Although GDP growth has exceeded 4% over the last year, manufacturing is still in the doldrums. For the first six quarters after the most recent business cycle peak in March 2001, manufacturing industrial production fell slightly less than the historical average for business cycles. Since then it has stalled, and now lags significantly below the typical level. In fact, its above-average performance early on is a bit misleading because by the time of the last official business cycle peak, manufacturing industrial production had already declined almost 3% from its own peak in June 2000.
Suggested citation: "GDP Growth," Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Trends, no. 04-04, pp. 11, 04.01.2004.