The 4.1% preliminary (second) estimate of real GDP growth in 1999:IQ was only slightly lower than the 4.5% advance (first) estimate released in April. A revision of 0.4 is not unusual. Past experience suggests that 90% of the time the revision is between –0.9 and +1.4 of the advance estimate. Factors contributing to the downward revision included a stronger drag from increased net imports (–0.12), and slightly lower estimates of consumption spending (–0.1) and inventory investment (–0.16). The Blue Chip consensus forecast of GDP for the rest of 1999 increased once again, and now indicates an expectation of above-average growth for the year.
Suggested citation: "Economic Activity," Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Trends, no. 99-06, pp. 09-10, 06.01.1999.