Data Updates

Data Updates

August 2013

  • 08.30.2013
  • PCE Prices
  • The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index increased at an annualized rate of 1.1 percent in July, following an increase of 5.0 percent in June and a 1.2 percent increase in May. Over the past twelve months, the PCE price index has increased 1.4 percent. The price index for energy goods and services—a volatile component of the headline PCE price index—was a bit more moderate in July compared with June, increasing 3.5 percent. In June, prices for energy goods and services jumped 50.0 percent at an annualized rate, contributing to the large increase in the PCE price index. The core PCE price index, which excludes food and energy prices, increased 0.9 percent in July and over the past twelve months, has increased 1.2 percent. The year-over-year changes in the core PCE price index have been hovering around 1.2 percent since April. The market-based core PCE price index, which excludes most imputed prices, increased 1.3 percent in July, following increases of 1.4 and 2.6 percent in May and June, respectively, and has increased 1.2 percent since July of last year.
  • 08.30.2013
  • Personal Income
  • Nominal personal income increased at a nonannualized rate of 0.1 percent in July, which follows increases of 0.3 percent in both May and June, respectively. Since last July, nominal personal income has increased 3.3 percent. Disposable personal income (DPI)—nominal personal income less current personal taxes—increased 0.2 percent during the month and has increased 2.2 percent over the past year. After controlling for price changes, real disposable personal income increased 0.1 percent in July, following 0.2 percent decline in June. The July improvement in real DPI is similar to the average increases during the second quarter of this year, and on a year-over-year basis, inflation-adjusted disposable income has increased 0.8 percent.

    Real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) also increased 0.1 percent in July, following a 0.2 percent increase in June. The slight July improvement was driven by goods consumption, which increased 0.4 percent, while services consumption declined 0.1 percent. Within goods consumption, consumption of durable goods increased 0.1 percent and consumption of nondurable goods increased 0.5 percent. Over the past year, real PCE has increased 1.7 percent. The similar improvements in both income and consumption caused the personal savings rate, which is measured as personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income, to remain steady at 4.4 percent.

  • 08.30.2013
  • Consumer Sentiment
  • Final numbers show that The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment has risen to 82.1 from the preliminary number of 80.0 posted earlier in August. Revisions to the Index of Consumer Expectations and Current Economic Conditions contributed to the intramonth gain with a revision of 73.7 from 72.9 and 95.2 from 91.0, respectively.

    As for inflation expectation revisions, consumers now expect a year-ahead inflation rate of 3.0 percent, down from 3.1 percent, and a longer-term (5- to 10-year) rate of 2.9 percent, up from 2.8 percent.

  • 08.29.2013
  • GDP
  • The annualized percent change in real GDP for the second quarter of 2013 was revised up from 1.7 to 2.5 percent. Primarily contributing to the upward revision were positive revisions to net exports and inventories. On a year-over-year basis, real GDP has increased 1.6 percent.

    The contribution of changes in private inventories to GDP growth was revised up from 0.4 to 0.6 percent, and the contribution of net exports was revised up from −0.8 to 0.0 percent. Exports are now estimated to have increased 8.6 percent during the quarter, compared with a prior estimated increase of 5.4 percent, while imports are estimated to have increased just 7.0 percent, compared with a prior estimated increase of 9.4 percent.

    Personal consumption expenditures were essentially unrevised, increasing 1.8 percent and contributing 1.2 percentage points to GDP growth. The increases in both residential and business fixed investment were revised down slightly. Residential investment increased 12.9 percent and business fixed investment increased 4.4 percent, which compares with prior estimates of 13.4 and 4.6 percent, respectively. Overall, private fixed investment contributed 0.9 percentage points to GDP growth in the second quarter. Government spending was revised down from a 0.4 percent decline to a 0.9 percent decline, which subtracted an additional 0.1 percentage points from second quarter growth.

