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2016 Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics Conference

Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics

September 29 – 30, 2016
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

   Day One — Thursday, September 29, 2016

8:00 am Registration and Continental Breakfast
8:30 am Welcome and Opening Remarks
Loretta J. Mester, President and Chief Executive Officer

Session I

Chair: Ellis Tallman, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
8:45 am “In Search of a Nominal Anchor: What Drives Inflation Expectations?”, PDF

Carlos Viana de Carvalho, Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio de Janeiro
Stefano Eusepi, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, slides
Emanuel Moench, Deutsche Bundesbank
Bruce Preston, University of Melbourne

Discussant: Elmar Mertens, Federal Reserve Board of Governors, slides
9:45 am “Ambiguity, Monetary Policy and Trend Inflation”, PDF

Riccardo M. Masolo, Bank of England
Francesca Monti, Bank of England, slides

Discussant: Argia Sbordone, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, slides
10:45 am Refreshment Break
11:00 am “Rational Sunspots”, PDF

Guido Ascari, University of Oxford
Paolo Bonomolo, Sveriges Riksbank, slides
Hedibert F. Lopes, INSPER

Discussant: Leonardo Melosi, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, slides
Noon Lunch

Session II

Chair: Edward S. Knotek II, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
1:00 pm “The Elusive Costs of Inflation: Price Dispersion during the U.S. Great Inflation”, PDF

Emi Nakamura, Columbia University, slides
Jón Steinsson, Columbia University
Patrick Sun, Federal Communications Commission
Daniel Villar, Columbia University

Discussant: Étienne Gagnon, Federal Reserve Board of Governors, slides
2:00 pm “Inflation Expectations, Learning and Supermarket Prices: Evidence from Survey Experiments”, PDF

Alberto Cavallo, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, slides
Guillermo Cruces, CEDLAS-FCE-UNLP
Ricardo Perez-Truglia, Microsoft

Discussant: Wändi Bruine de Bruin, Leeds University Business School, slides
3:00 pm Refreshment Break
3:15 pm “Persistent Monetary Non-Neutrality in an Estimated Model with Menu Costs and Partially Costly Information”

Marco Bonomo, INSPER
Carlos Viana de Carvalho, Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio de Janeiro, slides
René Garcia, EDHEC
Vivian Malta, World Bank

Discussant: Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Bank of Canada, slides
4:15 pm “The Propagation of Monetary Policy Shocks in a Heterogeneous Production Economy”, PDF

Ernesto Pasten, Central Bank of Chile
Raphael Schoenle, Brandeis University, slides
Michael Weber, University of Chicago

Discussant: Francisco Ruge-Murcia, McGill University, slides
5:30 pm Reception and Dinner

Keynote dinner speaker: Athanasios Orphanides, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, slides

   Day Two — Friday, September 30, 2016

8:15am Continental Breakfast

Session III

Chair: Todd E. Clark, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
8:45 am “Tails of Inflation Forecasts and Tales of Monetary Policy”, PDF

Philippe Andrade, Banque de France, slides
Eric Ghysels, University of North Carolina
Julien Idier, Banque de France

Discussant: James Mitchell, University of Warwick, slides
9:45 am “Sectoral Inflation Measures and Cyclically Sensitive Inflation”

James H. Stock, Harvard University, slides
Mark W. Watson, Princeton University

Discussant: Jonathan Wright, Johns Hopkins University, slides
10:45 am Refreshment Break
11:00 am “The Risky Steady State and the Interest Rate Lower Bound”, PDF

Timothy Hills, New York University
Taisuke Nakata, Federal Reserve Board of Governors, slides
Sebastian Schmidt, European Central Bank

Discussant: Bora─čan Aruoba, University of Maryland, slides
Noon Lunch and Adjournment