The advance estimate for the National Income and Product Accounts, released April 27, reported output growth of 2.0% in 2000:IQ—much stronger than had been expected. (The Blue Chip forecast for the first quarter was for less than 1% growth.) Some might interpret this surprising strength as a sign that further reductions in the Federal Open Market Committee’s intended federal funds rate will be unnecessary, or even that the target should be raised. More realistically, only time will tell whether the quarter was merely a pause or in fact was the floor of the recent economic slowdown.
Suggested citation: "Economic Activity," Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Trends, no. 01-05, pp. 10-11, 05.01.2001.