Michael F. Bryan |

Vice President and Economist

Michael Bryan is a vice president and economist in the Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. He specializes in business analysis, with an emphasis on measuring and tracking inflation trends.

Mr. Bryan joined the Bank as a bank examiner in 1978 and transferred to the Research Department the next year. In 1986, Mr. Bryan served as an economist in the Research Division of the Federal Reserve System’s Board of Governors in Washington, D.C. He was promoted to the position of economic advisor in 1991, and appointed as a bank officer in 1995. In 1998, he was a visiting scholar at the Bank of Japan’s Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies in Tokyo, and in 2000, he was a visiting economist at the Swedish Riksbank in Stockholm. In addition to his Bank duties, Mr. Bryan also teaches in the Department of Economics at Cleveland State University and has served on the faculties of Baldwin-Wallace College and Case Western Reserve University, both in Cleveland.

A native of Cleveland, Mr. Bryan earned an undergraduate degree in business from Miami University in Oxford, Ohio, and a graduate degree in economics from Case Western Reserve University. He has authored more than 50 articles on a wide range of topics.

Fed Publications
Other Publications
Work in Progress

Title	Date	Publication	Author(s)	Type
Are Some Prices in the CPI More Forward Looking than Others? We Think So.	May, 2010		Michael F Bryan; Brent Meyer;	Economic Commentary
	Abstract: Some of the items that make up the Consumer Price Index change prices frequently, while others are slow to change. We explore whether these two sets of prices—sticky and flexible—provide insight on different aspects of the inflation process. We find that sticky prices appear to incorporate expectations about future inflation to a greater degree than prices that change on a frequent basis, while flexible prices respond more powerfully to economic conditions—economic slack. Importantly, our sticky-price measure seems to contain a component of inflation expectations, and that component may be useful when trying to gauge where inflation is heading.
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Mirror, Mirror, Who's the Best Forecaster of Them All?	March, 2007	Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Commentary	Michael F Bryan; Linsey Molloy;	Economic Commentary
	Abstract: Say you need an accurate forecast of future GDP or inflation. What's your best bet-the economist who was hot last year or the forecaster in the middle? The record indicates it's tough to consistently beat the median prediction.
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Testing Near-Rationality Using Detailed Survey Data	April, 2005	Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Working Paper no. 0502	Michael F Bryan; Stefan Palmqvist;	Working Papers
	Abstract: This paper considers the evidence of "near-rationality," as described by Akerlof, Dickens, and Perry (2000). Using detailed surveys of household inflation expectations for the United States and Sweden, we find that the data are generally unsupportive of the near-rationality hypothesis. However, we document that household inflation expectations tend to settle around discrete and largely fixed "focal points," suggesting that both U.S. and Swedish households gauge inflation prospects in rather broad, qualitative terms. Moreover, the combination of a low-inflation environment and an inflation target in Sweden has been accompanied by a disproportionately high proportion of Swedish households expecting no inflation. However, a similar low inflation trend in the United States, which does not have an explicit inflation target, reveals no such rise in the proportion of households expecting no inflation. This observation suggests that the way the central bank communicates its inflation objective may influence inflation expectations independently of the inflation trend it actually pursues.
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Island Money	February, 2004	Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Commentary	Michael F Bryan;	Economic Commentary
	Abstract: On a small group of islands in the South Pacific, the people use a “money” so astonishing it often gets mentioned in classroom discussions on the subject. This Commentary takes a closer look at the stone money of Yap and asks what such an odd form of money can teach us about our own.
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The Trime	January, 2004	Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Commentary	Michael F Bryan;	Economic Commentary
	Abstract: You might not have heard of the trime, the tiny 3-cent silver coin minted in the United States from 1851 to 1873, but it may have played a big role in shaping the kind of money you carry around in your wallet today.
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Fear and Loathing of Central Banks in America	June, 2002	Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Commentary	Michael F Bryan; Bruce A Champ;	Economic Commentary
	Abstract: The Federal Reserve System is America’s uneasy compromise between our wariness of concentrated financial power and our desire to promote efficiency in our national payments system. In fact, the Federal Reserve is the nation’s third attempt to establish a large national bank—what we now call a central bank— that is in a unique position to influence a nation’s money and credit. This Commentary retells the story of the rise and fall of the two earlier national banks, both named the Bank of the United States.
