payrolls fell 18,000, compared to losses of 33,000 in January and 83,000 in December. Construction employment saw the worst of it during the month, slipping down 64,000, and has now fallen by 1.9 million since December 2007. Manufacturing payrolls were essentially flat in February. The service side added 42,000 workers in February. As gains in temporary help services (up 48,000), education (up 12,000), and health services (up 20,000) more than offset losses in information industries (down 18,000), transportation (down 12,000), and financial activities (down 10,000). Federal government payrolls added 7,000 in February, mostly as temporary hiring for the Census (plus 15,000) offset a decline in postal service employment (down 9,000). Local government payrolls continue to shed workers, cutting 31,000 in February, and have trimmed 156,000 (or 1.1 percent) over the past year. Average weekly hours of production and nonsupervisory workers slipped down 0.2 hour to 33.1 hours, though this was largely due to a large decrease in construction hours, slipping from 37.8 hours to 36.8 hours, which the BLS noted likely reflected the “unusually severe winter storms.”

On the household side, the number of unemployed persons was virtually unchanged in February, and the unemployment rate remained at 9.7 percent (analysts expected a slight uptick to 9.8 percent). Also, the employment-to-population ratio improved for the second consecutive month, ticking up 0.1 percentage point (pp) to 58.5 percent in February.

Real GDP surged in the fourth quarter, increasing at an annualized rate of 5.7 percent (above most analysts estimates), following a 2.2 percent gain in the third quarter and pulling its four-quarter growth rate up to 0.1 percent (positive for the first time since 2008:Q3). Much of the fourth quarter’s increase was driven by a relatively large upswing in change in private inventories, which added 3.4 percentage points to real GDP growth, its largest quarterly contribution since 1984:Q1. Also contributing to the strong showing: real exports jumped up 18.1 percent during the quarter, roughly matching its increase from the third quarter and adding 1.9 percentage points (pp) to output growth. Offset some of the gain in exports, real imports rose 10.5 percent, leading to an overall contribution to growth from net exports of 0.5 pp. Personal consumption increased 2.0 percent in the fourth quarter, following a 2.8 percent increase in the third quarter, pulling its four-quarter growth rate up to 1.1 percent (from −0.2 percent previously). The two major components that comprise nonresidential investment continued to follow competing trends, though gains in equipment and software (E&S) edged out continued losses in structures leading to an overall contribution of 0.3 pp from BFI. Structures slipped down another 15.4 percent in the fourth quarter and are now down a whopping 24.7 percent on a year-over-year basis (a new post-war low). On the other hand, E&S jumped up 13.3 percent in the fourth quarter.

Final sales of domestic product—which is GDP less the change in private inventories—rose 2.2 percent in the fourth quarter, again beating expectations (with help from a relatively large jump in exports). However, final sales to domestic purchasers (GDP less inventories and net exports)—a measure some consider a closer proxy of domestic demand—rose just 1.7 percent in the fourth quarter, following a 2.3 percent gain in the third quarter.

Nonfarm payroll employment edged down just 11,000 in November (which is virtually unchanged, given that a month-to-month change of plus or minus 107,000 is needed for statistical significance), following a strong upward revision (+79,000) to October’s estimate, which now stands at &minus111,000. If the preliminary estimate stands, it will be the smallest monthly decrease since the start of the recession. There was a large upward revision to September’s estimate as well, leading to a total of 159,000 additional workers than previously known over the past two months (and making November’s estimate look even better). In November, losses in manufacturing, construction, and information payrolls were nearly offset by gains in health care and temporary help services. Private goods-producing employment slipped down by 69,000 during the month, compared to an average loss of 146,000 over the previous six months. Construction employment only fell by 27,000, its smallest monthly decline since August 2008. So, the most interesting move during the month was the 52,400 gain in temporary health services. There may be that much of the gain was due to the cyclical effects trumping the usual seasonal pattern ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, as retail sector employment may have been already slashed to a low level due to the severity of the recession, requiring a larger-than-normal influx of temporary help to cover the start of the holiday shopping season (that may be a stretch though). Still, temporary help services have been trending higher over the past three months (up 37,900), which some analysts may interpret as a nascent sign of recovery, arguing that employers may be “tentative” in hiring on a more permanent basis coming out of such a severe downturn. Regardless of your take on temporary employment, most of the major nonfarm sectors are exhibiting an improved trend over the last few months. Another positive sign in the establishment survey; the average workweek ticked up 0.2 hour to 33.2 hours, up from an all-time low of 33.0 hours posted last month.

