The World Economy
In September, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) published its second biannual World Economic Outlook. The Outlook predicts that aggregate real GDP for the 175 countries covered will grow 5.0% in 2004, the highest world growth rate in nearly three decades. It also expects that growth will moderate to 4.3% in 2005, partly because of rapidly rising oil costs. According to many standard economic models, including the IMF’s, an oil price increase of $8 per barrel reduces global GDP growth by about 0.5%. After the Outlook was published, spot and futures oil prices rose above their September levels.
Suggested citation: "The World Economy." Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Trends, no. 04-11, p. 8-9, 11.01.2004.