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Is It More Expensive, or Does It Just Cost More Money?	May, 2002	Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Commentary	Michael F Bryan;	Economic Commentary
	Abstract: Most of us, from the general public to professional economists, use the term inflation pretty loosely. It’s increasingly applied to any rise in prices, and even economists use it interchangeably with a rise in the cost of living. This Commentary explains what inflation is, why it should be kept distinct from a rise in the cost of living, and how some statistical measures attempt to distinguish between the two.
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The Curiously Different Inflation Perspectives of Men and Women	November, 2001	Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Commentary	Michael F Bryan; Guhan Venkatu;	Economic Commentary
	Abstract: That men and women occasionally see things differently is not a remarkable observation. But that the sexes could report vastly different perspectives on the rate at which prices are rising over a long period of time is astonishing. This Commentary describes the difference in inflation sentiment held by men and women—a puzzle that may hold the key to interpreting survey-based data on household inflation expectations.
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The Demographics of Inflation Opinion Surveys	October, 2001	Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Commentary	Michael F Bryan; Guhan Venkatu;	Economic Commentary
	Abstract: In this Commentary, we document that people report very different perceptions and predictions of inflation depending upon their income, education, age, race, and gender—a strange finding that may provide an important clue to understanding how to interpret survey data of inflation expectations.
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Who Is that Guy on the $10 Bill?	June, 2000	Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Commentary	Michael F Bryan; Bruce A Champ; Jennifer K Ransom;	Economic Commentary
	Abstract: Alexander Hamilton is the least known and most misunderstood of our nation’s founders. His contributions include creating a monetary standard, establishing our banking system, and ensuring the young nation’s creditworthiness. This Economic Commentary explains how much of our financial strength we owe to Hamilton.
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On the origin and evolution of the word inflation	October, 1997	Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Commentary	Michael F Bryan;	Economic Commentary
	Abstract: A historical look at the origin and uses of the word inflation, arguing that although the term has become nearly synonymous with "price increase," its original meaning--a rise in the general price level caused by an imbalance between the quantity of money and trade needs--is the definition driving many of those who advocate an anti-inflation policy for the Federal Reserve.
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Bad Standards	October, 1997	Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Commentary	Michael F Bryan;	Economic Commentary
	Abstract: The measurement standards that we take for granted today, such as for weight, length, time, and temperature, were not always so exact. Over the years, we have come to appreciate the importance of maintaining consistent standards in our measurement of these and other subjective phenomena. Why, then, do we not demand the same rigorous adherence to a standard when it comes to our measure of value - the dollar? We should."
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Efficient Inflation Expectation	January, 1997	Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Working Paper no. 9707	Michael F Bryan; Stephen Cecchetti; Rodney L Wiggins. II;	Working Papers
	Abstract: This paper investigates the use of trimmed means as high-frequency estimators of inflation. The known characteristics of price change distributions, specifically the . observation that they generally exhibit high levels of kurtosis, imply that simple averages of price data are unlikely to produce efficient estimates of inflation. Trimmed means produce superior estimates of 'core inflation,' which we define as a long-run centered moving average of CPI and PPI inflation. We find that trimming 9% from each tail of the CPI price-change distribution, or 45% from the tails of the PPI price-change distribution, yields an efficient estimator of core inflation for these two series, although lesser trims also produce substantial efficiency gains. Historically, the optimal trimmed estimators are found to be nearly 23% more efficient (in terms of root-mean-square error) than the standard mean CPI, and 45% more efficient than the mean PPI. Moreover, the efficient estimators are robust to sample period and to the definition of the presumed underlying long-run trend in inflation.
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The consumer price index and national saving	October, 1995	Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Commentary	Michael F Bryan; Jagadeesh Gokhale;	Economic Commentary
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The seasonality of consumer prices	June, 1995	Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Review, vol. 31, no. 2, pp. 12-23	Michael F Bryan;	Economic Review
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Year-end report of the Fourth District Economists' Roundtable	December, 1994	Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Commentary	Michael F Bryan; John B Martin;	Economic Commentary
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Midyear report of the Fourth District Economist's Roundtable	August, 1994	Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Commentary	Michael F Bryan; John B Martin;	Economic Commentary
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Report of the Fourth District Economists' Roundtable	January, 1994	Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Commentary	Michael F Bryan; John B Martin;	Economic Commentary
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The consumer price index as a measure of inflation	December, 1993	Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Review, vol. 29, no. 4, pp. 15-24	Michael F Bryan; Stephen Cecchetti;	Economic Review
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Measuring core inflation	January, 1993	Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Working Paper no. 9304	Michael F Bryan; Stephen Cecchetti;	Working Papers
	Abstract: An analysis of the use of limited-information estimators as measures of core inflation, showing that these estimators, such as the median of the cross-sectional distribution of inflation, have a higher correlation with past money growth and deliver improved forecasts of future inflation relative to the Consumer Price Index.
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The business cycle, investment and a wayward M2: a midyear review	July, 1992	Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Commentary	Michael F Bryan;	Economic Commentary
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Can conventional theory explain the unconventional recovery?	April, 1992	Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Commentary	Michael F Bryan; David E Altig;	Economic Commentary
	Abstract: An argument that the sluggishness of the current economic recovery reflects a permanent, structural change in the economy that may not be easily addressed using the standard monetary/fiscal incentives called for in the conventional view of business cycles, and that structural adjustment is a critical component of all economic fluctuations.
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Median price changes: an alternative approach to measuring current monetary inflation	December, 1991	Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Commentary	Michael F Bryan; Christopher J Pike;	Economic Commentary
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Realignment in the U.S. motor vehicle industry	June, 1991	Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Commentary	Michael F Bryan; John B Martin;	Economic Commentary
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A Different Kind of Money Illusion: The Case of Long and Variable Lags	January, 1991	Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Working Paper no. 9122	Michael F Bryan; William T Gavin;	Working Papers
	Abstract: An analysis of how the money supply process can affect the cross-covariance structure of inflation and monetary growth, showing that the Federal Reserve's change in emphasis to monetary targeting in late 1979 could have made the apparently long lag from money growth to inflation virtually disappear in the 1980s.
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Forecast Accuracy and Monetary Policy	January, 1991	Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Commentary	Michael F Bryan; William T Gavin;	Economic Commentary
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Oil, the economy, and monetary policy	November, 1990	Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Commentary	Michael F Bryan; Gerald H Anderson; Christopher J Pike;	Economic Commentary
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Don't worry, we'll grow out of it: an analysis of demographics, consumer spending, and foreign debt	October, 1990	Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Commentary	Michael F Bryan; Susan M Byrne;	Economic Commentary
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Inflation and Growth: Working More versus Working Better	August, 1990	Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Commentary	Michael F Bryan;	Economic Commentary
	Abstract: An examination of how inflation reduces economic welfare by causing people to work harder.
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Foreign Capital Inflows: Another Trojan Horse	November, 1989	Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Commentary	Michael F Bryan; Gerald H Anderson;	Economic Commentary
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Foreign Capital Inflows: Another Trojan Horse?	November, 1989	Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Commentary	Michael F Bryan; Gerald H Anderson;	Economic Commentary
	Abstract: An analysis of the role of foreign investment in U.S. resource allocation, finding that the large influx of foreign capital in the 1980s has been used predominantly to fund domestic investment and consumer investment spending.
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Views from Ohio Manufacturing Index	January, 1987	Federal Reserve Bank of Clevealnd, Economic Review, vol. 23, no. 1	Michael F Bryan; Ralph Day;	Economic Review
	Abstract: An introduction to the experimental Ohio Manufacturing Index and a brief examination of the recent patterns of manufacturing growth occurring in the state.
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Comparing Inflation Expectations of Households and Economists: Is a little knowledge a dangerous thing?	July, 1986	Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Review, vol. 22, no. 3	Michael F Bryan; William T Gavin;	Economic Review
	Abstract: A comparison of the performance of forecasts by economists (the Livingston survey), households (the Michigan Survey of Consumer Finances), and a time series model (ARIMA).