  • 08.27.2013
  • Home Price Indexes
  • All three S&P Case-Shiller housing price indexes continued to increase in June. The national index was up 7.1 percent in the second quarter of this year and 10.1 percent over the past four-quarters. Both the 10- and 20-city composites rose 2.2 percent for the month, and 11.9 percent and 12.1 percent, respectively since last June. All 20 cities posted gains on a monthly and annual basis with Dallas and Denver reaching new all-time highs. However, in only six cities were home prices rising fast in June compared to May. Overall home prices are back to spring 2004 levels.

    The FHFA national housing price index rose 2.1 percent in the second quarter of 2013 and is up 7.2 percent compared to the second quarter of 2012. As for states within the District, four-quarter price changes ranged from a 1.9 percent increase in Kentucky to a 3.7 percent increase in Pennsylvania. Looking at purchase-only indexes for the 100 most populated metropolitan areas within the U.S., the Orlando, FL metro area reported the greatest price increases (up 10.0 percent in the second quarter) while prices were weakest in the Akron, OH area (down 3.9 percent). The expanded-data housing price index (which adds transaction information from county recorder offices) rose 2.4 percent in the second quarter of this year and is up 7.5 percent since this time last year. The overall monthly index for June was up 0.7 percent from May and 7.7 percent since June 2012. The monthly index is now back to early 2005 price levels.

  • 08.26.2013
  • Durable Goods
  • New orders for durable goods fell 7.3 percent in July. Over the past year, new orders are down 0.3 percent. New orders for transportation equipment declined 19.4 percent following an increase of 11.7 percent in June. New orders excluding transportation equipment were down 0.6 percent following increases of 0.1 and 1.3 percent in June and May, respectively. Orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft, which is used to evaluate the near-term outlook in equipment and software investment, fell 3.3 percent in July. Shipments of durable goods, which are up 2.1 percent over the past year, were down 0.3 percent in July. Perhaps more disconcerting is that shipments of nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft, which map directly into GDP, declined 1.5 percent in July. This decrease followed a decline of 0.8 percent in June. On a year-over-year basis, shipments of nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft are up 0.8 percent.
  • 08.23.2013
  • New Home Sales
  • New single-family home sales dropped 13.4 percent from June to July, but are up 6.8 percent over the past 12 months to a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of 394,000 units sold. This is the lowest level of new single-family home sales since October 2012. Regionally, all areas posted sharp monthly declines ranging from a 5.7 percent decline in the Northeast to a 16.1 percent decline in the West. Annually, new home sales varied widely, from a 7.8 percent decline in the West to a 16.4 increase in the South. The median sales price of new single-family homes was $257,200, down 0.5 percent for the month, but remains up 8.3 percent from July 2012. The inventory of new single-family homes rose to 171,000, which represents a 5.2 months’ supply at the current sales pace.
  • 08.21.2013
  • Existing Home Sales
  • Existing single-family home sales rose to the highest level in nearly four years in July, increasing 6.3 percent for the month and 16.4 percent over the past 12 months to a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of 4.76 million units sold. Regionally, all areas showed positive monthly growth ranging from a 4.5 percent increase in the South to an 11.5 percent increase in the Northeast. Annually, all areas posted strong double-digit growth rates led by the Midwest, up 20.0 percent. The price of existing single-family homes ticked down for the month, falling 0.27 percent, but remains up 13.5 percent annually. Meanwhile, the available inventory of existing homes rose 3.6 percent for the month to an annualized rate of 2 million units which represents a 5.0 month supply at the current sales pace.
  • 08.16.2013
  • Housing Starts
  • The groundbreaking of new single-family homes fell 2.2 percent in July, but has risen 15.4 percent since July 2012 to a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of 591,000 units started. Regionally, monthly housing starts ranged from a 9.8 percent decline in the West to a 12.0 percent increase in the Northeast. On a year-over-year basis, all areas showed strong positive growth. The issuance of single-family home building permits slipped 1.9 percent in July, but has risen 17.9 percent over the past 12 months to a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of 613,000 permits. The monthly change in the authorization of building permits ranged from a 6.4 percent decline in the West to a 2.9 percent increase in the Midwest. Meanwhile, annual growth rates posted increases of 12.0 percent increase or better in all regions.
  • 08.16.2013
  • Productivity and Costs
  • Nonfarm business sector productivity—real output per hour of all persons—increased at an annualized rate of 0.9 percent in the second quarter of 2013, according to the preliminary estimate. This follows 1.7 percent declines in each of the two previous quarters. The increase during the second quarter was primarily caused by a 2.6 percent increase in output, while hours increased just 1.7 percent. On a year-over-year basis, nonfarm business sector productivity was flat in the second quarter. Compensation per hour increased 4.0 percent during the second quarter after a 4.5 percent decline in the first. After controlling for price changes, real compensation per hour increased 2.3 percent during the quarter and on a year-over-year basis, is up just 0.1 percent. Unit labor costs, which are measured as hourly compensation per hourly output, increased 1.4 percent in the second quarter after an 11.8 percent increase in the fourth quarter of last year and a 4.2 percent decline in the first quarter of this year. Over the past four quarters, unit labor costs are up 1.6 percent.
  • 08.15.2013
  • Consumer Price Index
  • The CPI rose a modest 0.2 percent (1.9 percent annual rate) in July. Unlike in June, energy prices were much more subdued in July. While gasoline prices rose, this increase was partially offset by declines in the indexes for natural gas and electricity. Overall, the energy index rose 2.8 percent in July and 4.8 percent over the past twelve months. The latter is the largest year-over-year increase in the energy index since February 2012, but the average annual increase in the index over the last decade was 6.3 percent.

    Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland-based measures of underlying inflation increased at about the same pace in July?0.2 percent (2.0 percent annual rate) for the median CPI and 0.1 percent (1.7 percent annual rate) for the trimmed-mean CPI. On a year-over-year basis, these three measures of underlying inflation continue to show considerable stability. The twelve-month change in the median CPI has been 2.1 percent since March, while the core CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI have fluctuated in a band of 0.2 percentage points since then. Over the past twelve months through July, the core CPI rose 1.7 percent and the trimmed-mean CPI rose 1.8 percent. The year-over-year change in the all-items index has drifted up from 1.1 percent in April to 2.0 percent in July.

    With respect to the distribution of price changes, about 40 percent of price changes (on a weighted basis) fell between 1 and 3 percent, with about the same proportion of prices rising at rates below 1 percent.

  • 08.15.2013
  • Industrial Production
  • Industrial production was unchanged (nonannualized) in July, following an increase of 0.2 percent in June. The near-term trend (three-month annualized growth) of 1.1percent is down from 4.0 percent in the first quarter. On a year-over-year basis, overall production is up 1.3 percent (its lowest level since the recession). Manufacturing production fell 0.1 percent in July while the three-month annualized growth rate increased 1.3 percent, down from 4.9 percent in the first quarter. Breaking down the manufacturing sector, durable and nondurable goods declined 0.2 percent and 0.1 percent, respectively. Within durable goods manufacturing, 8 of the 11 subsectors posted no change or declined for the month; Primary metals posted the only noteworthy growth, increasing 2.6 percent. Mining output rose 2.0 percent, after having increased 1.0 percent in June. Overall capacity utilization fell 0.1 percentage points to 77.6 percent of capacity, still 2.6 percentage points below its historic average.
  • 08.14.2013
  • Producer Price Index
  • The Producer Price Index (PPI), was unchanged in July after advancing strongly in May (0.5 percent) and June (0.8 percent). On a year-over-year basis, the PPI was up 2.1 percent in July. Producer prices for finished consumer foods in July rose 0.5 percent, the smallest increase seen since April. Energy prices declined 2.5 percent in July, compared to an increase of 40.8 percent in June. Year-over-year energy prices are still up 4.0 percent. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, “core” PPI rose 0.7 percent in July, down from the 2.0 percent increase in June. At earlier stages of production, core intermediate good prices and core crude prices both decreased 3.1 percent.
  • 08.13.2013
  • Retail Sales
  • Total retail sales increased at a nonannualized rate of 0.2 percent in July. Year-over-year retail sales are up 5.4 percent. Auto sales decreased 1.1 percent in July. Over the past 12 months, retail sales excluding autos have increased 0.5 percent. Contributing to the monthly gain in total sales were improvements for sporting goods and hobbies (up 1.0 percent), clothing and accessories (up 0.9 percent), and gasoline stations (up 0.9 percent). Sectors with the largest declines in July were furniture and home furnishing stores (down 1.4 percent), motor vehicle and parts (down 1.0 percent), and building materials (down 0.4 percent). A less-volatile indicator of sales growth, “core” retail sales (which excludes sales of autos, building supplies, and gas stations) increased 0.5 percent in July following an increase of 0.3 percent in June. On a year-over-year basis, “core” retail sales are up 3.3 percent.
  • 08.13.2013
  • Import and Export Prices
  • Import prices increased 0.2 percent in July after declining for the previous four months. Petroleum prices drove the increase, rising 3.2 percent, while nonpetroleum prices fell −0.5 percent compared to June. July represents the largest monthly decrease in nonpetroleum import prices since March 2009. On a year-over-year basis, import prices increase 1.0 percent after inching up 0.1 percent on a yearly basis in June. Petroleum prices jumped 7.8 percent on a yearly basis after averaging a −4.8 percent decline in the second quarter. Nonpetroleum prices fell −0.7 percent year-over-year after falling −0.4 percent, on average, in the second quarter. As in June’s report, nonpetroleum import prices remain subdued while petroleum prices add strength to the headline number.