On the household side, the unemployment rate ticked down by 0.2 percentage point to 10.0 percent in November, as the number of unemployed persons fell 325,000, after an increase of 558,000 in October. The civilian labor force contracted by 98,000 in November, and has fallen by a total of 700,000 over the past three months. An alternative (and somewhat less noisy) measure of labor market duress, the employment-to-population ratio remained flat at 58.5, its lowest level since 1983.

Sales of new single-family homes rose 6.2 percent in October, making up for the smaller declines of 1.0 percent and 2.4 percent in August and September. At the current annualized pace of 430,000 units, sales are up from January’s trough of 329,000 and are running at the strongest pace since last fall (September 2008). By region, sales actually declined in all but the South, with the Midwest facing the largest drop. The South accounts for roughly half of all new home sales, though, allowing it to account single-handedly for the overall increase in October.

The number of new homes on the market decreased for the thirtieth month in-a-row, slipping another 11,000 units to 239,000. October’s pick-up in sales pace and the steady decline in inventory further lowered the months’ supply to 6.7 months at the current sales pace, down for the seventh straight report and from January?s record high of 12.4 months. The median sales price rose a slight 0.7 percent following a modest increase in September, raising the 12-month growth rate from −6.4 percent up to −0.5 percent.

Real GDP was revised down from 3.5 percent to 2.8 percent in the third quarter (roughly in line with expectations), according to the second estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The 0.7 percentage point (pp) downward revision primarily reflected an upward adjustment to imports, and downward revisions to consumption and business fixed investment; that were only partially offset by an upward bump to exports. Real imports were revised up to a 20.8 percent jump in the third quarter, compared to a 16.4 percent increase in the advance release, resulting in an additional 0.5 pp takeaway from real GDP growth. Real consumption growth was revised from 3.4 percent to 2.9 percent during the quarter, subtracting 0.3 pp from output growth. Nonresidential investment was revised down from a 2.5 percent loss to a 4.1 percent decrease in the third quarter, still this is a substantial improvement from a 9.6 percent decline in the second quarter and a near 40 percent drop in the first quarter. Real exports were adjusted upward slightly, adding 0.2 percentage points to real GDP growth. Also during the revision, inventories and residential investment were revised down slightly, balanced by a modest upward adjustment to real government consumption.

Corporate profits were released alongside the GDP report, showing a 10.6 percent ($130 billion) jump during the third quarter, its third consecutive quarterly increase and largest since 2004Q1. Still, on a year-over-year basis profits are down 6.7 percent.

Single-family housing starts fell 6.8 percent in October, wiping away September’s upwardly revised gain of 6.2 percent. Housing starts have faltered in the past few months after seeing steady gains from February through July this year. Although October’s drop of 35,000 starts lowered the annual pace to 476,000 units, roughly where it sat in June, single-family starts have risen 33 percent from the record low in January. The unsteady mix of gains and losses in recent months set the 12-month growth rate back from −6.9 percent to −10.9 percent. Total starts dropped 10.6 percent in October, pulled down by a sizeable 34.6 percent decline in the more volatile multi-family starts series.

Permits for single-family homes were virtually unchanged in October, declining a small 0.2 percent after a 2.6 percent setback in September. By region, declines in the Midwest and South roughly balanced advances in the Northeast and West. The 12-month growth rate in permits continued to ascend, rising to −4.0 percent, its highest since March 2006.

