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Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics Conference 2019

The Center for Inflation Research is a new initiative of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. We are very excited about this initiative and the contributions it will make across multiple audiences, and you can sign up here to receive updates as our efforts move forward.

Day One — Thursday, May 16, 2019

8:00 – 8:30 am Registration and Continental Breakfast
8:30 – 8:45 am Welcome and Opening Remarks
Loretta J. Mester, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Session I

Chair: Todd Clark, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
8:45 – 9:45 am Trade Exposure and the Evolution of Inflation Dynamics

Simon Gilchrist, New York University, paper, presentation
Egon Zakrajšek, Federal Reserve Board of Governors

Discussant: Tony Zhang, Boston University, discussion
9:45 – 10:45 am Asymmetries and Non-Linearities in Exchange Rate Pass-Through

Mina Kim, Bureau of Labor Statistics, paper, presentation
Logan T. Lewis, Federal Reserve Board of Governors
Robert J. Vigfusson, Federal Reserve Board of Governors

Discussant: Andres Drenik, Columbia University, discussion
10:45 – 11:00 am Refreshment Break
11:00 am – Noon Price Trends Over the Product Life Cycle and the Optimal U.K. Inflation Target

Klaus Adam, University of Oxford, Nuffield College & CEPR
Henning Weber, Deutsche Bundesbank, paper, presentation

Discussant: Alexander Wolman, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, discussion
Noon – 1:00 pm Lunch

Session II

Chair: Robert Rich, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
1:00 – 2:00 pm Expectations Formation, Sticky Prices, and the ZLB

Betsy Bersson, Federal Reserve Board of Governors
Patrick Hürtgen, Deutsche Bundesbank
Matthias Paustian, Federal Reserve Board of Governors, paper, presentation

Discussant: Jeffrey Campbell, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
2:00 – 3:00 pm Empirical Properties of Inflation Expectations and the Zero Lower Bound

Mirko Wiederholt, Sciences Po and CEPR, paper, presentation

Discussant: Philippe Andrade, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, discussion
3:00 – 3:15 pm Refreshment Break
3:15 – 4:15 pm Do You Know That I Know That You Know: Higher Order Expectations in Survey Data

Olivier Coibion, University of Texas at Austin and NBER
Yuriy Gorodnichenko, University of California, Berkeley and NBER
Saten Kumar, Auckland University of Technology
Jane Ryngaert, Wake Forest University, paper, presentation

Discussant: Olivier Armantier, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, discussion
4:15 – 5:15 pm IQ, Expectations, and Choice

Francesco D'Acunto, Boston College
Daniel Hoang, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
Maritta Paloviita, Bank of Finland
Michael Weber, University of Chicago Booth School of Business, paper, presentation

Discussant: Eric Sims, University of Notre Dame, discussion
5:30 - 6:30 pm Reception and Poster Session

Exchange Rates, Retailers, and Importing: Theory and Firm-Level Evidence
Patrick Alexander, Bank of Canada, Alex Chernoff, Bank of Canada, paper

What's Behind Firms' Inflation Forecasts?
Cristina Conflitti, Banca d'Italia, paper
Roberta Zizza, Banca d'Italia

Micro-Macro Moments: Time- vs. State-Dependent Pricing?
Gee Hee Hong, International Monetary Fund, paper
Matthew Klepacz, College of William & Mary
Ernesto Pastén, Central Bank of Chile and Toulouse School of Economics
Raphael Schoenle, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and Brandeis University

Price Setting and Volatility: Evidence from Oil Price Volatility Shocks
Matthew Klepacz, College of William & Mary, paper

Perceptions and Expectations of Inflation by U.S. Households
Sandor Axelrod, Federal Reserve Board of Governors
David Lebow, Federal Reserve Board of Governors, paper

Ekaterina Peneva, Federal Reserve Board of Governors

Imperfect Information, Shock Heterogeneity and Inflation Dynamics
Tatsushi Okuda, Bank of Japan paper
Tomohiro Tsuruga, Bank of Japan
Francesco Zanetti, University of Oxford
6:45 pm Dinner

Introduction of Dinner Speaker
Ellis Tallman, Executive Vice President and Director of Research

Keynote dinner speaker: Philipp Hartmann, European Central Bank, paper, speech, speech slides

Day Two — Friday, May 17, 2019

8:15 – 8:45 am Continental Breakfast

Session III

Chair: Edward S. Knotek II, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
8:45 – 9:45 am Price Selection

Carlos Carvalho, Central Bank of Brazil and Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro, paper, presentation
Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Bank of Canada
Discussant: Peter Karadi, European Central Bank, discussion
9:45 – 10:45 am Pipeline Pressures and Sectoral Inflation Dynamics

Frank Smets, European Central Bank, Ghent University, and CEPR
Joris Tielens, National Bank of Belgium and Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, paper, presentation
Jan Van Hove, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven and KBC Bank

Discussant: Hafedh Bouakez, HEC-Montréal, discussion
10:45 – 11:00 am Refreshment Break
11:00 – Noon Heterogeneous Price Rigidities and Monetary Policy

Christopher Clayton, Harvard University
Xavier Jaravel, London School of Economics and Political Science
Andreas Schaab, Harvard University, paper, presentation

Discussant: Andres Blanco, University of Michigan, discussion
Noon – 1:00 pm Lunch