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Labor Markets

We look at current conditions in the district’s labor markets and trends affecting its workers, as well as topics related to healthy labor markets, such as workforce development and education.

Recent Articles

  • Layoffs during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Four Findings from WARN Act Data

    With economic conditions changing so rapidly during the COVID-19 pandemic, the standard layoff indicators that policymakers and analysts use are falling short. Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) Act data—a more timely indicator—reveal four findings about job loss during this pandemic. Read More  

  • Assessing Layoffs in Four Midwestern States during the Pandemic Recession

    We use WARN data to assess layoffs in four Midwestern states during the current pandemic-induced recession—Kentucky, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. The data come from the advance layoff notices filed under the Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) Act. We find that the number of workers affected by layoff announcements rose sharply in the second half of March and April, and unexpected changes in economic conditions meant that workers received little advance notice before layoff. Layoff announcements have affected workers across these four states, and workers in mining and leisure and hospitality have been affected the most. Most recently, the number of workers affected by WARN notices has almost returned to prerecession levels. Read More  

  • Estimating the Trend Unemployment Rate in the Fourth Federal Reserve District

    We estimate trend unemployment rates for Ohio, Pennsylvania, Kentucky, and West Virginia, states that span parts of the Fourth District of the Federal Reserve System. Our estimated unemployment rate trend for the District as a whole stood at 5.7 percent in 2020:Q1 compared to a 4.7 percent observed unemployment rate within the District, implying a tight labor market by historical standards. Read More  

  • Skills Are Bridges Not Gaps: A Skills-Based Approach for Transitioning Workers to Higher-Paying Occupations

    Skills-based hiring practices—those that prioritize skills necessary to succeed in a role over formal educational credentials—show potential for securing higher positions for lower-wage workers and helping employers get the workers they need. Read More  

  • Opportunity Occupations: A Way Ahead for People without a College Degree

    People with bachelor’s degrees typically earn better wages and experience higher employment rates than workers who do not. Yet, more than two-thirds of US adults currently do not have a college degree. Since 2015, the Cleveland Fed, in partnership with Atlanta and Philadelphia Feds, has been exploring these trends by identifying occupations that pay above the national annual median wage and are generally accessible to those without a four-year college degree. Read More