Nonfarm payrolls fell by 190,000 in October, slightly underperforming expectations. However, estimates for August and September were both revised up rather strongly, for a combined total of 91,000. Payroll losses have continued on an improving trend, averaging losses of 188,000 over the past three months, compared to an average of −428,000 during the second quarter, and −691,000 during the first quarter. Private goods producing payrolls slipped down 129,000 in October, evenly split between manufacturing and construction sectors. Service sector payrolls fell by 61,000 during the month, as relatively large losses in the retail sector (down 40,000) and leisure and hospitality (−37,000) were partially offset by gains in education and health services (up 45,000) and professional and business service (up 18,000). There were a couple of small positives buried in the report. First, while the average workweek stayed at a series low of 33.0 hours, manufacturing overtime hours ticked up 0.2 hours to 3.0 hours, its largest monthly increase since March 2007. Also, average weekly earnings rose $1.65 in October, rebounding from a $1.54 dip in September, and are now up $5.38 from October of last year.

On the household side, the unemployment rate jumped up 0.4 percentage point to 10.2 percent, its highest rate since April 1983. The number of unemployed persons rose by 558,000 in October, while the civilian labor force stayed roughly constant. An alternative (and somewhat less noisy) measure of labor market duress, the employment-to-population ratio continued to decline in October, slipping down 0.3 percentage point to its lowest level since 1983—58.5 percent.

Nonfarm payrolls, though still solidly negative, continued to improve in August, decreasing 216,000 compared to an average loss of 482,000 over the past six months. However, revisions to June and July’s payroll estimates were to the downside, subtracting an additional 49,000 (though that came entirely from downward revisions to government payrolls). Private payrolls fell 198,000 in August its smallest decline in 12 months. Payroll losses moderated across most of the major categories in August. Goods-producing payrolls fell 136,000 in August, with losses evenly split between construction and manufacturing. Service sector employment fell by 80,000, following a 154,000 decline in July. Retail trade payrolls fell by just 10,000 in August, compared to an average loss of 41,000 over the past six months. Auto dealers, electronics and appliance stores, and department stores actually posted gains in August (a first for electronics stores in nearly a year and the first gain for auto dealers since October 2007).

After somewhat of an artificial tick-down in July (from 9.5 percent to 9.4 percent—on a decrease in the workforce) the unemployment rate rose 0.3 percentage point to 9.7 percent in August. The number of unemployed persons jumped up 466,000 in August after a 267,000 decrease in July (highlighting the volatility of the series), while 73,000 people entered the workforce during the month. An alternative (and somewhat less noisy) measure of labor market duress, the employment-to-population ratio slipped down 0.2 percentage point in August to its lowest level since 1984—59.2 percent.

The CPI was virtually unchanged in July, rising at an annualized rate of only 0.1 percent, as slight decreases in food and energy components were roughly balanced out by a 1.1 percent increase in the core CPI.

Nonfarm business sector productivity jumped up at an annualized rate of 6.4 percent in the second quarter, its largest gain since the third quarter of 2003. The rise in productivity was due to hours worked declining faster that output in the second quarter, falling 7.6 percent and 1.7 percent, respectively. Over the past four quarters, productivity is up 1.8 percent. Hourly compensation rose 0.2 percent in the second quarter, though after adjusting for inflation, “real” compensation fell 1.1 percent. The combination of rising productivity and flat compensation growth pushed unit labor costs—a measure some use to track the onset of inflationary pressures—down 5.8 percent, following a 2.7 percent decrease in the first quarter. Over the past year, unit labor costs have fallen 0.6 percent, posting a negative growth rate for the first time since the second quarter of 2004.

This release incorporated the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s comprehensive revision to the NIPAs. As a result, productivity in the first quarter of 2009 was revised down from 1.6 percent to 0.3 percent, and for 2008 the series was revised down by 1.0 percentage point to 1.8 percent. Unit labor costs were revised down from 3.0 percent to −2.7 percent in the first quarter, as hourly compensation was revised down from 4.6 percent to −2.4 percent alongside the downward revision to output. In contrast, unit labor costs remained largely unchanged over the past few years.

