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  • Labor Market Tightness across the United States since the Great Recession

    Murat Tasci Caitlin Treanor

    Though labor market statistics are often reported and discussed at the national level, conditions can vary quite a bit across individual states. We explore differences in these labor market conditions across US states before and after the Great Recession using a ratio of the number of unemployed workers to job vacancies. We show that the intensity of the adverse effects of the recession and the strength of the recovery varied geographically at all points in the process. We also demonstrate that wage growth is delayed until the ratio of unemployed workers to job vacancies returns to prerecession levels. Read More

  • A look back at the financial crisis: What did we learn? What’s changed?

    Michelle Park Lazette

    Ten years after the start of the nation’s unprecedented financial crisis, Cleveland Fed examiners and others reflect on what happened and detail how things have changed in response to it. Read More

  • Small Business Credit Survey

    The fourth in a series of reports based on the 2016 Small Business Credit Survey (SBCS), this report details findings on the financing experiences and outcomes of the smallest firms in the US. Microbusinesses—a category of small firms comprising both nonemployer firms and firms with fewer than 5 employees—account for 9 in 10 firms in the US. The SBCS finds that microbusinesses face greater challenges than larger small firms and are less able to access financing. Read More

  • Have Inflation Dynamics Changed?

    Edward S. Knotek II Saeed Zaman

    Using a flexible statistical model to project inflation outcomes into the future, this Commentary finds that the most likely path for inflation based on recent inflation dynamics is generally similar to what would have been expected given inflation dynamics in the late 1990s, but there is more uncertainty around the forecast now than in the late 1990s. Read More

  • Financial Stability and Fintech Conference on Nov 30-Dec 1 in DC, sponsored by Cleveland Fed, OFR, and University of Maryland

    Randal K. Quarles, member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and vice chair for supervision, to deliver luncheon keynote on Nov 30 Read More

  • Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland announces officer appointment

    Jackie Dalton was appointed assistant vice president. Dalton is responsible for overseeing the consumer compliance and corporate compliance risk teams in the Bank's Supervision and Regulation Department. Read More

  • Columbus—A Still Low, but Rising, Unemployment Rate

    Guhan Venkatu Christopher Vecchio Sarah Mattson

    The Columbus metro area’s unemployment rate has risen more than half a percentage point (to 4.3 percent) since April. Nevertheless, the metro area’s employment expanded by 2.0 percent, outpacing both the state and the nation. All major industries shared in this employment growth, with many sectors experiencing stronger gains in the metro area than in the nation. Home price gains remained robust, exceeding 5 percent on a year-over-year basis as of August, and the average number of permits issued per month for new housing units in the metro area has been substantially higher this year than in prior years. Per capita consumer debt levels remain stable, and credit card delinquency rates remain below both state and national averages. Finally, the Columbus metro area’s real per capita GDP grew 2.1 percent in 2016, a deceleration from the growth rate registered by the metro area in 2015. Read More

  • Toledo—Pace of Growth Has Slowed

    Joel Elvery Christopher Vecchio

    The economy of the Toledo metro area has continued to grow, but the pace of growth appears to have slowed relative to the strong growth seen in 2014 and 2015. For example, per capita gross domestic product rose only half a percent in 2016, compared to an average of 2.7 percent in 2014 and 2015. Employment growth also slowed, with employment growing 0.5 percent between March 2016 and March 2017, compared to growth of 1.6 percent between March 2014 and March 2015. Perhaps most troubling is that the metro area’s credit card delinquency rate and unemployment rate are rising. On the plus side, housing prices experienced their strongest growth in more than a decade. Read More

  • Productivity Growth and Real Interest Rates in the Long Run

    Kurt G. Lunsford

    Despite the unemployment rate's return to low levels, inflation-adjusted or "real" interest rates have remained negative. One popular explanation for persistently negative real interest rates is that long-run productivity growth has slowed. I study the long-run relationship between real interest rates and productivity growth from 1914 to 2016 and find a negative correlation between these two variables. Hence, low productivity growth has been historically associated with high real interest rates. Since World War II, the correlation between these variables has been near zero. This suggests that slow long-run productivity growth is not driving real interest rates to be persistently negative. Read More

  • Do Foreign-Born Workers Cause Native-Born Workers to Move or Leave the Labor Force?

    Roberto Pinheiro Allan Dizioli

    This Commentary discusses how the presence of foreign-born workers in a local labor market affects the decisions of native-born workers to leave the labor force or move to another state. We analyze short panels obtained through the Current Population Survey and find that, in the short run, less-educated native-born workers react to a larger stock of foreign-born workers by either moving to a different state or dropping out of the labor force. In terms of magnitude, the effect is small but not insignificant. Read More