    Export prices fell −0.1 percent in July, marking five months of consecutive declines. On a year-over-year basis, export prices increased 0.4 percent after rising 0.8 percent in June and falling −0.8 percent in May.

  • 08.07.2013
  • Consumer Credit
  • Consumer credit rose at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 5.9 percent. The change in June was slightly below expectations and equivalent to the second-quarter average of 5.9 percent. June’s consumer credit growth fell in the between that of April (4.2 percent) and May (7.5 percent). Revolving credit growth reversed from an annualized percentage change of 9.5 percent in May to −3.7 percent in June. Nonrevolving credit growth increased from 7.0 to 10.5 percent from May to June, rising $16.5 billion after an increase of $11.1 billion in the previous month.
  • 08.06.2013
  • International Trade
  • In June, the US trade deficit contracted $9.9 billion to a level of −$34.2 after expanding $4.0 billion the month prior. Coming in lower than the consensus forecast of -$43.5 billion, June’s −$34.2 billion level is the lowest the trade deficit has measured since October 2009. The contraction in the trade deficit was driven by a 2.2 percent increase in exports and a −2.5 percent drop in imports. June marks the first month since March that export activity grew faster than import activity on a monthly basis. On a year-over-year basis, imports fell 1.0 percent after expanding 0.3 percent in May and contracting 1.4 percent in April. At 3.2 percent, exports continued to post year-over-year gains in June after expanding 1.5 percent in May and 1.8 percent in April.
  • 08.02.2013
  • The Employment Situation
  • Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 162,000 in July, coming in slightly below consensus estimates. On the household side of the report, the unemployment rate fell to a new cyclical low of 7.4 percent, as labor force participation edged down 0.1 percent to 63.4 percent and the total number of person employed ticked up 0.2 percent.

    As for the establishment side of the report, downward revisions to both May and June employment growth estimates combine for a total of 26,000 less jobs than previously reported. Over the past 12 months, employment growth has averaged about 187,000 jobs per month and 192,000 in the first half of the this year. The largest gains continue to come from a broad array of service-providing industries, such as retail trade (up 47,000) and food services and drinking places (up 38,000). The largest decline in employment came from construction, down 6,000 and nondurable goods, down 2,000. Notably, government employment had a modest uptick of 1,000, which is the first positive month since April. Elsewhere, the average workweek for all employees fell 0.1 percent to 34.4 hours and 0.2 hours to 40.6 hours for manufacturers. The average hourly earnings for all employees declined 2 cents to $23.98, following a 10-cent increase in June.

