The yield curve continues to show a humped shape, with long rates falling since last month. The peak of the curve has moved toward a shorter maturity, to the two-year yield from last month’s peak at seven years. It is interesting to see that the spreads that historically have predicted recessions most accurately remain positive, at least for the Treasury constant-maturity series. The 3-year, 3-month spread stands at 65 basis points (bp) and the 10-year, 3-month spread at 25 bp.
Suggested citation: "Interest Rates," Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Trends, no. 00-04, pp. 06, 04.01.2000.