2011 Economic Trends
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Domestic Migration and its Impact on Ohio
Americans tend to be more mobile than others in the industrialized world. Read More
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The Health of Federally-Insured Credit Unions
Credit unions are cooperatively owned depository institutions that provide financial services to their members. Read More
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Household Financial Position
In the years preceding the stock market and housing bubbles, household wealth grew faster than incomes, leading Americans to believe that they were getting richer. Read More
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Central Bank Liquidity Swaps
Two weeks ago, the Federal Reserve took action to expand the capabilities of its liquidity swap lines with other central banks. Read More
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Why Some European Countries and Not the U.S.?
These days it seems it is just a matter of time until we hear about the next euro zone country whose interest rates on sovereign debt will start soaring. Read More
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Pittsburgh’s Labor Market in the Recession and Recovery
Over the course of the recent business cycle, labor markets within the Fourth District have experienced distinctly different patterns of contraction and expansion. Read More
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Policy Innovations at the Zero Lower Bound
The late summer and early fall bore witness to two new innovations in monetary policy. Read More
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Recent Trends in Neighborhood Poverty
Recent data releases have focused attention on the increase in the share of individuals living in poverty since 2006. Read More
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Mortgage Market Struggles to Gain Footing
After a difficult first and second quarter, the U.S. mortgage market is projected to improve in the third quarter of 2011. Read More
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Inflation Takes a Breather…
Upward pressure on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) from a few component prices reversed in October, and the 12-month growth rate in the index slowed from 3.9 percent to 3.5 percent, edging down for the first time since last November. Read More
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Inflation in Developed Countries
Earlier this year we saw average consumer prices increase in the United States, largely due to increases in food and energy prices. Read More
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Emergency Unemployment Compensation and Long-term Unemployment
The recent recession was the longest on record since the Depression. Read More
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Sovereign Debt Implications on the European Banking System
As European leaders work to define the terms of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), concerns have arisen about sovereign debt write-downs. Read More
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Weak Wage and Income Growth Is Holding Consumption Back
After feeble GDP growth in the first half of the year, third-quarter data came out a little stronger, suggesting that the recovery is continuing and the risk of recession is reduced. Read More
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Recent Employment Cost Index Estimates
The Employment Cost Index (ECI) is one of the data releases we monitor to help shape our inflation outlook. Read More
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Local Government Employment in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Kentucky, and West Virginia
In the past year, policymakers in the Fourth District and across the nation have focused tremendous attention on local government employees. Read More
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Household Debt
The level of U.S. household debt relative to disposable income has been declining since the financial crisis. Read More
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The Shout with Operation Twist
Much attention has been given to the Federal Open Market Committee’s September decision to extend the average maturity of its portfolio by selling short-term Treasury securities and purchasing longer-term Treasury securities. Read More
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Market-Based Inflation Expectations Reflect No Fear of Inflation in the Medium and Long-Term
In normal times, the Federal Reserve can affect nominal and real interest rates by setting a target for the federal funds rate, an overnight rate for funds exchanged between banks. Read More
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Recent Fourth District Foreclosure Trends
Foreclosure rates among Fourth District states remain at or near historic highs. Read More
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Incomes Are Down, Poverty Is Up
According to the latest Census Bureau data, real median income dropped from about $50,600 in 2009 to about $49,500 in 2010. Read More
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The Global Slowdown and Central Banks’ Responses
After hitting a peak sometime in the middle of 2010, the economic recovery seems to have stalled. This observation seems to be true not only of the U.S. economy, but also of other developed economies and some emerging economies. Read More
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Government Support for Households Amplifies Tradeoff
The Great Recession and the subsequent weak recovery have prompted the U.S. government to take a larger role in the economy. Read More
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A Slow Recovery in the Banking Sector
As the banking sector recovers from the financial crisis and the subsequent recession, its recovery has mirrored the slow and fragile recovery of the general economy. Read More
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Interest Rates Have Responded to the Fed’s New Language
At its August policy meeting, the Federal Reserve took the unprecedented step of establishing a specific future date for policy action given current economic conditions. Read More
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Recent Changes in the Relationship between Education and Male Labor Market Outcomes
There is reason to believe that educational attainment is one of the key determinants of outcomes in the labor market. Read More
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Fourth District Employment Conditions
The Fourth District’s unemployment rate has continued to increase over the summer months from a low of 8.5 percent in April to a current reading of 8.8 percent for July. Read More
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Treading Water
August’s employment report showed that the labor market is treading water. Read More
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The Impact of GDP Revisions on Taylor Rule Estimations
Along with July’s advanced estimate for second-quarter GDP, the annual revisions for previous GDP estimates were released. Read More
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Interpreting the Recent Slowdown: Delayed Recovery or Stall Speed?