  • 08.02.2013
  • Personal Income
  • Nominal personal income increased at a nonannualized rate of 0.3 percent in June. This follows an increase of 0. 4 percent in May and over the past year, nominal personal income has increased 3.1 percent. Disposable personal income (DPI)—nominal personal income less current personal taxes—also increased 0.3 percent in June and is up 1.9 percent over the past twelve months. After controlling for price changes, real DPI decreased 0.1 percent in June, following increases of 0.2 percent in both April and May. On a year-over-year basis, real DPI has increased 0.6 percent.

    Following increases of 0. 1 percent in both April and May, real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) also increased 0.1 percent in June. Since last year, consumption has increased 2.0 percent. The increase in real PCE over the past two months has primarily come from goods consumption, which has increased 0.6 and 0.4 percent in May and June, respectively. A large contributor to the increases in goods consumption recently has been the strength of the consumption of durable goods, which averaged monthly growth rates of 0.7 percent during the second quarter. Goods consumption has increased 4.2 percent over the past year, while consumption of services, which was flat in June, has increased just 0.9 percent on a year-over-year basis. Additionally, the personal savings rate ticked down 0.2 percentage points to 4.4 percent.

  • 08.02.2013
  • PCE Price Index
  • The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index increased at an annualized rate of 4.9 percent in June, following a 3.0 percent decrease in April and a 1.2 percent increase in May. On a year-over-year basis, the PCE price index has increased 1.3 percent. The price of energy goods and services played a role in pushing up the headline index during June, as energy prices jumped 50.7 percent during the month. The core PCE price index, which excludes food and energy prices, increased 2.6 percent in June, following a decrease of 0.2 percent in April and an increase of 1.4 percent in May. Since June of last year, core PCE prices have increased 1.2 percent. The market-based core PCE price index, which also excludes most imputed prices, increased 2.6 percent in June, following an increase of 1.4 percent in May, and is up 1.1 percent over the past twelve months.
  • 08.02.2013
  • Factory Orders
  • New orders for manufactured goods increased 1.6 percent (nonannualized) in June, following an increase of 3.0 percent in May. Year-over-year growth rates for new orders have jumped to 6.8 percent (from 0.8 percent in April). Excluding transportation, new orders fell 0.4 percent for the month while new orders of durable goods rose 3.9 percent and nondurable goods fell 0.6 percent. Nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders, considered a leading indicator of business investment spending, increased 0.9 percent in June. Shipments decreased 0.4 percent for the month while unfilled orders and inventories of manufactured goods also rose 2.1 percent and 0.1 percent, respectively. The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio now rests at 6.28, roughly where it has been since late 2009 but still well above the pre-crisis average of 4.3. The inventory-to-shipments ratio remains at 1.30, also roughly where it has been since late 2009.
  • 08.01.2013
  • ISM Manufacturing
  • The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) increased 4.5 percentage points to 55.4 from 50.9 in the month of July. The PMI is at its highest level since June of 2011 and for the sixth month in 2013, sits above the growth threshold of 50. Four of the five components that constitute the PMI have increased since June. Furthermore, four out of the five components were above the growth threshold of 50 with inventories being the exception at 47.0 percent, a decrease of 3.5 percentage points from its previous month’s reading of 50.5 percent. For the second consecutive month, production saw the largest increase of 11.6 percentage points to 65.0 percent, its highest reading since May of 2004. New orders increased 6.4 percentage points to 58.3 percent, supplier deliveries increased 2.1 percentage points to 52.1 percent, and employment increased 5.7 percentage points to 54.4 percent from June to July. The ISM Prices Index decreased by 3.5 percentage points to 49.0 percent. Prices have decreased by 12.5 percentage points since February 2013’s high of 61.5 percent.
  • 08.01.2013
  • Construction Spending
  • Private construction spending rose in June to $622.8 billion, 0.4 percent below the revised May estimate of $625.4 billion. June’s results are 9.7 percent higher than a year ago. Residential construction spending rose $332.1 billion in June, nearly the same as the revised May estimate of $332.2 billion. New multifamily construction spending fell 3.3 percent and is up 40.6 percent year-over-year. New single-family construction posted a monthly decline of 0.8 percent and is up 28.2 percent since last June. Private nonresidential construction spending was at $290.7 billion, 0.9 percent below the revised May estimate of $291.3 billion.