Data Updates

Data Updates

June 2013

  • 06.28.2013
  • Consumer Sentiment
  • Final numbers show that the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment has risen to 84.1 from the preliminary 82.7 posted earlier in June. Both of the components— Current Economic Conditions and the Index of Consumer Expectations—contributed to the intramonth gain. June’s final reading was revised up from the preliminary report, but has edged down 0.4 from the five-year high of 84.5 in May.

    As for inflation expectation revisions, consumers now expect a year-ahead inflation rate of 3.0 percent down from 3.2 percent, and a longer-term (five- to ten-year) rate of 2.9 percent down from 3.0 percent.

  • 06.27.2013
  • PCE Price Index
  • The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index increased at an annualized rate of 1.0 percent in May, following declines in both March and April. On a year-over-year basis, the headline PCE price index is up 1.0 percent. Food and energy components had less of an impact on the headline index than they have had in previous months. The prices for energy goods and services increased 2.0 percent in May, while food prices decreased 3.0 percent. The core PCE price index, which excludes food and energy prices, increased 1.3 percent in for the month. This follows increases of 0.6 percent in March and 0.1 percent in April, while the 12-month percent change in the core PCE price index, which has been declining since late last year, was flat at 1.1 percent. The market-based core PCE price index, which also excludes most imputed prices, increased 1.3 percent in May following a 0.9 percent decline in April and is up 1.1 percent over the past 12 months.
  • 06.27.2013
  • Personal Income
  • Nominal personal income increased at a nonannualized rate of 0.5 percent in May, following increases of 0.3 percent in March and 0.1 percent in April. Over the past 12 months, nominal personal income has increased 3.3 percent. Disposable personal income (DPI)?nominal personal income less current personal taxes?also increased 0.5 percent for the month and is up 2.2 percent since May of last year. After controlling for price changes, real disposable personal income increased 0.4 percent in May, following increases of 0.3 percent in each of the prior two months, and is up 1.2 percent on a year-over-year basis.

    Real personal consumption expenditures increased 0.2 percent in May, which follows a slight 0.1 percent decline in April. The improvement in overall consumption in May came entirely from consumption of goods. Consumption of durable and nondurable goods increased 1.0 and 0.5 percent, respectively, while services consumption decreased 0.1 percent. Since last year, overall consumption is up 1.8 percent, and the 12-month change in consumption has consistently been between 1.5 and 2.0 percent since the end of 2011. The larger improvement in personal income relative to consumption in May caused the personal savings rate to increase to 3.2 percent.

  • 06.26.2013
  • ISM Manufacturing
  • The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) decreased 1.7 percentage points to 49.0 in the month of May, indicating a general contraction in the manufacturing sector as it is below the growth threshold of 50. This is the second time it has dipped below 50 since July 2009 (the other being November 2012). Four out of the five components that constitute the PMI decreased, with inventories being the exception. Furthermore, four out of the five components were below the growth threshold of 50, with employment barely registering above at 50.1 percent. Production saw the largest decrease of 4.9 percentage points to 48.6 percent, new orders decreased 3.5 percentage points to 48.8 percent, supplier deliveries decreased 2.2 percentage points to 48.7 percent, and employment decreased 0.1 percentage points to 50.1 percent from April to May. Inventories increased 2.5 percentage points to 49.0 percent. The ISM Prices Index decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 49.5 percent. Prices have decreased by 12 percentage points since February 2013’s reading of 61.5 percent.
  • 06.25.2013
  • Durable Goods
  • New orders for durable goods rose 3.6 percent in May. Over the past year, new orders are up 7.6 percent. New orders for transportation equipment increased 10.2 percent following an increase of 8.3 percent in April. Excluding transportation equipment, new orders increased 0.7 percent in May, following an increase of 1.7 percent and a decline of 1.6 percent in April and March, respectively. Orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft—which is used to evaluate the near-term outlook in equipment and software investment—increased 1.1 percent in May. Shipments of durable goods, which are up 2.4 percent over the past year, rose 1.3 percent in May. Perhaps more encouraging is that shipments of nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft, which map directly into GDP, increased 1.7 percent in May. This increase followed a decline of 2.1 percent in April. On a year-over-year basis, shipments of nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft are up 1.6 percent.
  • 06.25.2013
  • Home Price Indexes
  • The S&P Case-Shiller 10- and 20-city housing price indexes rose a seasonally-adjusted 1.8 percent and 1.7 percent, respectively from March to April. Over the past 12 months the 10-city composite is up 11.6 percent and the 20-city composite is up 12.1 percent. This is the fourth consecutive month that both composites and all 20 cities have seen positive annual growth rates. Improvements to the housing market appear to be broad-based and gaining traction as several cities continue post-record gains each month.