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The Emerging Service Economy	June, 1986	Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Commentary	Michael F Bryan; Patricia E Beeson;	Economic Commentary
	Abstract: A description and examination of the expanding service economy, with the contention that its growth reflects a natural and inevitable response to rising wealth.
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American Automobile Manufacturing: It’s Turning Japanese	March, 1986	Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Commentary	Michael F Bryan; Michael W Dvorak;	Economic Commentary
	Abstract: A discussion of the movement of Japanese auto production facilities to the United States, with emphasis on conditions in the Fourth Federal Reserve District and on growth of the just-in-time inventory supply process.
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Beauty and the bulls: the investment characteristics of paintings.	August, 1985		Michael F Bryan;	Economic Review
	Abstract: An examination of the investment and consumption characteristics of the paintings market between 1971 and 1984, using the capital asset pricing model.
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Is Manufacturing Disappearing?	July, 1985	Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Commentary	Michael F Bryan;	Economic Commentary
	Abstract: An analysis of broad national and regional trends in manufacturing that questions the validity of many popular beliefs about the decline of the manufacturing sector.
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The Financial Distress in American Farming	June, 1985	Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Commentary	Michael F Bryan; Gary Whalen;	Economic Commentary
	Abstract: An analysis of the uneven distribution of problem debt among the nation’s farmers, a discussion of the effect of this debt on agricultural banks, and an estimate of the probable impact of farm debt problems on the nation
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Will Taxing Imports Help?	March, 1985	Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Commentary	Michael F Bryan; Owen F Humpage;	Economic Commentary
	Abstract: An examination of the possible impact on U.S. consumers and producers of placing an across-the-board tariff surcharge on imported goods.
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Beauty and the Bulls: The Investment Characteristics of Paintings	January, 1985	Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Review, vol. 21, no. 1	Michael F Bryan;	Economic Review
	Abstract: An examination of the investment and consumption characteristics of the paintings market between 1971 and 1984, using the capital asset pricing model.
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The Costs of a Protectionist Cure	July, 1984	Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Commentary	Michael F Bryan; Owen F Humpage;	Economic Commentary
	Abstract: A discussion of the price and quantity effects on the U.S. consumer of the Japanese auto industry’s voluntary export restraint program.
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The Mythology of Domestic Content	June, 1983	Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Commentary	Michael F Bryan;	Economic Commentary
	Abstract: A commentary on free trade and the auto industry, with a discussion of the growth of Japanese auto imports, the cost and effect of import restrictions, and the probable effects of proposed domestic content legislation.
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Issues in the 1983 Auto-Sales Outlook	March, 1983	Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Commentary	Michael F Bryan;	Economic Commentary
	Abstract: An analysis of the changing auto market and of factors affecting sales (such as consumer income, costs, sticker shock, and affordability), plus a discussion of expectations of 1983 sales.
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Anatomy of a Price-Fix	July, 1982	Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Commentary	Michael F Bryan;	Economic Commentary
	Abstract: An analysis of a price-fixing scheme among retail food chains in the Cleveland, Ohio area that resulted in criminal charges and a $4.2 million fine against the perpetrators, plus a discussion of consumer damages involved in the case.
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Unemployment Insurance: An Old Lesson for the New Federalism?	April, 1982	Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Commentary	Michael F Bryan;	Economic Commentary
	Abstract: An examination of America’s unemployment insurance system, covering its origin and financing, its solvency problems, and the potential effects of the Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1981 as an example of what might be expected from defederalizing government programs.
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Military Spending and the Economic Outlook	July, 1981	Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Commentary	Michael F Bryan; Owen F Humpage;	Economic Commentary
	Abstract: The United States is embarking on an unprecedented increase. in peacetime military spending. The program has prompted heated discussions about the implications of defense spending for real output, employment, and prices.
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The Consumer Price Index: Concepts, Construction, and Controversy	July, 1980	Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Commentary	Michael F Bryan;	Economic Commentary
	Abstract: This Economic Commentary examines the construction of the Consumer Price Index and explores some of the inherent problems that have prompted the controversy surrounding its use in measuring inflation, particularly during periods of rapidly changing prices.
