Estimating the Trend Unemployment Rate in the Fourth Federal Reserve District


We estimate trend unemployment rates for Ohio, Pennsylvania, Kentucky, and West Virginia, states that span parts of the Fourth District of the Federal Reserve System. Our estimated unemployment rate trend for the District as a whole stood at 5.7 percent in 2020:Q1 compared to a 4.7 percent observed unemployment rate within the District, implying a tight labor market by historical standards.

JEL Classification: E32, E24, D21, J6, R1.
Keywords: unemployment rate; trend; Federal Reserve district.


Suggested citation: Fallick, Bruce, and Murat Tasci. 2020. “Estimating the Trend Unemployment Rate in the Fourth Federal Reserve District.” Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Working Paper No. 20-19. https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-wp-202019.