    The FHFA housing price index rose 0.7 percent in April, which is the fifteenth consecutive month of positive price growth. Since April 2012, the index has risen 7.4 percent and all areas showed solid improvement, ranging from a 2.9 percent increase in the Middle Atlantic to a 17.1 percent increase in the Pacific. Overall, homes sales with mortgages from either Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac are back to early 2005 levels.

  • 06.25.2013
  • New Home Sales
  • New single-family home sales rose 2.1 percent in May and 29.0 percent over the past 12 months to a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of 466,000 units sold. Regionally, sales varied widely from a 9.0 percent decline in the South to a 40.7 percent increase in the Midwest. The median sales price of new homes was $263,900, which is a 3.2 percent decline for the month, but a 10.3 percent annual increase. The inventory of new homes for sale in May was 161,00, representing a 4.1 months’ supply at the current sales pace, which is a 12.8 percent decline since this time last year.
  • 06.20.2013
  • Existing Home Sales
  • Existing single-family home sales rose by 5.0 percent from April to May and 12.7 percent over the past 12 months to a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of 4.6 million units sold. This represents the highest level of sales since November 2009. All areas posted solid monthly and annual improvement with the South and Midwest leading those gains. The median sales price of existing single-family homes rose to $208,700, which is the highest level since July 2008. The inventory rose 3.7 percent to 1.98 million units, while monthly supply of homes was flat for month at a 5.2 month supply given the current pace of sales.
  • 06.18.2013
  • Housing Starts
  • The groundbreaking of single-family homes rose just 0.3 percent in May and 16.3 percent annually to a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of 599,000 units started. Regionally, the monthly pace of housing starts ranged from a 20.3 percent decline in the West to a 12.2 percent increase in the South. On a year-over-year basis all areas posted positive growth rates, with the West showing the weakest improvement of 6.8 percent and the South leading with a gain of 19.5 percent. The authorization of single-family home building permits rose 1.3 percent from April to May and 24.6 percent over the past 12 months to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 622,000 permits issued.
  • 06.18.2013
  • CPI
  • Following two monthly declines driven largely by changes in energy prices, the CPI rose modestly in May by 0.1 percent. Energy prices in this report rose modestly as well, in contrast to the much more volatile swings of previous months in 2013. While gasoline prices were unchanged, increases in the indexes for electricity and natural gas accounted for the overall increase in the energy index. With less volatility in the energy index, the large weight on the CPI’s shelter component meant that its change dominated the move in the all-items index. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, more than half of the increase in the CPI in May was attributable to the shelter index, which rose 0.3 percent.

    Regarding changes in other CPI-based measures in May, the core CPI rose 0.2 percent, the Median CPI rose 0.2 percent, and the 16 percent trimmed-mean rose 0.1 percent during the month. On a year-over-year basis, the CPI rose 1.4 percent through May, up slightly from the 1.1 percent reading in April. Other year-over-year readings were stable. The core CPI rose 1.7 percent and the median CPI rose 2.1 percent on a year-over-year basis, both unchanged from April, while the 16 percent trimmed-mean rose 1.7 percent year-over-year, up from 1.6 percent in the previous month.

