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Predicting Oil Prices

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Bad as the economic consequences of higher oil prices may be, the fog surrounding their future path compounds the problem. To gain some clarity, many observers have looked to oil futures prices as a quick and easy means of forecasting where spot oil prices are headed. Unfortunately, futures prices are not very accurate predictors.

Suggested citation: "Predicting Oil Prices," Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Trends, no. 04-10, pp. 08, 10.01.2004.

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