On Disinflation since 1982: An Application of Change-Point Tests
This paper examines recent changes in the statistical properties of alternative measures of core inflation. For long periods since 1982, core inflation has behaved as if it were generated by a process with a fixed mean and serially independent error term. The authors use nonparametric tests to identify statistically significant change points in the fixed mean. For all measures of core inflation considered, changes in the inflation rate trend have been infrequent and, for the most part, rather abrupt.
Suggested citation: Bryden, Edward, and John Carlson. “On Disinflation since 1982: An Application of Change-Point Tests,” Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Review, vol. 30, no. 1, pp. 31-42, 03.01.1994.