An inverted Treasury yield curve—a yield curve where short-term Treasury interest rates are higher than long-term Treasury interest rates—is a good predictor of recessions. Because of this, economists and policymakers often assess the risk of a yield curve inversion when the yield curve is flattening. I study the forecastability of yield curve inversions. Read More
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DEADLINE EXTENDED - Submit papers for the Annual IJCB Research Conference, June 4-5, 2019, "Commodity Prices and Monetary Policy: New Theory and Evidence" by December 22, 2018.
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