Economic activity has slowed markedly in recent months. After growing 3.14 percent in 2010, real GDP grew at a rate of only 0.7 percent during the first half of 2011. Read More
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Mortgage Market Continues to Struggle
The U.S. market for mortgage originations has continued to struggle through the second quarter. Read More
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Core Prices Edge Up in July
The headline CPI jumped up at an annualized rate of 6.2 percent in July, surprising forecasters’ expectations to the upside. Read More
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Household Finances
Consumption accounts for roughly 70 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). Consequently, households’ spending behavior is of utmost interest to policymakers. Read More
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Has the Over-the-Counter Derivatives Market Revived Yet?
Derivatives are financial instruments whose values depend on the values of other assets such as stocks, bonds, and commodities. Firms, banks, and investors can use derivatives to hedge various kinds of risks. Read More
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Recent Population Trends in the Midwest
The release of the latest Census data reveals that Cleveland’s population has fallen since the last census and dipped below the 400,000 mark. Read More
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Labor Market not So Anomalous After All
July’s employment report was welcome news, especially after the slowdowns in payroll growth that had occurred over the previous two months. Read More
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Why Is Investment So Soft?
Three and a half years after the beginning of the recession, real GDP is still below its pre-recession peak. Read More
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The Net International Investment Position
The United States has run a current-account deficit almost every year since 1982, primarily because U.S. residents have imported more goods and services than they have exported. Read More
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The Fourth District: The Next Big Energy Producer?
When asked about domestic oil and natural gas production and where most of it occurs, people will likely reply: the region surrounding the Gulf of Mexico. Read More
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Global Banking System Exposure to the Greek Sovereign Debt Crisis
In the past year, the Greek sovereign debt crisis has been the focus of much financial press. Read More
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A Subtle Shift in FOMC Policy
At his second press conference, Chairman Bernanke was asked whether the Fed would ever institute an explicit numerical inflation-targeting policy. Read More
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A Few Bad Apples Spoil June’s Price Statistics
Until recently, the debate between the “inflation is too high” crowd and the “subdued” inflation adherents had centered on the use of headline and core measures of inflation. Read More
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Are Underemployed Graduates Displacing Nongraduates?
The current recovery’s failure to produce robust job growth has focused attention on workers who are temporarily getting by in positions that are not good matches. Read More
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Shadow Inventory Still Weighing on Ohio Housing Prices
Home prices continue to trend down, both nationally and across Ohio. Read More
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Short- and Long-term Inflation Expectations
Inflation as measured by the Consumer price index (CPI) has picked up in recent months, following increases in food and energy prices. Read More
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Is the U.S. Labor Market Becoming More Sclerotic? And Does It Matter?
The U.S. economy continued to exhibit signs of a painfully slow recovery in the last month. Read More
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Small Business Lending Continues to Struggle
As the economy continues to grow at an anemic pace, questions remain about the condition of small business lending. Read More
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Short-Term Interest Rate Markets
A series of events dating back to November 2010 has significantly affected the functioning of short-term funding markets and, in turn, interest rates. Read More
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The Mysterious Boost in State Tax Revenues
In year-over-year terms, state tax revenues have been rising throughout 2010, reaching a high of 6.8 percent real growth in the fourth quarter. Read More
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Policymaking for the Future
It was one of the most highly anticipated events so far this year, and we are not talking about the royal wedding. Read More
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Manufacturing Hours and Employment in the Recovery
The labor market showed a bit of weakness in May, gaining only 54,000 jobs. This is well below the rate observed since the beginning of the year. The unemployment rate also ticked up by 0.1 percent to 9.1 percent. Read More
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Metropolitan and Micropolitan Population Growth
New data from the 2010 Census show that the U.S. population grew by 27.3 million people over the last decade. Read More
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Investment in Structures Is Still Depressed
The current business cycle has been atypical along many dimensions. The recession was one of the most severe, and the recovery has been one of the slowest. Read More
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Wages, Expectations, and Prospects for Inflation
Over the past six months, food and energy prices have risen at an annualized rate of 17 percent, prompting speculation of a possible price-wage spiral that will result in rampant inflation. Read More
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Mortgage Originations Struggle to Stay Afloat
While the rest of the economy is slowly recovering, the housing market still seems to be struggling. Read More
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Neighborhood Poverty Rates between 1970 and 2000
Official poverty statistics in the United States measure the percent of individuals whose income is below a threshold. Read More
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What’s Up with the Unemployment Rate?
The unemployment rate jumped back to 9 percent in April, after declining a full 1 percentage point between November 2010 and March. Read More
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Potential Risks Associated with an Itchy Trigger Finger
Recent comments on monetary policy have focused more and more on containing the inflationary risks posed by rising food and commodity prices. Read More
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Just an Oily Patch on the Road to Recovery?