  • 06.14.2013
  • Producer Price Index
  • The Producer Price Index rose at an annualized rate of 5.7 percent in May, the first increase in two months. On a year-over-year basis the PPI is up 1.8 percent. Producer prices for finished consumer foods in May rose 8.0 percent following a decrease of 9.5 percent in April. Energy prices increased sharply to 16.8 percent in May following a large decrease of 26.5 percent in April. Year-over-year energy prices are up a slight 0.9 percent. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, “core” PPI rose 0.7 percent in May, the smallest increase observed all year. At earlier stages of production, core intermediate good prices decreased 4.2 percent and core crude prices decreased 24.6 percent in May.
  • 06.14.2013
  • Industrial Production
  • Industrial production rose 0.1 percent (nonannualized) in May, following a decrease of 0.5 percent in April. The near-term trend (three-month annualized percent change) has slowed to −0.8 percent from 5.9 in January. On a year-over-year basis, overall production is up 1.7 percent. Manufacturing production also rose, increasing 0.1 percent for the month while the year-over-year growth rate rests at 1.7 percent. Breaking down the manufacturing sector, durable goods and nondurable goods production increased 0.2 percent and 0.1 percent, respectively in May. Within durable goods manufacturing, computers and electronic products and wood products posted the largest gains, both increasing 1.1 percent. Elsewhere within durable goods production, primary metals along with furniture and related products each declined 1.0 percent. Overall capacity utilization fell 0.1 percentage points to 77.6 percent of capacity which is roughly where it has been since January 2012. Current readings are now 2.6 percentage points below its long run average.
  • 06.14.2013
  • Current Account
  • In the first quarter of 2013, the U.S. current account deficit expanded to −$106.1 billion, a $3.8 billion increase from the fourth quarter of 2012’s revised $102.3 deficit (-$110.4 billion, previously). In the current release, the Bureau of Economic Analysis revised data going back to 1999, resulting in a slightly smaller deficit for 2012. The first quarter’s expansion in the current account deficit comes after three quarters of contractions. As a percent of GDP, the current account increased slightly to 2.7 percent (from 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012). Exports of goods, services, and income fell −0.2 percent on a quarterly basis while imports remained flat. The decrease in exports drove the overall expansion of the deficit.
  • 06.14.2013
  • Consumer Sentiment
  • Preliminary numbers show that the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment fell to 82.7 in early June from 84.5 in May. Survey respondents viewed current economic conditions as worse than last month, dropping 5.9 percentage points. This is the largest monthly drop in present conditions since August 2011. Among the top third of the income distribution, the sentiment index rose to 96.1 in June from 94.1 in May, the highest level recorded during this recovery. The majority of the index pullback was among lower income households. Consumers were still slightly more optimistic about future economic outlook, which rose 0.9 percentage points. When asked about prospects for the national economy during the year ahead, consumers are more optimistic than any other time since mid-2007. Unemployment expectations were mixed with fewer consumers expecting either increases or declines during the year ahead for unemployment. Finally, buying attitudes toward household durables declined among lower income households, while vehicle buying attitudes declined among upper income households. Even with these attitude declines, the survey points to the current attitudes being more favorable than any time in the past year.

    As for inflation expectations in early June, consumers expect a year-ahead inflation rate of 3.2 percent and a longer-term (five- to ten-year) rate of 3.0 percent.

