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Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics Conference 2021

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European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland's Center for Inflation Research

October 7–8, 2021


The European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland’s Center for Inflation Research held the Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics Conference 2021 virtually and by invite only on October 7–8. The conference brought together top researchers from academia, central banks, and other policy institutions to present research findings related to inflation.

Scientific Committee:

DAY 1

All Times in EDT

Opening Remarks | video

9:00-9:15 am
Isabel Schnabel, Executive Board, European Central Bank

Price Setting and Inflation | video

9:15-10:15 am
Chair: Chiara Osbat, European Central Bank

Empirical Investigation of a Sufficient Statistic for Monetary Shocks
Andrea Ferrara, Northwestern University
Fernando Alvarez, University of Chicago
Erwan Gautier, Banque de France
Hervé Le Bihan, Banque de France and Banco de España
Francesco Lippi, LUISS University

Measuring Price Selection in Microdata: It’s Not There
Peter Karadi, European Central Bank
Raphael Schoenle, Brandeis University and Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Jesse Wursten, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven

Break

10:15-10:30 am

Parallel Paper Sessions

10:30-11:30
Chairs: Christiane Nickel, European Central Bank and Ed Knotek, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Medium-vs. Short-Term Consumer Inflation Expectations: Evidence from a New Euro Area Survey
Ewa Stanislawska, Narodowy Bank Polski
Maritta Paloviita, Suomen Pankki

Understanding Persistent ZLB: Theory and Assessments
Pablo Cuba-Borda, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Sanjay R. Singh, University of California, Davis

New Evidence on Monetary Transmission: Interest Rate Versus Inflation Target Shocks
Elizaveta Lukmanova, Université catholique de Louvain
Katrin Rabitsch, Vienna University of Economics and Business

Small Price Changes, Sales Volume, and Menu Cost
Avichai Snir, Netanya Academic College
Doron Sayag, Bar-IIan University
Daniel Levy, Bar-Ilan University, Emory University, International School of Economics Tbilisi, and Rimini Center for Economic Analysis

Public Information and Survey Expectations
Rosen Valchev, Boston College
Luca Gemmi, Boston College

Do Sticky Wages Matter? New Evidence from Matched Firm-Survey and Register Data
Anne-Kathrin Funk, KOF Swiss Economic Institute
Daniel Kaufmann, University of Neuchâtel

New Facts on Consumer Price Rigidity in the Euro Area
Erwan Gautier, Banque de France
Cristina Conflitti, Banca d’Italia
Riemer Faber, Charles River Associates
Brian Fabo, Národná banka Slovenska
Ludmila Fadejeva, Latvijas Banka
Valentin Bernard Jouvanceau, Lietuvos bankas
Jan-Oliver Menz, Deutsche Bundesbank
Teresa Messner, Oesterreichische Nationalbank
Pavlos Petroulas, Bank of Greece
Pau Roldan-Blanco, Banco de España
Fabio Rumler, Österreichische Nationalbank
Sergio Santoro, Banca d’Italia
Elisabeth Wieland, Deutsche Bundesbank
Hélène Zimmer, National Bank of Belgium

Endogenous Growth, Downward Wage Rigidities and Optimal Inflation
Agostino Consolo, European Central Bank
Mirko Abbritti, Universita degli Studi di Perugia
Sebastian Weber, International Monetary Fund

Break

11:30-11:45 am

Policy Panel | video

11:45am-12:30pm
Chairs: Christiane Nickel, European Central Bank and Ed Knotek, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Moderator: Sabrina Marggraf, n-tv

Philip Lane, Executive Board, European Central Bank
Loretta J. Mester, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Inflation Expectations | video

12:30–2:00 pm
Chair: Mathieu Pedemonte, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

The Inflation Expectations of US Firms: Evidence from a New Survey
Yuriy Gorodnichenko, University of California, Berkeley
Bernardo Candia, University of California, Berkeley
Olivier Coibion, University of Texas at Austin

Effective Policy Communication: Targets Versus Instruments
Michael Weber, University of Chicago
Francesco D’Acunto, Boston College
Daniel Hoang, Karlsruher Institut für Technologie
Maritta Paloviita, Suomen Pankki

Selection in Information Acquisition and Monetary Non-Neutrality
Hassan Afrouzi, Columbia University
Choongryul Yang, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

End of day one

2:00 pm


DAY 2

All Times in EDT

Keynote | video

9:00–9:45 am
Chair: Robert Rich, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Average Inflation Targeting and Household Expectations
Olivier Coibion, University of Texas at Austin

Break

9:45-10:00 am

Empirical Models | video

10:00-11:00 am
Chair: Ed Knotek, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Inflation at Risk
Francesca Loria, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
David Lopez-Salido, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Long-Run Phillips Curve is…a Curve: The Long-Run Output Gap, Inflation and Monetary Policy
Paolo Bonomolo, De Nederlandsche Bank
Guido Ascari, University of Oxford
Qazi Haque, The University of Adelaide

Break

11:00-11:15 am

Structural Phillips Curves | video

11:15 am-12:45 pm
Chair: Raphael Schoenle, Brandeis University and Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

New Pricing Models, Same Old Phillips Curves?
Ludwig Straub, Harvard University
Adrien Auclert, Stanford University
Rodolfo Dinis Rigato, Harvard University
Matthew Rognlie, Northwestern University

Endogenous Production Networks and Non-Linear Monetary Transmission
Mishel Ghassibe, University of Oxford

Aggregation and Redistribution in New Keynesian Economies
Elisa Rubbo, Princeton University

Break

12:45pm-1:00pm

Keynote | video

1:00–1:45 am
Chair: Michele Lenza, European Central Bank

The Slope of the Phillips Curve: Evidence from US States
Emi Nakamura, University of California, Berkley

Closing Remarks | video

1:45-2:00pm

Please direct any conference questions to: inflation.conference@clev.frb.org