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Employment and Unemployment

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  • The Decline in Access to Jobs and the location of Employment Growth in US Metro Areas: Implications for Economic Opportunity and Mobility

    Increasing workers’ access to jobs has been found to significantly decrease the duration of joblessness among lower-income unemployed workers. Policies that influence the location of employment growth within a metro area could impact the pace of the labor market recovery from the COVID-19-induced recession. By studying trends in job access, we discern developments that might inform our policy choices. Read More  

  • Layoffs during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Four Findings from WARN Act Data

    With economic conditions changing so rapidly during the COVID-19 pandemic, the standard layoff indicators that policymakers and analysts use are falling short. Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) Act data—a more timely indicator—reveal four findings about job loss during this pandemic. Read More  

  • Assessing Layoffs in Four Midwestern States during the Pandemic Recession

    We use WARN data to assess layoffs in four Midwestern states during the current pandemic-induced recession—Kentucky, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. The data come from the advance layoff notices filed under the Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) Act. We find that the number of workers affected by layoff announcements rose sharply in the second half of March and April, and unexpected changes in economic conditions meant that workers received little advance notice before layoff. Layoff announcements have affected workers across these four states, and workers in mining and leisure and hospitality have been affected the most. Most recently, the number of workers affected by WARN notices has almost returned to prerecession levels. Read More  

  • Estimating the Trend Unemployment Rate in the Fourth Federal Reserve District

    We estimate trend unemployment rates for Ohio, Pennsylvania, Kentucky, and West Virginia, states that span parts of the Fourth District of the Federal Reserve System. Our estimated unemployment rate trend for the District as a whole stood at 5.7 percent in 2020:Q1 compared to a 4.7 percent observed unemployment rate within the District, implying a tight labor market by historical standards. Read More  

  • For Too Many Minority Workers, Earnings Still Don’t Add Up

    Gaps in earnings—the annual wage of workers aged 16 and older—matter. While there are some reasons for optimism, there is also a need for ongoing vigilance about how this economy is playing out in real time for minority workers and their families. Read More