  • 06.13.2013
  • Retail Sales
  • Total retail sales increased at a nonannualized rate of 0.6 percent in May, slightly higher than the 0.1 percent increase observed in April. On a yearly basis, retail sales are up 4.3 percent. Auto sales increase 1.8 percent, making May the second consecutive month of gains. Excluding autos, retail sales increased 0.3 percent in May and over the past 12 months, retail sales excluding autos have increased 3.2 percent. Contributing to the monthly gain in total sales were improvements for motor vehicles and parts (up 1.8 percent), building materials (up 0.9 percent), and nonstore retailers (up 0.7 percent). Sectors that saw the largest declines in May were furniture and home furnishing stores (down 0.8 percent), electronics and appliances (down 0.4 percent), and food service and drinking places (down 0.4 percent). A less volatile indicator of sales growth, “core” retail sales (which excludes sales of autos, building supplies, and gas stations) increased 0.4 percent in May following an increase of 0.5 percent in April. On a year-over-year basis “core” retail sales are up 3.4 percent.
  • 06.13.2013
  • Import and Export Prices
  • Import prices decreased −0.6 percent in May, marking three months of consecutive declines. Both petroleum and nonpetroleum prices fell, with the former dropping −2.0 percent and the latter decreasing −0.3 percent. Petroleum prices have now declined for the past two months and nonpetroleum prices have fallen for the past three. On a year-over-year basis, import prices fell −1.9 percent, marking a full year of flat or falling yearly prices. Petroleum prices were down −6.2 percent compared to last year and nonpetroleum prices fell −0.5 percent. May’s report continued to display the same weakness seen in March and April. Import prices will likely remain weak due to the global economic slowdown.

    Export prices fell −0.5 percent in May marking three months of consecutive declines as well. On a year-over-year basis, export prices fell −0.9 percent after falling at the same pace in April.

  • 06.07.2013
  • Consumer Credit
  • In April, outstanding consumer credit increased at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 4.7 percent to $2,820 billion, outpacing March’s upwardly revised increase of 3.6 percent. Revolving credit rose by 1.0 percent, and nonrevolving credit, which mainly reflects student and auto loans, rose by 6.4 percent. Revisions to March’s preliminary numbers show that revolving consumer credit fell by 1.3 percent, while nonrevolving rose by 5.7 percent.
  • 06.07.2013
  • The Employment Situation
  • Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 175,000 and the unemployment rate ticked up to 7.6 percent in May, with the payroll numbers coming in slightly above the forecast of 168,000. On the household side of the report, the labor force participation rate increased slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 63.4 percent, but is still 0.2 percentage points below its January reading. The employment-to-population ratio was unchanged from April at 58.6 percent and has shown little movement over the past year. Overall this was a moderately positive report, with the unemployment rate increasing partially due to an increase in the labor participation rate as workers re-enter the labor force. Total number of employed increased by 319,000, indicating improved traction within the labor market.

    As for the establishment side of the report, revisions to both March and April have subtracted a total of 12,000 more jobs than previously estimated as March was revised up 4,000 and April revised down 16,000 to 142,000 and 149,000, respectively. Over the past 12 months, employment growth has averaged a total of 172,000 jobs per month. Professional and business services continue to show solid improvement, adding 57,000 jobs, as well as food services and drinking places up 38,000 jobs, retail trade up 28,000 jobs, and healthcare up 11,000 jobs. Government continues to lead employment declines, falling 14,000 for the month and down 45,000 over the past three months. The total private diffusion index increased 4.2 percentage points to 59.8 and remains above the growth threshold of 50. The average workweek for all employees increased by 0.1 hours to 34.5 hours, while the average hourly earnings for all employees rose by one cent to $23.89.

  • 06.05.2013
  • Factory Orders
  • New orders for manufactured goods increased 1.0 percent (nonannualized) in April, following a decrease of 4.7 percent in March. Year-over-year growth rates for new orders are up just 0.6 percent. Excluding transportation, new orders fell 0.1 percent for the month while new orders of durable goods rose 3.5 percent and nondurable goods orders declined 1.0 percent. Nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders, considered a leading indicator of business investment spending, increased 1.2 percent. Shipments declined 1.0 percent, whereas unfilled orders and inventories of manufactured goods increased 0.3 percent and 0.2 percent for the month, respectively. The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio now rests at 6.26, roughly where it has been since late 2009, but still well above the pre-crisis average of 4.3. The inventory/shipments ratio edged up to 1.31, roughly where it has been since late 2009.
  • 06.05.2013
  • Productivity and Costs
  • Nonfarm business sector productivity—real output per hour of all persons—increased at an annualized rate of 0.5 percent in the first quarter of 2013. This is a slight downward revision from the 0.7 percent increase in the preliminary estimate. The first quarter gain follows a 3.1 percent increase and a 1.7 percent decline in the third and fourth quarters of 2012, respectively, and over the past year, productivity has increased 0.9 percent. The increase in productivity during the first quarter was caused by a 2.1 percent increase in output compared with just a 1.6 percent increase in hours. Since the first quarter of 2012, output is up 2.4 percent while hours have increased 1.5 percent. There was a sharp downward revision to hourly compensation, which declined 3.8 percent (revised down from a 1.2 percent increase).

