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Monetary Policy with Judgment


We consider two approaches to incorporate judgment into DSGE models. First, Bayesian estimation indirectly imposes judgment via priors on model parameters, which are then mapped into a judgmental interest rate decision. Standard priors are shown to be associated with highly unrealistic judgmental decisions. Second, judgmental interest rate decisions are directly provided by the decision maker and incorporated into a formal statistical decision rule using frequentist procedures. When the observed interest rates are interpreted as judgmental decisions, they are found to be consistent with DSGE models for long stretches of time, but excessively tight in the 1980s and late 1990s and excessively loose in the late 1970s and early 2000s.

JEL Codes: E50, E58, E47, C12, C13.
Keywords: Monetary Policy, DSGE, Maximum Likelihood, Statistical Decision Theory.


Suggested citation: Gelain, Paolo, and Simone Manganelli. 2020. “Monetary Policy with Judgment.” Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Working Paper No. 20-14. https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-wp-202014.

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