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Revisions of Employment Data

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The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly employment report may be the most widely followed economic release. There is evidence that when its establishment survey reports an unanticipated change in nonfarm employment, it can affect long-term interest rates immediately. One research paper found that an unanticipated increase of 200,000 jobs for the most recent month is associated with an increase of 6 basis points in the 30-year Treasury rate, all else being equal. The scatter-plot above shows that unanticipated employment increases for the most recent month are generally associated with rate increases in the 10-year Treasury note.

Suggested citation: "Revisions of Employment Data," Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Trends, no. 04-08, pp. 13, 08.01.2004.

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