The Bureau of Economic Analysis estimates that real GDP grew at an annual equivalent rate of 1.8 percent in the first quarter of 2011, down from a pace of 3.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2010. Read More
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Trends in Office Vacancy Rates
Since the onset of the financial crisis, everyone involved in financing and developing office properties has been watching trends in commercial real estate markets. Read More
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China’s Inflation
China’s inflation, which reached 5.4 percent on a year-over-year basis in March, is largely a product of that country’s desire to closely manage the renminbi-dollar exchange rate. Read More
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The Federal Reserve’s Influence Over Excess Reserves
As the economy continues to emerge from the recession, it is not yet clear how sustainable the recovery is. Read More
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Household Finances and a Sustainable Consumer Recovery
Consumption accounts for roughly 70 percent of gross domestic product. Read More
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Growing Cities, Shrinking Cities
As the 2010 census data rolls out, researchers will be conducting extensive analysis on a variety of issues. Read More
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The Recovery, Revised
The Labor Department recently released updated employment estimates for U.S. metropolitan areas (MSAs). Read More
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Fourth-Quarter GDP Growth and a Look Forward
Real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2010, originally reported in January as 3.2 percent, settled in at 3.1 percent following the two usual revisions. Read More
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Recent Developments in Inflation Expectations
Recent increases in energy and food prices have fed concerns about the prospect of inflation in the near future. Read More
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How Should We Measure Success?
In the nearly two and a half years since the onset of the financial crisis, the Fed has purchased over $2 trillion in long-term assets. Read More
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Bank Lending
It has been nearly two years since the National Bureau of Economic Research called an end to the recession, but concerns still remain about the strength of the recovery in bank lending. Read More
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The Cost of Food and Energy Across Consumers
Rising food and energy prices have been getting considerable attention recently. Read More
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What to Make of Rising Gas Prices and Falling Household Energy Prices
Yes, oil and commodity prices are increasing, and we are starting to see that increase expressed in retail prices. Read More
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The U.S. Labor Market Experience in a Global Context
The recent recession was felt around the globe. Read More
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Household and Corporate Balance Sheets
One reason for the striking severity of the last recession is the double whammy that struck household and corporate balance sheets. Read More
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Educational Attainment and Employment
Labor market experiences can be highly varied for individuals with different levels of educational attainment. Read More
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Some Prices Are Up, but Is That Inflation?
The headline Consumer Price Index jumped up at an annualized rate of 4.9 percent in January, following a 5.3 percent increase in December. Read More
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Mortgage Originations—A Mixed Bag
The mortgage market ended 2010 on a high note, with mortgage originations increasing for the third consecutive quarter and reversing a trend of three consecutive quarterly declines. Read More
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Economic Projections from the January FOMC Meeting
Four times a year, we get a glimpse of the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMCs) forecasts for economic growth, unemployment, and inflation. Read More
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Who Is Driving the Decline in the Labor Force Participation Rate?
The employment data released last Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics show that the unemployment rate has fallen by 0.4 percentage point, to 9.0 percent. Read More
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Is Consumer Spending Really “Driving” the Recovery?
According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate, in the fourth quarter of 2010, GDP increased at an annual equivalent rate of 3.2 percent. Read More
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Educational Attainment Trends in the Fourth District
Research in regional economic development has documented a strong link between the education levels of an area’s workforce and its economic performance. Read More
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Loans and Leases in Bank Credit
The U.S. economy has shown many signs that it is on the mend from the most severe economic contraction since the Great Depression. Read More
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The Execution of the AIG Exit Plan
On January 14, American International Group (AIG), paid down the remaining balances on its loans at the New York Fed—removing the Fed from any direct exposure to AIG, and in accordance with a recapitalization plan announced on September 30, 2010. Read More
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Foreign-Exchange Trading and the Dollar
The Bank for International Settlements released its triennial snapshot of the foreign-exchange market in December. Read More
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Household Financial Position
Household wealth took a dive in the recent recession from falling home prices and stock values, causing households to constrain spending and reduce their debt. Read More
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Trends in Household Income over the Past Decade
The past decade has been rough for households. The US economy experienced a small recession in 2001, grew rapidly through 2006, and then finished with a massive recession. Read More
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Fourth District Employment Conditions
Unemployment remains quite high in the nation and higher still in the Fourth District, though it has been nearly 18 months since the recovery began. Read More
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Commodity Prices and Investment in Structures
Nonresidential fixed investment in structures managed to (nearly) tread water in the third quarter, falling only 3.6 percent compared to a 13.5 percent drop over the previous four quarters. Read More
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A Cash Buildup and Business Investment
As the economic recovery continues at a slow pace, some observers point to the vast cash reserves sitting on corporate balance sheets as one reason for a lack of more robust job creation. Read More
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The Accuracy of CPI Inflation Forecasts
In a recent study we compared the accuracy of different techniques for forecasting future CPI inflation and found that forecast accuracy varied a lot over time and technique. Read More