Two Approaches to Predicting the Path of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Is One Better?

We compare two types of models used to predict the spread of the coronavirus, both of which have been used by government officials and agencies. We describe the nature of the difference between the two approaches and their advantages and limitations. We compare examples of each type of model—the University of Washington IHME or “Murray” model, which follows a curve-fitting approach, and the Ohio State University model, which follows a structural approach. Read More  

Economic Inclusion 2000–2020: Labor Market Trends by Race in the US and States

This Commentary examines the extent to which disparities exist between Blacks and whites in labor market outcomes such as levels of labor force participation, unemployment rates, and earnings. To gauge whether disparities have narrowed or widened since 2000, national trends in these outcomes during the past two decades are compared to the trends in three states: Kentucky, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Finally, to assess the current state of economic inclusion as reflected in the labor market, gaps in Black and white outcomes are compared across US states in 2020. Read More  

Skills Are Bridges Not Gaps: A Skills-Based Approach for Transitioning Workers to Higher-Paying Occupations

Skills-based hiring practices—those that prioritize skills necessary to succeed in a role over formal educational credentials—show potential for securing higher positions for lower-wage workers and helping employers get the workers they need. Read More  

Opportunity Occupations: A Way Ahead for People without a College Degree

People with bachelor’s degrees typically earn better wages and experience higher employment rates than workers who do not. Yet, more than two-thirds of US adults currently do not have a college degree. Since 2015, the Cleveland Fed, in partnership with Atlanta and Philadelphia Feds, has been exploring these trends by identifying occupations that pay above the national annual median wage and are generally accessible to those without a four-year college degree. Read More  

For Too Many Minority Workers, Earnings Still Don’t Add Up

Gaps in earnings—the annual wage of workers aged 16 and older—matter. While there are some reasons for optimism, there is also a need for ongoing vigilance about how this economy is playing out in real time for minority workers and their families. Read More