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Title	Date	Publication	Author(s)	Type
Asset Prices in the Measurement of Inflation	January, 2002	NBER Working Paper, no. 8700	Michael F Bryan; Stephen Cecchetti; Roisin O'Sullivan;	Working Paper, Other
Asset Prices in the Measurement of Inflation	Abstract: The debate over including asset prices in the construction of an inflation statistic has attracted renewed attention in recent years. Virtually all of this (and earlier) work on incorporating asset prices into an aggregate price statistic has been motivated by a presumed, but unidentified transmission mechanism through which asset prices are leading indicators of inflation at the retail level. In this paper, we take an alternative, longer-term perspective on the issue and argue that the exclusion of asset prices introduces an 'excluded goods bias' in the computation of the inflation statistic that is of interest to the monetary authority. We implement this idea using a relatively modern statistical technique, a dynamic factor index. This statistical algorithm allows us to see through the excessively 'noisy' asset price data that have frustrated earlier researchers who have attempted to integrate these prices into an aggregate measure. We find that the failure to include asset prices in the aggregate price statistic has introduced a downward bias in the U.S. Consumer Price Index on the order of magnitude of roughly 1/4 percentage point annually. Of the three broad assets categories considered here -- equities, bonds, and houses -- we find that the failure to include housing prices resulted in the largest potential measurement error. This conclusion is also supported by a cursory look at some cross-country evidence.
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Asset Prices in the Measurement of Inflation	January, 2001	De Economist, vol. 149, 2001	Michael F Bryan; Stephen Cecchetti; Roisin O'Sullivan;	Journal Article
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Inflation and the Distribution of Prices	May, 1999	Review of Economics and Statistics, vol. 81, no. 2, May 1999, pp. 188-96	Michael F Bryan; Stephen Cecchetti;	Journal Article
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The Monthly Measurement of Core Inflation in Japan	May, 1999	Monetary and Economic Studies, vol. 17, no. 1, May 1999, pp. 77-101	Michael F Bryan; Stephen Cecchetti;	Journal Article
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The Monthly Measurement of Core Inflation in Japan	May, 1999	Quarterly Review, Bank of Japan, May 1999	Michael F Bryan; Stephen Cecchetti;	Journal Article
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Inflation and the Distribution of Price Changes	October, 1996	National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper no. 5793, October 1996	Michael F Bryan; Stephen Cecchetti; Rodney L Wiggins. II;	Working Paper, Other
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The Seasonality of Consumer Prices	July, 1995	National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper no. 5173, July 1995	Michael F Bryan; Stephen Cecchetti;	Working Paper, Other
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A Different Kind of Money Illusion: The Case of Long and Variable Lags	October, 1994	Journal of Policy Modeling, vol. 16, no. 5, October 1994, pp. 529-40	Michael F Bryan; William T Gavin;	Journal Article
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Measuring Core Inflation	January, 1994	In: Monetary Policy, edited by Gregory N. Mankiw, National Bureau of Economic Research Studies in Business Cycles, vol. 29 (1994)	Michael F Bryan; Stephen Cecchetti;	Article in Book
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The Consumer Price Index as a Measure of Inflation	October, 1993	National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper no. 4505, October 1993	Michael F Bryan; Stephen Cecchetti;	Working Paper, Other
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Measuring Core Inflation	March, 1993	National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper no. 4303, March 1993	Michael F Bryan; Stephen Cecchetti;	Working Paper, Other
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Models of Inflation Expectations Formation: A Comparison of Household and Economist Forecasts: A Comment	November, 1986	Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, vol. 18, no. 4, November 1986, pp. 539-44	Michael F Bryan; William T Gavin;	Journal Article
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Title	Date	Publication	Author(s)	Type
The Demographic Characteristics of Household Inflation Expectations Surveys	August, 2000	Paper presented at the Joint Statistical Meetings	Michael F Bryan;	Unpublished manuscript
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A Note on the Meaning and Measurement of Core Inflation in Brazil	July, 2000	Paper presented at the One Year of Inflation Targeting in Brazil Conference of the Central Bank of Brazil, July 2000	Michael F Bryan;	Unpublished manuscript
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The Efficient Estimation of Inflation	January, 1997	National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper, no. 6183	Michael F Bryan; Stephen Cecchetti; Rodney L Wiggins. II;	Working Paper, Other
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Michael F. Bryan |