According to the advance estimate for 2001:IIIQ, real GDP fell at an annualized rate of 0.4%, the first economic contraction since 1993. This figure suggests the economy may have slipped into a recession for the first time since 1991. The fall in output was somewhat less than the consensus Blue Chip forecast of –0.6%. An even larger decline in real output is forecast for 2001:IVQ, but the economy is expected to pick up again in 2002.
Suggested citation: "Economic Activity," Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Trends, no. 01-11, pp. 10-11, 11.01.2001.