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Indicators & Data

Survey of Firms' Inflation Expectations (SoFIE)

Update Schedule

Last updated
February 12, 2024

Next update
May 13, 2024

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Further Info

About the Survey of Firms’ Inflation Expectations

For further information please contact CLEV Public Information.

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  • Description: The Survey of Firms’ Inflation Expectations (SoFIE) is a large quarterly representative panel of firms in the manufacturing and services sectors that was created to measure inflation expectations of chief executive officers (CEOs) in the United States.
  • What do we collect? Each quarter the survey captures respondents’ beliefs for expected CPI inflation over the next 12 months. Once per year it asks about beliefs for average CPI inflation over the next 5 years, CPI inflation over the last 12 months, the Federal Reserve’s inflation target, and the probability that CPI inflation over the next 12 months will exceed 5%.
  • Table 1: Expected CPI inflation over the next 12 months
    Date (YYYY.Q format)Mean (%)Standard deviation (percentage points)
    2018.23.21.7
    2018.32.91.1
    2018.43.21.1
    2019.13.00.9
    2019.21.90.5
    2019.32.40.5
    2019.41.90.4
    2020.12.10.4
    2020.21.81.0
    2020.31.70.9
    2020.42.20.6
    2021.12.30.7
    2021.22.90.8
    2021.35.22.8
    2021.45.22.2
    2022.15.72.4
    2022.27.22.5
    2022.37.02.9
    2022.47.32.1
    2023.16.02.0
    2023.25.01.6
    2023.34.31.7
    2023.44.21.5
    2024.13.41.2
    Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
  • Table 2A: Perceived Federal Reserve inflation target
    Date (YYYY.Q format)Mean (%)Standard deviation (percentage points)
    2018.22.40.7
    2019.22.20.6
    2020.21.70.6
    2021.22.60.7
    2022.23.72.1
    2023.23.11.3
    Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
  • Table 2B: Estimated CPI inflation over the past 12 months
    Date (YYYY.Q format)Mean (%)Standard deviation (percentage points)
    2018.32.71.3
    2019.32.10.4
    2020.32.30.6
    2021.34.52.9
    2022.38.32.8
    2023.35.62.1
    Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
  • Table 2C: Expected average CPI inflation over the next 5 years
    Date (YYYY.Q format)Mean (%)Standard deviation (percentage points)
    2018.43.41.7
    2019.42.20.8
    2020.43.20.7
    2021.44.93.9
    2022.45.42.6
    2023.43.71.7
    Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
  • Table 2D: Probability that CPI inflation over the next 12 months will exceed 5%
    Date (YYYY.Q format)Mean (%)Standard deviation (percentage points)
    2019.129.224.6
    2020.111.315.4
    2021.117.725.4
    2022.154.234.0
    2023.149.935.3
    2024.121.927.7
    Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Data Downloads

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Background

About the Survey of Firms’ Inflation Expectations

The Survey of Firms’ Inflation Expectations (SoFIE) was created by Olivier Coibion and Yuriy Gorodnichenko.  The research was funded in part by National Science Foundation grant 1530467. Ongoing survey funding is provided by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Further details can be found in the references cited under Related Research.

Microdata questions should be sent to clev.data@clev.frb.org.

  • The Survey of Firms’ Inflation Expectations (SoFIE) is a nationally representative, quarterly survey of chief executive officers (CEOs) and other top executives started by Olivier Coibion and Yuriy Gorodnichenko in the second quarter of 2018. Survey data are collected during the first month of each quarter (January, April, July, and October). The dataset contains a limited number of characteristics about each respondent’s firm, including sector, industry, and size. The surveyed firms represent various industries within either the manufacturing sector or the services sector. Within the manufacturing sector, companies are classified into food and drink, textiles and clothing, electrical, chemicals and plastics, transport, timber and paper, basic metals, mechanical engineering, and other manufacturing. Within the services sector, the companies are classified into hotels and restaurants, transport and storage, post and telecommunication, financial intermediation, renting and business activities, and other services. Additionally, firms are classified as small, with 1 to 19 employees; medium, 20 to 249 employees; or large, 250 or more employees. Firms are repeatedly sampled in the survey, providing a panel dimension at the individual-firm level.

    Questions

    SoFIE is a set of five questions asked as part of a longer privately-run survey that is administered by an external company. In each quarter, respondents are asked the following question:

    Question 1: “What do you think will be the inflation rate (for the Consumer Price Index) over the next 12 months? Please provide an answer in an annual percentage rate.”

    There is also a second question that rotates among a set of four questions. The rotation is as follows:

    Question 2A, asked each April (second quarter) survey wave: “What annual inflation rate do you think the U.S. Federal Reserve is trying to achieve on average?”

    Question 2B, asked each July (third quarter) survey wave: “What do you think has been the annual inflation rate (for the Consumer Price Index) over the last twelve months? Please provide an answer in annual percentage rate.”

    Question 2C, asked each October (fourth quarter) survey wave: “What do you think will be the average inflation rate (for the Consumer Price Index) over the next 5 years? Please provide an average annual percentage rate.”

    Question 2D, asked each January (first quarter) survey wave: “What do you think is the probability that the annual inflation rate (for the Consumer Price Index) over the next 12 months will exceed 5%?”

    Each quarter, we report the mean and standard deviation for Question 1 and the second question asked.

  • For a complete and detailed methodology for SoFIE, download the PDF.

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Related Research

  • Economic Commentary: The Survey of Firms' Inflation Expectations
  • Candia, Bernardo, Olivier Coibion, and Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2021. "The Inflation Expectations of U.S. Firms: Evidence from a new survey," NBER Working Paper 28836. (PDF)
  • Candia, Bernardo, Olivier Coibion, and Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2020. "Communication and the Beliefs of Economic Agents," in Navigating the Decade Ahead: Implications for Monetary Policy, Economic Policy Symposium (Jackson Hole, WY) Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. (PDF)
  • Coibion, Olivier, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Saten Kumar, and Mathieu Pedemonte, 2020. "Inflation Expectations as a Policy Tool?" Journal of International Economics 124: 103297. (PDF)
Center for Inflation Research

The Cleveland Fed’s Center for Inflation Research is the hub for “all things inflation,” providing a combination of research, analyses and data, background and commentary, and an annual conference series dedicated to inflation.