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The Economy in Perspective

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History in the making … Although most economists think the recession that began in March 2001 concluded nearly a year ago, no official endpoint has yet been announced. Criteria for dating business cycles rely on widespread evidence of cumulative changes in income, employment, industrial production, and sales to pin down the timing of cyclical peaks and troughs. As the National Bureau of Economic Research’s Business Cycle Dating Committee stated on November 5, “The behavior of the economy in the first eight months of 2002 indicates that the decline in activity that began last year may have come to an end. But recent data indicate that additional time is needed to be confident about the interpretation of the movements of the economy last year and this year.”

Suggested citation: "The Economy in Perspective," Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Trends, no. 02-11, pp. 01, 11.01.2002.

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