Changes in the GDP
The advance estimate for real GDP growth in 2004:IQ was 4.2%, slightly above the previous quarter’s 4.1% final estimate but below the Blue Chip economists’ forecast of 4.3%. Nonetheless, most observers remain upbeat because the growth was fairly broad based. Personal consumption expenditures, the largest contributor to real GDP growth in 2003:IVQ, rose 3.8%, led by nondurables (up 6.5%) and services (up 4.3%). Spending on durables dipped 4.7%, but was still up 9.6% from the previous four quarters. Business fixed investment, the second largest contributor to growth, was up 7.2%. Investment in equipment rose 11.4%, but investment in structures fell 6.6%. Residential investment also slowed, up only 2.1%, far less than the 8.8% of the previous four quarters.
Suggested citation: "Changes in the GDP," Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Trends, no. 04-05, pp. 10-11, 05.01.2004.