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Regional Analysis

Monitoring economic conditions in the Fourth Federal Reserve District to inform monetary policy and improve the public’s understanding of the regional economy.

Beige Book
View a summary of regional economic activity
Publications
Read our latest Regional Policy Reports and District Data Briefs
Data
See early benchmark employment data for our district

What We Do

The Regional Analysis group monitors the economy in the Fourth Federal Reserve District by tracking a variety of data and indicators and by gathering information from business and community leaders. We convene Business Advisory Councils in eight metro areas across the district, and we conduct regular surveys and interviews with business contacts to learn more about changes in customer demand, hiring, pricing, and more. We combine these insights with data to support our president's policymaking responsibilities and improve the public's understanding of how the region’s economy is evolving. In our research publications, we also provide insightful perspectives on public-policy questions that are important to our region's longer-term economic prosperity.

Beige Book

Summary of economic activity

On balance, Fourth District business activity increased modestly over the recent period, and contacts expected similar conditions to persist in the months ahead. Consumer spending firmed, though some retailers reported that discretionary spending remained soft. Demand for manufactured goods was flat, and manufacturers noted softer orders as customers rebalanced inventories. Demand for new homes strengthened, according to homebuilders; meanwhile, existing home sales were constrained by a shortage of inventory. Employment levels increased at a modest rate in recent weeks, the first notable increase in the last six months, and overall wage growth edged up to a moderate pace. Overall, nonlabor cost pressures continued to be moderate, while selling prices increased slightly. Contact reports suggested that both appeared to be stabilizing compared to prior years.

Read the Beige Book report
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Publications

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Regional Policy Reports
Regional Policy Reports are mid-length, economically focused essays that provide public policymakers and other stakeholders insightful analyses of policy issues that are important to the economic vitality of the region we serve.
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District Data Briefs
District Data Briefs offer accessible, short-form data analyses that allow our regional economists to highlight some of the data they examine and share insights about what the data tells us about our region’s economy.
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Latest Data

Early benchmark employment estimates for Fourth District states and metro areas

Every March, the Labor Department releases revised local employment estimates by using a nearly complete count of employment from an administrative dataset. Since these administrative data are available quarterly with an approximately six-month lag, researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland compute an early-benchmark employment estimate for regions in the Fourth District. These estimates are intended to approximate the annual March revisions prior to their official release.

Last updated: March 19, 2024 (Last observation: January 2024)

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Related Content

Indicators and Data
The Cleveland Fed maintains a broad range of indicators and datasets that are available for download, including median CPI, median PCE inflation, inflation expectations, yield curve and GDP growth, and simple monetary policy rules.
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Request a speaker
The Cleveland Fed’s Speakers Bureau offers access to experts who can offer insight on a broad range of topics. Fed speakers can give presentations or serve as panelists, providing an exchange of ideas that fosters discussion and encourages audience involvement. We work with professional, business, and civic groups. This free service is available to groups of 25 or more.
Learn more
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Meet the Regional Analysis group
Meet the economists, researchers, and analysts and learn about their areas of expertise.

Our Region

States making up the Fourth District

The Fourth District encompasses Ohio, western Pennsylvania, eastern Kentucky, and the northern panhandle of West Virginia. Within our borders lies a range of industries—from manufacturing and medicine to advanced technology—across a variety of communities, including older industrial cities and rural Appalachian areas. In our work, we analyze quantitative and qualitative data on topics including economic activity and consumer spending, labor and housing markets, household finance, and longer-term demographic and industrial trends.

The Cleveland Fed’s district includes the entire state of Ohio; 56 counties in Kentucky, all of which are located in the eastern portion of the state; 19 counties in the western third of Pennsylvania; and 6 counties in West Virginia, located in the northern panhandle of the state.

Business Advisory Councils
Business Advisory Council members are recruited annually and represent a cross-section of regional businesses, labor organizations, and economic-development organizations to ensure that data collected on the regional economy reflect the views of an array of stakeholders.
Members of the Business Advisory Councils
Industrial heartland

The industrial heartland is a geographic and economic region of the United States that comprises those parts of the Midwest and surrounding areas that have relied on manufacturing for a significant share of their economic well-being for most of the last century.