Nonfarm payroll employment fell by a less-than-expected 539,000 in April, posting its smallest decline in six months. However, the BLS noted that the gains to the government sector (up 72,000) were bolstered by the hiring of temporary workers for the 2010 Census survey. Revisions to the March and February estimates were to the downside again, subtracting an additional 66,000 and bringing total losses since the start of the recession to 5.7 million. Private nonfarm payrolls fell by 611,000 in April, less than the declines seen over the prior four months, but still fairly steep. Goods-producing payrolls decreased by 270,000, compared to an average of 339,000 over the three months prior. Construction employment fell by 110,000, while manufacturing employment declined by 149,000 in April. The private service sector shed 341,000 during the month, following declines of 375,000 in March and 393,000 in February. Overall, of the major components to the establishment data, only leisure & hospitality employment—which declined by 44,000—performed worse in April than it had last month (or the past few months for that matter).

On the household side, the unemployment rate jumped up 0.4 percentage point to 8.9 percent in April. However, that increase in the unemployment rate was driven in large part by a 683,000 worker spike in the labor force, which pushed up the participation rate by 0.3 percentage point to 65.8 percent. An alternative (and perhaps less-noisy) measure of employment—the employment-to-population ratio—remained steady at 59.9 percent in April.

Nonfarm payrolls decreased by 651,000 in February, bringing the total employment loss since the start of the recession to 4.4 million jobs (2.6 million within the last four months). As has been the pattern for every release since December 2007, prior monthly estimates were revised down. January’s estimate was revised down from −598,000 to −655,000 and December&rsqquo;s payrolls were adjusted down to −681,000 from −577,000 (a total of 104,000). Losses were widespread, with goods-producing industries shedding 276,000 (split fairly evenly between construction and manufacturing) and service-providing employment falling by 375,000. The retail trade sector lost 39,500 jobs in February, with 13,300 in losses from motor vehicle and parts dealers. Employment in the trucking industry fell by 33,400, roughly 3.0 percent. Employment in the financial sector decreased by 44,000 in February, temporary employment services payrolls decreased by 77,000, and employment in the leisure and hospitality sector fell by 33,000. Health care employment continued to outperform, rising 26,900, but education employment showed some signs of slipping, falling 4,200 in February. Since December 2007, education and health services payrolls have risen 579,000.

On the household side, the unemployment rate jumped up again, from 7.6 percent to 8.1 percent (more than was expected). Since October 2008, the average monthly increase in the unemployment rate has been 0.4 percentage point.

Nonfarm payrolls continued its freefall in January, shedding 598,000 (more than was expected) and bringing total losses since the start of the recession to 3.6 million jobs, with roughly half of the losses coming in the last three months. Estimates for November and December’s payrolls were revised down by a total of 66,000. Losses in January were widespread across most industries. Goods-producing employment fell by 317,000, as the manufacturing sector plummeted by 207,000 (its largest monthly decline since October 1982). Service-providing payrolls sloughed-off 279,000 in January, following a 327,000 loss in December. Retail trade employment declined by 45,100, while the financial sector saw employment decrease by 42,000 in January. Transportation and warehousing employment fell by 44,000 in January, with 25,000 in losses coming from truck transportation. Excluding a strike-related decrease of 49,000 in April 1994, this is the deepest loss to trucking payrolls on record (back to 1990) and may be indicative of further losses in retail sales and industrial production. On a positive note, education and health services payrolls continued to expand, rising 54,000 in January.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics’s annual benchmark revisions to nonfarm employment was released today. According to the BLS, “These counts are derived principally from the unemployment insurance tax records compiled by the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program.” As a result, the December 2008 employment level was 311,000 less than previously estimated.

On the household side, the unemployment rate jumped up from 7.2 percent to 7.6 percent, as the number of unemployed workers increased by 508,000, while the civilian labor force contracted by 731,000 (its largest monthly contraction since May 1995).