Guhan Venkatu |

Vice President and Senior Regional Officer


Guhan Venkatu, Vice President and Senior Regional Officer

Guhan Venkatu is vice president and senior regional officer at the Pittsburgh Branch of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Mr. Venkatu has 15 years of Reserve Bank experience and is responsible for maintaining a strong presence for the Bank throughout western Pennsylvania, southeastern Ohio, and the northern panhandle of West Virginia. As the senior official of the Pittsburgh Branch, he manages relationships with key stakeholders in the area, and is responsible for monitoring the region’s economic environment.

Mr. Venkatu joined the Cleveland Reserve Bank in 1998 as a research analyst. In his tenure with the Bank, he has held positions of increasing responsibility within the Research Department. Most recently, he held the position of economist. For the past several years, his economic research has focused on inflation and inflation expectations, housing and household finance, and factors related to regional economic growth. His research and analysis have been a resource for the public, and he has advised and informed the Bank’s president and board of directors on economic conditions and various policy issues.

Mr. Venkatu is a member of the Ohio Governor’s Council of Economic Advisors. He is also serves on boards that oversee the Economic Club of Pittsburgh and EconomicsPennsylvania. He received undergraduate and graduate degrees in economics from Miami University in Oxford, Ohio.

  • Fed Publications
Title Date Publication Author(s) Type

 

2014, Quarter 1 ; Metro Mix
Abstract: The Pittsburgh metro looks strong overall, though employment growth stalled in early 2012 after 30 months of strong recovery. This weakness was broad based, with most major industry segments experiencing slower employment growth than their national counterparts. Pittsburgh’s housing market and population are both stable, and average wage, GDP per capita, and income have all been rising steadily. From 2001 to 2012, Pittsburgh’s per capita income grew about twice the rate of the nation. The area’s unemployment rate declined 1 percentage point in 2013, but much of it was due to a decline in the local labor force.

top

 

2013-05 ; Brent Meyer; Saeed Zaman; Economic Commentary
Abstract: The Median CPI is well-known as an accurate predictor of future inflation. But it's just one of many possible trimmed-mean inflation measures. Recent research compares these types of measures to see which tracks future inflation best. Not only does the Median CPI outperform other trims in predicting CPI inflation, it also does a better job of predicting PCE inflation, the FOMC's preferred measure, than the core PCE.

top

 

2012-14 ; Mark E Schweitzer; Economic Commentary
Abstract: Many adjustable rate mortgages in the United States are indexed to Libor. While the accuracy of this rate has recently been called into question, another issue affecting U.S. borrowers has become evident since the onset of the financial crisis. Specifically, many U.S. consumers with Libor-based loans may have been hit with substantially higher payments when their loans reset during the financial crisis than if those loans had been tied to a Treasury rate. We investigate several alternative reference rates for consumer loans and estimate their payment effects on a large sample of Libor-linked U.S. mortgages. We find that these alternatives would have delivered savings over Libor of about $25 to $45 per month and substantially more for mortgages that reset in October 2008.

top

 

September, 2012 Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, working paper no. 12-17 ; Brent Meyer; Working Papers
Abstract: This paper reinvestigates the performance of trimmed-mean inflation measures some 20 years since their inception, asking whether there is a particular trimmed-mean measure that dominates the median CPI. Unlike previous research, we evaluate the performance of symmetric and asymmetric trimmed-means using a well-known equality of prediction test. We find that there is a large swath of trimmed-means that have statistically indistinguishable performance. Also, while the swath of statistically similar trims changes slightly over different sample periods, it always includes the median CPI—an extreme trim that holds conceptual and computational advantages. We conclude with a simple forecasting exercise that highlights the advantage of the median CPI (and trimmed-mean estimators in general) relative to other standard measures in forecasting headline inflation.

top

 

2012-06 ; Timothy Dunne; Economic Commentary
Abstract: A region’s economic performance is closely linked to the skills and knowledge of its workforce. Using college attainment as a measure of workforce skills, we examine overall trends in higher education to get a sense of where Ohio stands relative to other states. The data reveal that Ohio has made some progress, especially in improving educational attainment in its younger workers. At the same time, Ohio lags in a number of other dimensions, in particular, in its overall level of college attainment and in attracting educated workers into the state.

top

 

2011-07 ; Brent Meyer; Economic Commentary
Abstract: It has often been reported that different demographic groups show persistent differences in their inflation expectations. Some reasonable explanations have been suggested, but most have failed to fully explain these apparent differences. We argue that the demographic differences have been overstated by using the mean to describe differences across demographic groups. When we use the median to describe inflation expectations, we find little meaningful difference across demographic groups.

top

 

2010-14 ; Economic Commentary
Abstract: Nearly one homeowner in ten is more than 90 days delinquent on his mortgage payment. Most of the homes under these mortgages are likely to be repossessed by lenders and resold, which has led some to call them a shadow inventory. How much these homes will affect the broader housing market depends on when they actually become available for sale and how long they remain on the market. Some analysts are concerned that a surge in the availability of repossessed or real-estate owned (REO) properties, or a persistently high level of them, could put downward pressure on prices. This could, in turn, induce additional foreclosures. This Commentary presents three possible scenarios for future REO inventory levels.

top

 

April 2009 ; Timothy Dunne; Economic Commentary
Abstract: As the foreclosure crisis deepens, increased attention is being paid to foreclosure statistics, which are often used to judge the intensity of foreclosure problems both within and across regions. However, these statistics need to be interpreted carefully; different foreclosure statistics embed different information, and making informative comparisons with various metrics requires understanding how each is constructed.

top

 

January 2009 ; Mark E Schweitzer; Economic Commentary
Abstract: Adjustable-rate mortgages have typically been tied to either of two indexes, one based on U.S. treasuries, the other on the London interbank offered rate, or Libor. The index is used to determine a mortgage’s new interest rate when it is reset, and up until recently, the choice would have made little difference. But since 2007, the rates on which the indexes are based have diverged sharply, and borrowers with Libor-based adjustable-rate mortgages are likely to pay more than they would have had their mortgages been tied to treasuries. Moreover, the proportion of Libor-based ARMs has increased significantly, especially for subprime loans.

top

 

February 1, 2006 Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Commentary ; Economic Commentary
Abstract: Cleveland’s employment growth has lagged the nation’s for nearly 15 years, a fact that is often blamed on the kinds of industries that are here—either the area is burdened with too much manufacturing, or it has failed to attract enough high-tech industries. But an analysis shows little support for that view.

top

 

May 15, 2004 Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Commentary ; Mark E Schweitzer; Economic Commentary
Abstract: Two government surveys are used to gather information about employment in the U.S. economy, but the employment levels calculated from each seem to provide conflicting pictures of the labor market. The surveys are very different, but when the differences are taken into account and the survey results are compared with their respective business-cycle patterns, the conflict disappears.

top

 

November 2001 Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Commentary ; Michael F Bryan; Economic Commentary
Abstract: That men and women occasionally see things differently is not a remarkable observation. But that the sexes could report vastly different perspectives on the rate at which prices are rising over a long period of time is astonishing. This Commentary describes the difference in inflation sentiment held by men and women—a puzzle that may hold the key to interpreting survey-based data on household inflation expectations.

top

 

October 15, 2001 Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Commentary ; Michael F Bryan; Economic Commentary
Abstract: In this Commentary, we document that people report very different perceptions and predictions of inflation depending upon their income, education, age, race, and gender—a strange finding that may provide an important clue to understanding how to interpret survey data of inflation expectations.

top