News from the Fed

  • Price measures continue to show progress toward the Fed’s inflation target, say Cleveland Fed researchers
  • How close is the Federal Reserve to its longer-run inflation target of 2 percent? The answer depends on which inflation measure you look at, say Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Vice President Todd Clark and Senior Research Analyst William Bednar. Read more
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  • Using an alternate measure of trend inflation in Phillips curve forecasting models eliminates "missing disinflation," says Cleveland Fed researcher
  • Some inflation-forecasting models based on the Phillips curve suggest that there should have been more disinflation since the Great Recession than has actually occurred. Read more
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  • Cleveland Fed study highlights growing importance of multi-establishment businesses to job creation
  • The rate at which Americans start new businesses has declined significantly over the past three decades, raising concerns about the state of entrepreneurship in the US and the important role that new companies play in job creation. Read more
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  • Cleveland Fed Estimates of Expected Inflation
  • The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland reports that its latest estimate of 10-year expected inflation is 1.89 percent. In other words, the public currently expects the inflation rate to be less than 2 percent on average over the next decade. Read more
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  • Inflation Expectations
  • Inflation Nowcasting
  • Median CPI
  • Credit Easing
  • CFSI

Estimates of Inflation Expectations

Estimates of inflation expectations, the real interest rate, and the inflation risk premium. 

Median Consumer Price Index

Inflation Nowcasting

Forecasts of today's inflation rates in the CPI and the PCE price index. 

 

  Quarterly annualized percent change  
Nowcast quarter CPI Core CPI PCE Core PCE Updated
2014:Q31.731.71.51.509/02/2014

Median Consumer Price Index

A more accurate measure of the underlying inflation trend. 

Median Consumer Price Index

Credit Easing Policy Tools

Compare the amounts of different assets on the Federal Reserve balance sheet, from T-bills to mortgage-backed securities. 

Median Consumer Price Index

Cleveland Financial Stress Index
 
09/01: -0.95

0.009 decrease
over the past seven days   

Chart.

Latest Economic Research

  • Industries, Job Growth, and Poverty Trends 
  • Anne Chen, and  
  • The shares of a county’s employment that are in each major industry classification are correlated with the county’s poverty rate. Employment shares in healthcare and public administration, for example, are positively correlated with poverty rates, while employment shares in professional services and construction are negatively correlated with poverty rates. In this analysis, we examine some of the changes in these correlations in recent years. We will also look at the changes in industry employment that have accompanied changes in county poverty rates. Read more  
  • The Evolution of Household Leverage during the Recovery 
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  • Recent research has shown that geographic areas that experienced greater household deleveraging during the recession also experienced relatively severe economic contractions and slower recoveries. This analysis explores geographic variations in household debt over the past recession and recovery. It finds that regions that had very high household leverage at the start of the recession have shifted back toward national norms, while the variation of leverage within metro areas has maintained steady relationships with neighborhood characteristics such as location, demographics, and the age of the housing stock. Read more  (PDF)  
  • The Importance of Trend Inflation in the Search for Missing Disinflation 
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  • Some inflation-forecasting models based on the Phillips curve suggest that there should have been more disinflation since the Great Recession than has shown up in core PCE or core CPI data. One way researchers have found to make the disinflation disappear is to remove the long-term unemployed from the overall unemployment measure that is typically used in the models. This analysis shows that the disinflation arises in such models because of the way they account for the long-term trend in inflation. Under a different measurement of trend inflation, which historical forecast accuracy suggests should be preferable, the recent path of inflation can be reasonably well explained by an inflation-forecasting model that incorporates the overall unemployment rate. Read more  (PDF)  

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