    The same sharp downward revision can be seen after controlling for price changes, as real hourly compensation fell 5.2 percent (revised down from a 0.3 percent increase). However, the decline in real hourly compensation in the first quarter follows a sharp 7.5 percent increase in the fourth quarter of last year, and over the past four quarters, compensation has increased 0.3 percent. Unit labor costs, which are measured as hourly compensation per hourly output, fell 4.3 percent in the first quarter, largely due to the downward revision to compensation. This follows a 1.9 percent decrease and an 11.8 percent increase in the third and fourth quarters of 2012, respectively, and unit labor costs have increased 1.1 percent over the past year.

  • 06.04.2013
  • International Trade
  • In April, the US trade deficit expanded $3.1 billion after contracting a revised $6.7 billion in March ($4.8 billion, previously). The expansion to a level of −$40.3 billion was slightly below the consensus forecast of −$41.0 billion. Both imports (up 2.4 percent) and exports (up 1.2 percent) increased in April after falling in March. On a year-over-year basis, imports declined 1.4 percent in April after falling 5.1 percent in March. After falling −0.7 percent last month, the first yearly decline since November 2009, exports regained strength in April and posted a 1.7 percent year-over-year increase. Overall, April’s report was stronger than March’s where both imports and exports displayed weakness. With contrasting reports in March and April, the impact of trade on second quarter GDP will likely depend upon May’s report.
  • 06.03.2013
  • Construction Spending
  • Private construction spending rose to $602.0 billion in April, a 1.0 percent increase from the upwardly revised March estimate of $595.9 billion. April’s results are 9.0 percent higher year-over-year. Residential construction spending fell 0.1 percent over the month, to $301.9 billion. New multifamily construction spending rose 3.4 percent in April and is up 48.6 percent year-over-year. New single-family construction posted a monthly gain of 1.4 percent and is up 38.6 percent since last April. Private nonresidential construction spending was at $300.1 billion, 2.2 percent above the downwardly revised March estimate of $293.7 billion. The manufacturing, office, communication, and religious sectors all registered declines over the month. The religious sector had the largest decline of 11.5 percent and is down 9.5 percent year-over-year. The power sector posted the largest monthly increase of 10.8 percent but is still down 2.8 percent year-over-year.
  • 06.03.2013
  • ISM Manufacturing
  • The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) decreased 1.7 percentage points to 49.0 in the month of May, indicating a general contraction in the manufacturing sector as it is below the growth threshold of 50. This is the second time it has dipped below 50 since July 2009 (the other being November 2012). Four out of the five components that constitute the PMI decreased, with inventories being the exception. Furthermore, four out of the five components were below the growth threshold of 50 with employment barely registering above at 50.1 percent. Production saw the largest decrease of 4.9 percentage points to 48.6 percent, new orders decreased 3.5 percentage points to 48.8 percent, supplier deliveries decreased 2.2 percentage points to 48.7 percent, and employment decreased 0.1 percentage points to 50.1 percent from April to May. Inventories increased 2.5 percentage points to 49.0 percent. The ISM Prices Index decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 49.5 percent. Prices have decreased by 12 percentage points since February 2013’s reading of 61.5 percent.