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Economic Activity

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According to the Commerce Department’s revised estimate, the annualized growth rate of real GDP in 2003:IVQ was 4.1%, a modest increase from the 4.0% reported in the initial estimate. The Blue Chip panel of economists’ forecast of output growth in 2004:IQ was also revised slightly upward in February, from 4.4% to 4.5%. Their estimate for 2003:IVQ was 4.3%, a little higher than the actual number, but the most recent Commerce Department revision shrinks the difference. Imports had the largest negative impact, taking 2.15 percentage points (pp) from output growth in the fourth quarter. Exports, meanwhile, made a positive contribution of 1.85 pp to output growth.

Suggested citation: "Economic Activity," Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Trends, no. 04-03, pp. 10-11, 03.01.2004.

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