The inflation expectations model is run on the day of the month that the CPI is released. The model results are released before 4 pm on that day.
The numbers we report are annualized, so 1.5 percent for the 10-year inflation expectation means that inflation is expected to average 1.5 percent per year over the next 10 years.
Column A, or the first vertical row, is the date that the model is run, so, for example, the date 12/1/2015 is the model output for the month of December 2015. The Cleveland Fed’s inflation model is based on data from different points in the month, so we call the output a monthly figure of inflation expectations.
The inflation expectation model uses: