We use flows into and out of unemployment to estimate the unemployment rate over the next year. This approach produces less stark projections for the unemployment rate over the course of the next year than some of the more alarming projections that have been reported. Using our approach and assuming that the severest social-distancing measures will be lifted in June, we estimate that the unemployment rate will peak in May at about 16 percent but gradually decline thereafter and end the year at 7.5 percent. Read More
Upcoming EventsSEE ALL
The conference will provide researchers an opportunity to present findings related to inflation. Global health conditions and travel restrictions necessitate that this conference will take place virtually. Links to the virtual conference sessions will be shared as they become available.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and the Office of Financial Research will hold the 2020 Financial Stability conference on November 19-20, 2020, in Cleveland, OH.